Mild weather this weekend....arctic charge next week...

>> Friday, December 30, 2011

Above is today's edition of the video. In it, I talk about a nice weekend, the arctic blast next week, and some longer-range thoughts.

Highs today will warm well into the 50s around the region....even some lower 60s in spots.

A potent upper level disturbance will swing through the region tonight, and I have gone ahead and thrown in the chance of a brief shower or two tonight as that occurs. However, if you do see a shower, it will not amount to much.

The weekend weather will be fantastic. Look for lots of lower 60s for highs, and lots of sunshine too!

Arctic blast...

No real changes here on my thinking with the big shot of arctic air next week. The arctic front will plunge through Sunday night, and Monday will be a cold air advection day with stiff northwest winds and highs in the 40s.

Tuesday will be the coldest day with this shot of cold air, and on Tuesday, many of us will likely struggle to make it above freezing for any extended period of time.

The coldest morning will likely be Wednesday morning when many spots likely drop into the teens for lows.

We will gradually modify the cold air later next week. Still no definitive storm systems to hang our hats on.

Long range....

The NAO will head toward neural and maybe negative as January unfolds, while the AO is still up in the air. At this point, I think the month of January will feature a lot more in the way of cold air at times than what occurred in December.


Quiet weather...arctic blast next week...

>> Thursday, December 29, 2011

Docile weather will be the rule for the next several days. Highs today will be in the 50s with upper 50s and likely a lot of lower 60s tomorrow through the New Year's weekend.

A couple of clippers will drop through over the next couple of days, but outside of maybe a quick shot of some mountain snow tomorrow night, they will pass through in dry fashion.

Arctic blast...

What will easily be the coldest airmass so far this season will arrive next week. The arctic front will move through Sunday night or Monday morning, and that arctic air will plunge in here Monday.

The European and Canadian models are still a little colder than the GFS with this, but the bottom line is it looks cold. Many foothills and piedmont spots look to have highs in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, and I fully anticipate a number of spots heading toward the teens for lows by Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning.

As for wintry precip chances? Nothing much to hang your hat on right now. We remain in an energetic flow pattern, and at some point, we will likely see one of these disturbances amplify in the right fashion to give some wintry precip chances. But nothing definitive yet.


Fairly chilly and breezy today....

>> Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Above is today's edition of the video...

Highs today will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s today.....very close to average for late December. But when you account for the overall mild month as well as a brisk west wind that will be with us at times, it makes for a fairly chilly-feeling day.

We will round out the rest of 2011 in quiet fashion weather-wise with highs warming through the 50s....even some lower 60s possible this weekend.

Next week....

A big pattern amplification will take place next week and will drive what should easily be the coldest air so far this season into the region. In fact, on some modeling, this coming cold shot is pretty brutal in nature for the eastern US as a whole.

Now, I mentioned yesterday about the storm system the European model was brewing early next week. It maintained the system with its 12z run yesterday, and the Canadian jumped on board as well.

However, like I also mentioned, it was really threading a small needle to get to that solution, and it was the extreme and therefore fairly unlikely scenario.

With the 0z runs today, no model produces and significant winter precip for the Carolinas early next week as the storm system either doesn't form at all or forms well to the north.

Will it come back on future model runs? Possibly. But I kind of doubt it. It was unlikely in the first place.

However, the pattern for January still looks at least somewhat more favorable for winter weather lovers than December did, so hang in there.


Another intense system today...

>> Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Above is today's edition of the video....give it a look.

Another intense and moisture-packed storm system is moving through the region today. Rain will continue with us at times, and the wind will become a factor as we get deeper into the day. Winds could gust over 30mph at times, and with a saturated ground, some trees could topple.

There is a threat of severe weather today in the coastal plain, and that severe weather potential might try to pull back closer to the I-85 corridor by early this afternoon as well. However, I think most of the Charlotte and Triad viewing regions will likely see the severe threat stay to the east.

Tomorrow will be a pretty chilly day with sun and Piedmont highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The weather will stay pretty docile then into the New Year's weekend.

Next week...

The European model goes nuts with the storm system pulling into the region early next week and cranks a significant storm system that brings snow to parts of the western and central Carolinas up through the Northeast. The GFS and Canadian are much more benign, just indicating a frontal passage.

At this point, while possible, I think the Euro solution is the extreme and not terribly likely to verify. However, it definitely bears watching.

In the longer term, there continue to be some indications that we are heading toward a more cold pattern in the eastern US as we get deeper into January. But that's not set in stone yet.


Merry Christmas!

>> Sunday, December 25, 2011


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