One year ago today...

My thoughts go back to that awful weather day one year ago. April 27, 2011 was the day of one of the most horrific tornado outbreaks in our nation's history. A total of 358 people lost their lives in that outbreak, with a staggering 235 of them coming from the state of Alabama.

For Mississippi and Alabama, the severe weather came in two primary waves. A powerful line of storms ripped through during the early morning hours causing some widespread damage and massive amounts of power outages. The atmosphere then recharged and the violent afternoon tornado outbreak then commenced.

The outbreak contained 4 EF 5 tornadoes and 11 EF 4s....staggering.

Many of the measurables you can look at match up very closely with the Super Outbreak of 1974.

Turning to our weather, the location of a frontal boundary through the weekend will be the big forecast challenge. As it stands now, it sure is looking like a wedge day for our Saturday in the foothills and much of the piedmont. If that's the case, we will see clouds, showers at times, and highs in the 60s at most.

Here is today's edition of the video....

Read more...

Complicated forecast...

Kind of an unsettled setup today. Several disturbances are aimed in our general direction, and that should result in scattered showers and storms from time to time. Highs today will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region.

It now looks like a cold front will stall just to our south tomorrow, and that should give us some nice Friday weather with a good bit of sun and highs in the 70s.

That front will then slowly lift back north over the weekend. The exact placement of that front will make a ton of difference in the sensible weather through the weekend. The GFS takes the front well to the north and pushes highs into the 80s Saturday. Meanwhile, the NAM has highs temps in the 60s Saturday in the Triad with the front holding to the south much longer.

I am leaning in the direction of the slower frontal movement through the weekend, so that would mean some shower chances Saturday.

Read more...

A bit unsettled....

No video today due to a time shortage.....

Morning rain has greeted many in the area today as a disturbance has ridden down a warm front just to the south.That rain will be gone by this afternoon with a partly sunny sky.

It sure looks like we will see a round of some showers and storms develop into the region tonight. It's always tough to time out individual disturbances in a northwest flow aloft, but some of the higher-resolution modeling is on board with that scenario tonight.

I will maintain at least some chance of some showers and storms tomorrow, and maybe Friday too. However, the weekend overall looks pretty good....especially Saturday.

Read more...

Milder today....

Milder temps today with a couple of storm systems on the way. Here is today's video:

Read more...

Major Eastern US System...

A major low pressure area is causing a very significant April snowstorm from parts of the Virginias up into western NY. In that corridor, there will be some 12"+ snow totals. This is a heavy, wet snow, and when you combine that with the fact that trees have leaves on them and lots of wind, the result will be big-time power outages.

Some snow will fly in parts of the NC mountains as well, but snow totals will be much lighter...but still interesting for the ending stages of April.

For the foothills and Piedmont, it will be a cool, breezy Monday with highs in the 50s in many spots. A few passing showers are possible, and I can't rule out a few snowflakes mixing in in a couple of spots....especially the foothills.

Lows will plunge into the 30s tonight. Dewpoints will be low, so that will hurt frost formation. However, I do think at least some patchy frost is possible.

A warming trend will unfold as the week progresses, and a couple of storm systems are on the way. See the video for more....

Read more...