Robert's Post...

Clouds should begin to depart by this afternoon and remain clear through the day Saturday. Though clear today, expect temperatures to drop as we go through the morning and afternoon. A high of around 61 today has already been met or will be met again late this morning. A stiff Northerly wind will direct cool air into the area with sustained winds of around 15 mph. Saturday should see highs close to 60 with increasing clouds as we move into the overnight. Our next system should bring rain late into the afternoon on Sunday. Forecasted soundings currently show enough surface based CAPE to allow for a few thunderstorms to fire along the boundary. Convection outlook from SPC shows no real confidence, so expect little or no severe criteria to be met Sunday evening.


This morning Matthew and I were discussing the lag temperatures of the seasons and I figured it would make a good blog post. Basically when I say lag I mean the difference in time from solar wattage received and the time that radiation affects local temperatures. With the current solar declination angle, we receive the same amount of watts per meter squared as we do on September 15. The radiation received on a given day based on the sun's angle at a given latitude is known as solar insolation. However, we know that September 15 is much warmer than today with average daily temperatures 20 degrees warmer. This is because of differing heat capacities of the soils, oceans, and air.


Oceans have the highest capacity and air has the least. So the ocean takes longer to heat up and stays warmer longer as well. These lags affect many things beside the gradual warming or cooling of seasons. The local sea breeze on the coast is based on the daily temperature changes of the land along- side the steady ocean temperatures. Thermal differences sets up gradients and creates a local circulation, switching directions from daytime into the overnight (i.e land breeze and sea breeze). Hurricane season is also affected. The peak of hurricane season is in mid September when ocean temps are the highest; yet air temperatures are the highest in late July.


Locally in NC we have varying soil types from rocky, clay, and sandy. In the Piedmont we actually have a trough that sets up quite frequently due to the quick transition from clay soil to sandy soils. In the Summer this actually helps increases thunderstorm potential along this boundaries when instability is high. The higher moisture in clay differs greatly from the sandy soils setting up this local gradient.

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

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Half and half weekend....

Today will not be a typical temperature day. Most NC Piedmont high temps will occur by around lunchtime today. Look for maybe mid 60s around Charlotte and midday temps near 60 for Triad zones. Temps will then fall through the 50s this afternoon. A little light rain is also possible.

The sky will quickly clear by this evening, and it will be a pretty cold night. Lows tomorrow morning will be in the lower 30s in many spot...even a few upper 20s look possible.

Half and half weekend coming up....look for sunshine tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

Our next system will roll in Sunday and bring some rain back into the region. Still some uncertainty as to how long the rain will hang around, but I will maintain at least some shower chance into Monday as well.

I expect an extended period of mild and dry weather from mid-week into most of the Easter weekend with highs well up into the 70s. I would not be shocked if a few 80 degree reading cropped up by the end of next week.

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Shower chances knocking on the door....

High clouds are increasing and thickening today as our next storm system approaches. There is at least a limited severe weather threat today off to our west, especially in Mississippi and western Alabama, and while we won't see severe weather here, we will see showers as soon as tonight.

Today will be mild and breezy with highs in the lower 70s for most, even mid 70s in the eastern Carolinas. The bulk of the shower activity will be this evening and tonight, but I can't rule out a late-afternoon shower in the western and southern Piedmont.

Shower chances will end for most of us tomorrow morning, and our highs tomorrow will likely occur tomorrow morning with temps falling through the 50s tomorrow afternoon.

Lows Saturday morning will likely be close to the freezing mark in many locations. Highs will warm toward the upper 50s Saturday afternoon with lots of sun.

Our next system quickly rolls in Sunday. Sunday could begin with some drizzle, and rain will arrive as the day unfolds. Whether or not the rain will linger into Monday remains a question mark at this point.

Sunshine will return, along with milder temps, by the middle of next week.

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Wonderful Wednesday!

Just a fantastic weather day today....sunshine and 70s....doesn't get much better than that!

High clouds will increase and thicken tomorrow out ahead of our next storm system. However, it will still be a mild day with highs in the lower 70s for most.

Shower chances arrive Thursday night and will extend into Friday. Highs Friday will be in the 60s.

True arctic air will have settled into the Great Lakes and New England states by Friday, and some of that colder air will bleed in here this weekend. Saturday should remain dry with highs in the upper 50s. Saturday will get off to a cold start as well with many folks likely well down into the 30s.

Our next system will roll in Sunday. The models are all over the place on this one. The GFS is the quickest of the models, both in the system's arrival and departure. The European is much stronger and slower with the system, and the Canadian is in between. For the time being, I will mention rain rolling in later Sunday and keep shower chances in place through much of Monday. Highs Sunday might struggle to make the lower side of the 50s as well.

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Improving conditions....

The big upper level low that has brought the chilly and cloudy weather is slowly pulling away today. For a little while longer this morning, we could see a little light rain around portions of the region, but that chance is ending quickly.

Clouds will erode around the region today, and highs should warm into the lower 60s in many spots.

Terrific weather is on tap for tomorrow with highs in the low to even some mid 70s with sunshine and high clouds.

Clouds will really increase Thursday ahead of our next system that will bring some showers Friday.

Chillier weather will be with us this weekend as we have a cold air damming set-up on the way. Highs could be in the 50s both days. The next rain-producing system will then roll in later Sunday into Monday.

See the video for details. True arctic air will reside off to our north by this weekend, and that will get pushed down into our area by the cold air damming. I feel odds are we will wind up with a frost or freeze threat somewhere this weekend or early next week.....

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Upper low overhead today.....

A cold core upper level low is overhead today and tonight. One of the primary characteristics of upper air low is cold air aloft. Due to that, I will maintain the risk of a passing shower or two today and tonight. Temps today will likely max out in the mid to upper 50s to around 60 for most, and it will be fairly breezy.

As temps drop into the 30s tonight, don't be surprised to see a few snow flakes mix in with any showers that push through.

Clouds should gradually erode tomorrow with highs in the lower 60s.

Wednesday looks great with low to mid 70s and lots of sun. Clouds increase again Thursday with showers likely Thursday night into Friday.

In terms of basketball, my Bulldogs suffered another heart-breaking loss to end their season. UNC hit a shot with two seconds remaining to win in Starkville Saturday afternoon.

In the NCAA tournament, my bracket took a big shot across the bow Saturday evening when Kansas went down. They were my national championship team. My other 3 final four teams are still alive.

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