>> Saturday, January 23, 2010
Two items of interest over the next seven days....the system tomorrow/ tomorrow night and the one at the end of the week.
First of all, another strong storm system will sweep into the region as our Sunday unfolds. This will be a moisture-packed system, and a band of moderate to heavy rain will likely move fairly slowly through the region from west to east.
The airmass will try to destabilize just ahead of the system, but the total amount of instability still looked very meager on modeling this morning. However, the dynamics are very impressive with high shear and wind fields. So, I think we will have to watch for low-topped thunderstorms to be embedded within the area of rain. Any storms that do develop could produce wind damage, and if a storm or two were to get strong enough, I can't rule out an isolated tornado. But it would not take much for some damaging winds to occur. The main window for this is later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Cool, dry conditions will move in Monday and be with us through Thursday. Then, our next system still looks on tap for Friday-ish. The models are still all over the place with this one, but as I indicated in the video yesterday, I don't think a track up to the Great Lakes is likely due to the overall setup in place across North America.
So, this one stands some chance of bringing wintry precip to somebody in the Southeast. But this is still in the very-low confidence range. I just feel with the degree of arctic air that will be in place across parts of the US and the overall synoptic setup, this has some potential for the Southeast, especially the Upper Southeast.
Enjoy your weekend!