Thursday Full Post

Well, it continues to be a quiet day here in the weather office. The cumulus field has gone up, but I doubt there will be much in the way of shower or storm development this afternoon or evening. Good news....second t-ball game of the season is upon us this evening, and there would be lots of disappointed kids if we couldn't play tonight.

Looking ahead, it really looks pretty dry through the weekend. The heat will build this weekend, with highs up in the low to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday and mid 90s for most places Monday.

Looking at last night's and this morning's model data, the 0z European model was slower in moving a cold front into our area next week than the 0z and 6z GFS. The GFS hit July 4th much harder with shower and storm chances around here than did the European model. The European model hit Wednesday and Thursday harder than Tuesday. That is the solution I leaned toward with today's forecast package, and now the 12z GFS has come more in line with the European model timing. So, what does it mean for us...

It means that I think we will see some scattered showers and storms for the Fourth, but they should be just that....scattered. So, most fireworks displays should be OK. Look for better chances of more widespread showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday. This could change, but that is my opinion as of now.

Tropics...
There is a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough, causing showers and storms over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. However, any immediate tropical development of that system looks extremely unlikely. However, we will keep watching it through the weekend.

Another area of showers and storms is in the Bay of Campeche this afternoon.

No computer model is picking up on development of either of these areas. The system in the Bay of Campeche is probably too close to land for any significant development, but Texas residents should definitely keep one eye on that system.

So, that about sums it up. Putting the finishing touches on a rather quiet day in the weather office....As Jeff mentioned over in his blog, work is continuing to get ready for News 14's expansion into the Triad area. The weather office is really coming along very nicely. Our engineering folks are top-notch, and they are doing a great job in getting everything ready. Time is really ticking by, and it will not be long before we throw the switch on another News 14 Carolina station. Exciting times!