>> Friday, January 27, 2012
Here's today's video. In it, I look at our weekend weather, our next system next week, and some thoughts on a potential February pattern change.
A cold front is zipping east through the region this morning, and that front will rather quickly sweep out any remaining showers. Mild, breezy conditions will unfold today with highs in the 60s for most.
A nice weekend is on tap with highs tomorrow in the upper 50s and lower 60s with lots of sun and then low to maybe mid 50s Sunday with sunshine.
Monday will be the chilliest of the upcoming days with highs shy of 50 in many spots despite a sunny sky.
Timing questions remain, but at the moment, the models favor Thursday as the most likely time-frame for our next rain-maker to move through.
Still nothing I am ready to bet the farm on, but I do see some signs on the longer-range modeling of a change in the overall pattern in North America as we progress into February. See the video for the graphics demonstrating this.
With the 0z runs today, both the GFS and the European model show signs of developing a tall PNA ridge....in other words, a big ridge up the west coast all of the way into Alaska. This would be a significant change from what has occurred the majority of winter thus far.
Now, various models have shown something like this at times this winter, only for it not to verify. But, to my memory, this is the first time I have seen such good agreement on this general idea between both the European and the GFS model, so the idea might have some credence.
Like I said, I am not all in yet. However, if that idea is correct, it would definitely favor a colder pattern in the eastern and even central US.