Storms
>> Saturday, June 10, 2006
A couple of active storms are trying to fire this evening. A couple of storms could be severe over the next couple of hours. Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for any necessary weather information...
Read more...
Lots on our weather plate this evening...
First of all...wow. It was a hot one Saturday. Here are some highs tabulated so far from around the viewing area...
Gastonia: 98
Albemarle: 95
Charlotte airport: 94
Shelby: 93
Monroe: 93
Concord: 91
There are some showers and storms firing over eastern Kentucky and Tennessee as I am typing this, and they are moving southeastward along a stationary front. With that frontal boundary right over head, a few storms are possible tonight, but I really think most of those storms will die off later this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
As I mentioned earlier, the SPC does have the viewing area outlined in a slight risk for severe weather Sunday. We will see an area of low pressure ride along that stationary front and give us the chance for some mainly afternoon showers and storms. I think there is some risk for severe, but it looks like the storms tomorrow will be of the "pulse" variety; meaning the storms quickly pulse up and down in intensity. So, some hail and gusty winds look possible, but I don't think we are looking at a major severe weather outbreak.
And of course, we are watching Tropical Depression 1. It is pretty disorganized this evening with most of the showers and storms off to the east of the ragged center of circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
However, the NHC still forecasts this thing to become Tropical Stoam Alberto sometime tonight or tomorrow. That is certainly possible, but it does look ragged at the moment. However, it doesn't take much organization for these systems to strengthen from depressions to tropical storms.
As for the track, I still very much like the idea of a northern Florida landfall, then up relativelly close to the Atlantic coast. Timing is still a question, but almost all models are going with this scenario now.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif
There is the chance that the system could ride close enough to the Atlantic coast to give coastal sections of the Carolinas some rainy and breezy conditions sometime between later Monday and Wednesday, depending on timing.
Time to keep plugging with my on-air block.....
Hot, hot, hot....
It is a hot one out there this afternoon....as I am typing this, it is 93 at the Charlotte airport and 92 in Gastonia.
The Storm Prediction Center has the area outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow....I am pouring over the afternoon data now....
TD1 remains essentially un-changed from this morning....
I will have much more details about all of this coming up a bit later....time to put the evening forecast package together....
Check back a little later on....
Tropical Depression One forms...
The disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has organized itself into the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season.
You can find all of the latest information on the system on the NHC page, which is linked to the right of this post.
The computer model data continues to be split into basically two camps. Most models take the system generally north, then northeastward into the Big Bend region of Florida and then up the Eastern Seaboard. A few models move the system more slowly northward through the Gulf and eventually have a landfall anywhere from Texas to Louisiana or Mississippi.
My general thinking remains unchanged in that I feel the Florida then East coast idea is the most likely one.
TD1 has a decent chance of becoming a tropical storm before landfall, but upper level winds should be fairly hostile over the system. Therefore, significant strengthening seems likely.
Off to grab some lunch with my family, then I will be in the weather office this afternoon to put together the evening forecast package....
More information coming later today...
Tropical Update
>> Friday, June 09, 2006
The system down in the western Caribbean Sea continues to gradually organize itself this afternoon. Almost every major computer model "sees" the system now as well. Because the system is so close to the Yucatan Peninsula, I think overall development will be slow. However, I fully expect that before the weekend is out we will be talking about our first tropical system of the season.
I mentioned the computer models. Here is a link that plots some of the computer model data for this system...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif
A brief explanation here. Most of the models plotted on that map are tropical models. They have varying degrees of reliability, and each has some known biases. The blue plot, or the UKMET, is a computer model run out of Great Britain.
You can clearly see that the general idea from most models is for the system to push into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it gets caught by an approaching trough and turned northeastward on most models.
By the way, take a look at what the Canadian model does with the system after an initial Florida landfall...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006060900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=102hr
I need to mention that there is the chance that the system will move slow enough so that the trough "misses" it. In that situation, the system would meander around the Gulf for a while, and probably eventually head toward Texas. However, I think the best idea for the time being is the idea that this thing crosses the Yucatan this weekend, and heads for Florida by mid-week. After that, it could very well ride up along the Atlantic Seaboard. Keep in mind, ALL of this could change, so stay tuned...
What about intensity? Well, most of that is conjecture at this point because the system really hasn't formed yet. However, my initial thoughts are that the system has a decent shot of becoming our first tropical storm of the season.
Stay tuned...
Hot and humid...
It is a warm, hazy, and fairly humid day today. Check out the link below. The numbers in red are the temperatures and the numbers in green are the dewpoints. The wind barbs show the direction the wind is coming from...
http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/sfc/states/nc.sfc.gif
Sure looks like upper 80s for most today, and with relatively warm air aloft, we should not see any afternoon showers or storms develop. In fact, I would not be surprised if some folks saw 90 degrees.
It is also beginning to look more and more like a whole lot of the area could see 90 tomorrow. I officially went 89 degrees for a Saturday high in my forecast, but some of the newer computer model data has come in a bit warmer.
Also, the computer models continue to struggle with figuring out when there will be rain chances next week. The 12z GFS (one of the American computer models you see linked on the right) indicates some lingering shower and storm chances for Monday as well. It is just going to take some time for us to nail down the forecast for next week.
Speaking of the 12z GFS....it bring the potential tropical system to the northern part of the Gulf side of the Florida peninsula Tuesday morning....full tropical post coming later this afternoon...
Tropical development possible...
The disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized today. A recon plane could get sent to the system as soon as tomorrow if necessary.
I will have full post coming up a bit later today showing you some of the computer model data for this system, and I will discuss some of the possibilities with it. Check back later!
Welcome!
>> Thursday, June 08, 2006
Welcome to my blog. I am a meteorologist at News 14 Carolina in Charlotte, North Carolina.
For me, this blog will be a kind of "behind-the-scenes look" at exactly how we go about our jobs here at News 14 Carolina. I will post a lot of more in-depth meteorological data than you might normally see on the main News 14 Carolina web site. I will discuss computer model data, severe weather and winter weather set-ups and possibilities, and various issues and concerns with our upcoming weather.
I also would encourage you to feel free to comment in the "Comments" section of the blog below each post. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask in the "Comments" section as well. I hope this will be a fun and informative blog for everyone, especially those that hold an interest in the weather and the science of meteorology.
Thanks a lot for stopping by. Put the site in your "Favorites" section if you would like, and come back often. I am really excited about hosting this blog, and I hope you all enjoy it.
Talk with you soon, and God bless...
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