The Space Program

I have always been an admirer of and been rather fascinated by the space program. I have always been glued to watching shuttle launches and landings. I went to space camp as a kid, and I just find the whole thing very interesting. I was a child when the Challenger disaster occurred, and it hit me very hard. From what mom tells me, I was basically a wreck for days. But that did not shake my interest in the space program and outer space...I still loved every bit of it.

Of course, Discovery's scheduled launch this afternoon was scrubbed due to the weather. They will attempt to launch again tomorrow afternoon.

Due to NASA's new regulations since the Columbia disaster, all launches are now during daylight. Not only does that significantly cut down on the possible launch times, but it also is harder to get good weather for launches. As you probably know, most Florida afternoon feature scattered storms, so the weather will continue to be a challenge for future launches.

I don't know if most people are aware of how strict and specific the criteria is for NASA to OK a shuttle launch. It is much more complex than you might imagine. Sean McLaughlin over at MSNBC wrote this article on just that...

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13639227/

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Friday Evening Post...

First of all, I had a ton of fun at the t-ball game yesterday evening. Those kids are so much fun to be around, and I had a blast.

After we got home, we are sitting in our living room when I start hearing a strange noise. I walk around, investigate the noise, and finally trace the noise back to its source: the furnace. After spending a bit of time (at 11:30pm, by the way) diagnosing the problem, I find what it is.....the blower is not turning....just humming. Not good, because I now know we have no air conditioning. Thankfully, just the blower motor had burned up, so after a replacement of that, we are now back in business.

On to the weather....it really was a pretty nice day today. Highs were only in the mid 80s in a number of locations, and humidity values were low for this time of year....all in all, a pretty good late June day.

Dry weather looks to hold through the weekend and Monday. Actually, our in-house computer modelling is indicating the chance for a shower or storm tomorrow afternoon over western sections of the viewing area, but I don't think that is very likely.

Heat will build over the next few days....low 90s tomorrow, low to mid 90s Sunday, mid 90s Monday. Also, it will be more muggy by Sunday and Monday.

I am now pretty confident with the forecast for next week. Actually, the forecast ideas are basically unchanged from previous forecast packages. The Fourth will probably feature some widely scattered showers or storms, but I still think most fireworks displays will be OK. As a frontal boundary edges in here from the north, afternoon storms look like a good bet Wednesday with widespread shower and storm chances Thursday.

Tropics...
Interesting to watch the blow-up of storms in the western Gulf. I think the overall prospects for tropical development there are fairly small, but still, it is something that has caught my eye, and we will watch it over the weekend.

Also, an area of showers and storms remains east of the Bahamas this evening. Actually, satellite imagery shows some healthy outflow from that area, but no immediate development is likely. Again, we will watch it over the weekend.

Everyone have a great weekend. I will be in my normal weekend evening slot Saturday and Sunday....

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Thursday Full Post

Well, it continues to be a quiet day here in the weather office. The cumulus field has gone up, but I doubt there will be much in the way of shower or storm development this afternoon or evening. Good news....second t-ball game of the season is upon us this evening, and there would be lots of disappointed kids if we couldn't play tonight.

Looking ahead, it really looks pretty dry through the weekend. The heat will build this weekend, with highs up in the low to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday and mid 90s for most places Monday.

Looking at last night's and this morning's model data, the 0z European model was slower in moving a cold front into our area next week than the 0z and 6z GFS. The GFS hit July 4th much harder with shower and storm chances around here than did the European model. The European model hit Wednesday and Thursday harder than Tuesday. That is the solution I leaned toward with today's forecast package, and now the 12z GFS has come more in line with the European model timing. So, what does it mean for us...

It means that I think we will see some scattered showers and storms for the Fourth, but they should be just that....scattered. So, most fireworks displays should be OK. Look for better chances of more widespread showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday. This could change, but that is my opinion as of now.

Tropics...
There is a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough, causing showers and storms over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. However, any immediate tropical development of that system looks extremely unlikely. However, we will keep watching it through the weekend.

Another area of showers and storms is in the Bay of Campeche this afternoon.

No computer model is picking up on development of either of these areas. The system in the Bay of Campeche is probably too close to land for any significant development, but Texas residents should definitely keep one eye on that system.

So, that about sums it up. Putting the finishing touches on a rather quiet day in the weather office....As Jeff mentioned over in his blog, work is continuing to get ready for News 14's expansion into the Triad area. The weather office is really coming along very nicely. Our engineering folks are top-notch, and they are doing a great job in getting everything ready. Time is really ticking by, and it will not be long before we throw the switch on another News 14 Carolina station. Exciting times!

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Good morning!

All is quiet in the weather office this morning. Lots of sun out there and temps already pushing the low 80s in some spots at 10:30am. It appears most highs will be close to 90 this afternoon, but humidity values will be below typical late June levels.

I have finished putting together my forecast package and the finishing touches have been put on my graphics....will hit the air at 11:01 this morning.

I will put a full post on a little later in the day.....

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Wednesday Midday

I am back in the saddle today. First off, there is the little complex of showers entering South Carolina that, if it holds together, is moving right eastern sections of the viewing area.

Will be interesting to watch that over the news few hours.

Lots of beneficial rains over the last few days...CLT's rain deficit for the year is now under 5 inches....very ncie turn-around there.

Much drier pattern ahead for the next several days. Saturday looks to feature some showers and storms, but aside from that (and isolated storms this afternoon), the next 5-6 days will be much drier.

July 4th...
Frontal boundary will try to ease in here from the north next Tuesday and Wednesday. Here is the 6z GFS surface map for 8am next Wednesday.

If this general idea is correct, Tuesday and Wednesday will feature chances for at least some scattered showers and storms. At this point, I am leaning more toward Wednesday for the more widerpead activity, but we shall see. Here is the HPC's may for 8am Wednesday...

Tropics...
We are still watching a tropical wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles today. It looks like the Canadian model wants to develop some sort of system near the Bahamas this weekend. But at this point, none of the other models I have scanned this morning indicate much happening the rest of this week. But, as always, we will keep an eye out on it.

I was able to get a little work done outside yesterday evening, but boy, let me tell you....there were enough mosquitoes to pick you up and carry you off. At least around our house, the bug spray is an evening necessity. The grass was still too wet to cut yesterday evening, but it is reaching the must-cut stage...I am sure my neighbors agree!

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From the NHC...

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVESTIGATED BY RECONNAISSANCEAIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY MOVED INLAND NEAR MOREHEAD CITY BEFORE ITCOULD DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THESYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICALCYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STILLPRODUCING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINAOUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONGGUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULTPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTOFFICE.

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Good Tuesday Morning...

A few brief notes here...

• First of all, we had a good, soaking rain at our house for most of the night and much of this morning as well. That still is a nice sight to me.
• An area of low pressure is gathering strength off of the Carolina coast this morning, and it could become a tropical depression soon. Look for lots of rainy and windy conditions along the North Carolina coast today into tonight. See the note from the NHC at the bottom of this post.
• Rainfall deficits have been eaten into significantly across the region. CLT airport is now under 5.5" below average for the year.
• My plans to cut grass today have again been nixed by the weather. Oh well....what a shame (detect the sarcasm).

A quick note about tropical airmasses. There was some confusion over what I said a couple of days ago about the tropical airmass that moved in. When we get a feed of air straight out of the tropics (like we have now), that air is generally very clean air. Therefore, when skies clear, you get beautiful blue skies and the air quality is generally very good.

Now, yes, our bad air quality days occur in summer, typically when we have a lot of humidity in place. But that is generally a function of us having a very stagnant upper air pattern in place (which normally really only happens in summer). It is not because we have a muggy air mass...it is just when it normally occurs. I hope that clears up any confusion...

Trying to get a little work done on my deck today....we will see if we can dry things out enough for that later on today. Everybody have a great day....

Here is the NHC statement from this morning...

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURESYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTHCAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICALDEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILLINVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSEDCIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BEREQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTOA TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BYLOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREADONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropics...

Trying to catch up on some chores today that I have fallen behind on (this is my Saturday)....but I will try to put a more detailed post on later today.

Wanted to share this late-morning discussion from the NHC if you hadn't seen it...

A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIREFLORIDA PENINSULA... AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTICWATERS... IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER ANDTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THENORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDAEAST COAST... AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH WITH A GUST TO 42 MPHWAS REPORTED ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND EARLIER TODAY. THERE ARE SOMEINDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM OFF THEFLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... AND MOVE NORTHWARDALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER... WHETHER OR NOTANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OCCURS... THE THREAT FORHEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVERTHE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTOGEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOR ADDITIONALINFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

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CLT rain

Heavy rain fell over western Mecklenburg county this afternoon. In fact, the Charlotte airport has gottn over 2.5" of rain this afternoon. That is enough so that now, for the month, the airport is well over 3 inches above average rainfall, and the deficit for the year is now under 6 inches. Impressive, since at the start of the day, the rainfall deficit was over 8.5"....

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Soggy Conditions Ahead

Quick post here as I am going through the final preparations for the start of my on-air block.

Lots of rain and some storms continue to spread into the viewing area as tropical moisture increases from the southeast. Look for fairly widespread areas of rain and storms this evening, then areas of showers overnight.

I think we are in for periods of rain with some embedded storms Monday, Monday night, and a good chunk of Tuesday as well. Certainly, heavy rain amounts could become a problem, and a flash flood watch is now out for every county in the viewing area through Tuesday morning.

Did you notice how blue the sky was today? When pure tropical airmasses like this get pulled in here straight from the tropics, they bring with them very clean tropical air. So, whenever we happen to have some breaks in the clouds the next couple of days, check out that beautiful sky. Also, breathe deeply and enjoy the break from bad air quality for a few days!

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