Saturday morning quick thoughts....

Two items of interest over the next seven days....the system tomorrow/ tomorrow night and the one at the end of the week.

First of all, another strong storm system will sweep into the region as our Sunday unfolds. This will be a moisture-packed system, and a band of moderate to heavy rain will likely move fairly slowly through the region from west to east.

The airmass will try to destabilize just ahead of the system, but the total amount of instability still looked very meager on modeling this morning. However, the dynamics are very impressive with high shear and wind fields. So, I think we will have to watch for low-topped thunderstorms to be embedded within the area of rain. Any storms that do develop could produce wind damage, and if a storm or two were to get strong enough, I can't rule out an isolated tornado. But it would not take much for some damaging winds to occur. The main window for this is later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Cool, dry conditions will move in Monday and be with us through Thursday. Then, our next system still looks on tap for Friday-ish. The models are still all over the place with this one, but as I indicated in the video yesterday, I don't think a track up to the Great Lakes is likely due to the overall setup in place across North America.

So, this one stands some chance of bringing wintry precip to somebody in the Southeast. But this is still in the very-low confidence range. I just feel with the degree of arctic air that will be in place across parts of the US and the overall synoptic setup, this has some potential for the Southeast, especially the Upper Southeast.

Enjoy your weekend!

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One system leaving...another headed in Sunday...

Lots of lingering moisture behind our latest storm system today. That will mean lingering clouds and some light rain and drizzle today, especially this morning. Temps will struggle to climb out of the 30s into the lower 40s.

We should be dry tomorrow, but our next system will cruise in Sunday. This still looks to produce a good rain event, mainly later Sunday into Sunday night.

We will also have to monitor for at least a small chance for a couple of strong to severe storms. Instability will be largely lacking, but there will be a ton of shear, meaning some low-topped thunderstorms can't be ruled out Sunday afternoon and evening.

All systems look like a 'go' for the pattern change I have been talking about for a while now. Next week will be chillier, and as we head into February, a cold pattern looks to lock in for a while.

Late next week, a system will approach. The European model indicates rain, but a lot of other modeling is leaning toward a colder scenario. This might wind up being a case where the Euro is in error.....See the video for some thoughts on this.

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Cold, rainy day....

A cold, soaking rain will settle in today. Temps will only hover in the 30s for most....quite a contrast to the 60s of late!

In the northern foothills and mountains, a period of freezing rain is possible with a glazing possible, especially on elevated surfaces.

Clouds and drizzle will linger later tonight into tomorrow, and highs will struggle to make the lower 40s tomorrow afternoon.

Saturday will be dry, but the next in our parade of systems looks to bring some heavy rain later Sunday and Sunday night.

A pattern change is ahead...see the video for details....

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Kevin's discussion....

Today will bring increasing cloudiness out ahead of a weakening front and we may see a few light showers through the overnight hours. For Thursday a low pressure system will develop and move northeastward bringing us a soaking rain through mid-day into the afternoon hours. A wedge will be in place limiting temperatures from rising out of the 30's. There is no winter weather concern with this system in the triad area but as you move west into the mountains the atmospheric profiles do look favorable for a nice freezing rain event with accumulations of up to an inch of ice isn't out of the realm of possibility. This looks similar to the ice storm the mountains received during Christmas. The next rain event will move into the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. A low pressure system will move across the mid-west and will intensify as it encounters a strong jet streak with higher vorticity being wrapped into the system. Many locations may see rainfall totals in excess of 2". There will be relatively mild temperatures Sunday and Monday due to warm air advection out ahead of the storm system, expect highs in the lower to mid 50's. Looking forward to the end of January and the beginning of February temperatures are trending colder with lows dipping back down into the 20's and highs in the 40's.

Kevin Smith
kbsmith@uncc.edu

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Couple of storm systems on the way...

Take a look at today's video....lots of stuff about our upcoming systems.

We will squeeze in one more mild day today with highs around 60. However, clouds will continue to thicken, and some light rain is possible at times this afternoon and tonight.

The core of the next system will roll through tomorrow. At this point, I expect the heaviest rain to be tomorrow afternoon into early evening around the Piedmont. Temperatures will fall tonight and likely continue to fall through much of the day tomorrow. This looks like a chilly, soaking rain event with temps in the 30s while much of the rain occurs.

I am concerned about icing up in the mountains and possible northern foothills with this, but the Piedmont should stay above freezing. Total rain amounts could exceed an inch in many spots.

Friday looks cloudy and cool with come lingering light rain, especially during the morning.

Our next big system swings through later Sunday and Sunday night, and that one could produce some heavy rainfall.

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Kevin Smith is a recent meteorology graduate of the UNC-Charlotte meteorology program. He is interning with me, and I will be posting some of his discussions here on the blog from time to time. This is a good chance for him to get his feet wet doing some public forecasts. So, below is his discussion from today.....


Today looks like a beautiful day with some high level clouds early turning mostly sunny by the afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 60's. Tomorrow will bring building clouds out ahead of a backdoor cold front with mild temperatures with highs in the upper 50's. Thursday will bring wet and chilly conditions with highs struggling to get out of the 30's, rainfall will begin late morning and last throughout the day with some locations seeing 1.5" of rainfall. We will dry things out Friday and Saturday with highs around 50 and lows in the lower 30's. Our next big system will roll through Sunday afternoon and will last through the morning commute on Monday with many locations receiving 2" of rainfall before all is said and done. There will be relatively mild conditions associated with this system with highs around 50 for Sunday and Monday.

Kevin Smith
kbsmith@uncc.edu

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Another great day....cold rain Thursday...signs of a pattern change...

Above is today's edition of the video. The highlights include a great day today, another southern branch system Thursday and then later Sunday, and signs of a pattern change in the offing. See the video for details....

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Great weather for a couple of days...

Some terrific weather will be with us today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Piedmont today and low to mid 60s tomorrow.

Our next system will approach later Wednesday and swing through primarily Thursday. It is interesting to note that is appears the overall colder scenario for the system the GFS has been advertising will be correct. Good cold air damming will occur with this system. However, the airmass over the source region is not all that brutally cold, and the high pressure will not be tremendously strong. So, I expect this to be a chilly rain for the Piedmont and foothills at this point. It is a close call, especially in the foothills, so we will watch it.

A strong cold front will push through later Sunday and Sunday night and bring more rain and maybe even some rumbles of thunder.

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