Nice weekend ahead....February thoughts...

>> Friday, January 27, 2012

Here's today's video. In it, I look at our weekend weather, our next system next week, and some thoughts on a potential February pattern change.

A cold front is zipping east through the region this morning, and that front will rather quickly sweep out any remaining showers. Mild, breezy conditions will unfold today with highs in the 60s for most.

A nice weekend is on tap with highs tomorrow in the upper 50s and lower 60s with lots of sun and then low to maybe mid 50s Sunday with sunshine.

Monday will be the chilliest of the upcoming days with highs shy of 50 in many spots despite a sunny sky.

Next week...

Timing questions remain, but at the moment, the models favor Thursday as the most likely time-frame for our next rain-maker to move through.


Still nothing I am ready to bet the farm on, but I do see some signs on the longer-range modeling of a change in the overall pattern in North America as we progress into February. See the video for the graphics demonstrating this.

With the 0z runs today, both the GFS and the European model show signs of developing a tall PNA other words, a big ridge up the west coast all of the way into Alaska. This would be a significant change from what has occurred the majority of winter thus far.

Now, various models have shown something like this at times this winter, only for it not to verify. But, to my memory, this is the first time I have seen such good agreement on this general idea between both the European and the GFS model, so the idea might have some credence.

Like I said, I am not all in yet. However, if that idea is correct, it would definitely favor a colder pattern in the eastern and even central US.


Next system approaching...

>> Thursday, January 26, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video....

Our next storm system is approaching the region today. We will have a good amount of clouds ahead of the system, and a few showers are possible this afternoon.

However, most of the shower activity with this system will occur tonight in the Carolinas. There has been a marked decrease in the rain amounts on most modeling, so it looks like our rain totals could wind up below 0.50" in many spots, and maybe below 0.25" for many.

Severe weather is a concern today across a good chunk of Mississippi, Alabama, southeast Louisiana, the western Florida Panhandle, and into western Georgia by this evening. However, this is not the same type animal compared to the system late Sunday into Monday morning, so I do not expect nearly the level of severe weather that occurred with that system.

The showers should exit our region early in the day tomorrow, and then we will be set up for a dry weekend with temperatures a bit cooler. Overall, the weather this weekend will cooperate nicely for any outdoor plans you have, unlike last weekend.

Nothing really exciting brewing in the longer range, and I am still on the fence as to how the February pattern will unfold.


Quiet and fairly mild system already taking shape...

>> Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Here is today's edition of the it, I look at our next system, the weekend forecast, and a look into next week.....

An area of low pressure over Texas is really cranking the rain this morning from Texas into Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Flash flooding was a problem overnight in a number of spots in Texas.

For the Carolinas, we will have an increase in the clouds this afternoon as that low pressure crawls in our direction. Highs today will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s for most.

Tomorrow, look for a mainly overcast sky as the low pressure nears. By tomorrow afternoon, some showers are possible, but the lion's share of the rain in our region will occur tomorrow night into Friday.

Severe weather will be a potential problem today in Texas and Louisiana with the threat shifting tomorrow into southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and Alabama. Our region could wind up with a few thunderstorms by Friday morning, but the severe weather prospects are low.

There is the chance of a secondary low developing as the system pulls through Friday. If that occurs, the rain could stick around for much of Friday as opposed to moving out earlier in the day. This would also up the rain totals around the region.

Interesting to note the Canadian model generates a little snow across portions of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, and some other modeling has tried to do that at times as well. I think it's unlikely at this point (outside of the mountains), and I have not included it in my forecast.

Take a look at the video for some thoughts on next week.


Alabama Tornado Radar images....

>> Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Here are some images from the tornadoes that ripped through Alabama early Monday morning.

The tornadic supercell that impacted Jefferson county's rotational signature really tightened up as it crossed over from Tuscaloosa to western Jefferson county.

From there, the signature, while still there, was not quite as intense once it moved past roughly the Short Creek area in Jefferson County.

After that point, the signature began to tighten again as it was near the Fultondale area, a little north of downtown Birmingham.

The tornadic signature was then very intense as it moved into the Center Point area over close to Chalkville and into Clay and northern sections of Trussville.

A little while later, a separate tornadic storm spawned a tornado that produced this signature near Maplesville.

From there, this storm produced a violent tornadic signature as it neared Thorsby, Lomax,and Clanton. The signature quickly weakened thereafter.


Milder, brighter conditions by this afternoon...

Here is today's edition of the video. In it, I talk about some nice weather the next couple of days, our next system, what the weekend holds, and some long-range ideas.

The persistent wedge that has been in the foothills and the piedmont the last few days will finally erode today and give way to a lot of afternoon sunshine across the region. Along with the sun will some milder temps.....a lot of lower 60s likely for highs.

Our next system is already beginning to move from the Desert Southwest to the Texas Gulf Coast region, and that system will spread rain back into our region by later Thursday. The period of heaviest rain for the Carolinas looks to be Thursday night into Friday morning, and a few thunderstorms could possibly be involved.

At this point, I think the severe weather threat is quite low in the Carolinas, but there could be some severe weather with this one in Texas today and tonight, southeast Texas and Louisiana tomorrow and tomorrow night, and Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana Thursday.

The weekend ahead looks cool and fairly quiet, although another system dropping through stands a decent chance of bringing a quick shot of mountain snow Saturday night or so.

Long range....

I talk about this a good bit in the video. At this point, I see no signs of a truly blockbuster pattern for the Southeast US if you are looking for Winter weather. However, I do think that as we head into February, the pattern will at times favor some west coast ridging and eastern US troughing. But even that is not set in stone. Still working on these ideas....


Damp, chilly day again...

>> Monday, January 23, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video.

We had a pronounced cold air damming scenario across our area yesterday, and looks to continue today. Temps were in the 30s for much of our region yesterday, and it will be a slow climb trying to make it into the 40s today.

A big severe weather outbreak occurred from late yesterday into this morning across Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama. However, due to the cool, stable nature of our airmass here, we will not have any severe weather problems. We will have some showers and drizzle at times today and this evening.

A much brighter, milder day is on tap tomorrow with highs in the low and mid 60s.

Our next system will roll in later Thursday into Friday morning. This one looks like another generous rain-producer.


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