Weak system Saturday morning.... Winter storm next week?

>> Friday, February 07, 2014

A weak area of low pressure will lift up just off the Carolina coast Saturday and throw some precip into the region early tomorrow morning. However, the precip amounts looks light, so this won't be a big deal. Having said that, don't be shocked to see a little light snow or light rain, with the best chance of snow the farther north and west you go. Again though....not a big deal.

Then we will gear up for next week. It's been interesting to watch the adjustments in the modeling for next week over the past several days. Almost every run of every model has indicated winter weather for a large portion of the region, but there have been some very significant differences in timing and type of system between the models and even between runs of the same model.

Just take the GFS today... last night's 0z run was the weakest and fastest model with the system by far. Then 6 hours later with it's 6z run, it's gone to the slowest solution and much more intense than what it had on the 0z.

I show lots of graphics for next week in my video today, and I encourage you to take a look. The bottom line is that I think the odds currently favor winter weather for portions of the region next week. However, the timing and types of precip are still very much in question, and there is obviously still lots of time for changes.

I also give you some thoughts in the video about what is most likely to go 'wrong' for winter weather fans if indeed something does.

Here's the video:

1 comments:

Shelbe Oldham 6:00 AM  

Come on EAST! What's been brewing? Waited all weekend for your forecast. Fingers crossed for BIG snow event!

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