Saturday morning quick thoughts....

>> Saturday, January 23, 2010

Two items of interest over the next seven days....the system tomorrow/ tomorrow night and the one at the end of the week.

First of all, another strong storm system will sweep into the region as our Sunday unfolds. This will be a moisture-packed system, and a band of moderate to heavy rain will likely move fairly slowly through the region from west to east.

The airmass will try to destabilize just ahead of the system, but the total amount of instability still looked very meager on modeling this morning. However, the dynamics are very impressive with high shear and wind fields. So, I think we will have to watch for low-topped thunderstorms to be embedded within the area of rain. Any storms that do develop could produce wind damage, and if a storm or two were to get strong enough, I can't rule out an isolated tornado. But it would not take much for some damaging winds to occur. The main window for this is later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Cool, dry conditions will move in Monday and be with us through Thursday. Then, our next system still looks on tap for Friday-ish. The models are still all over the place with this one, but as I indicated in the video yesterday, I don't think a track up to the Great Lakes is likely due to the overall setup in place across North America.

So, this one stands some chance of bringing wintry precip to somebody in the Southeast. But this is still in the very-low confidence range. I just feel with the degree of arctic air that will be in place across parts of the US and the overall synoptic setup, this has some potential for the Southeast, especially the Upper Southeast.

Enjoy your weekend!

5 comments:

DoubleJ 7:40 PM  

Wow, Matthew, now you are getting those annoying people trying to get you buy something on here. I didn't bother to read all of it. At anyrate, that's good news about next week, I hope it happens, and hope that tomorrow isn't too bad flood wise.

Anonymous 8:43 PM  

man 1st anon GET OUT OF HEAR!!!!! leave this blog alone....if you have something to say about the weather...then this is your place, otherwise don't be annoying.
Thanks :)

DoubleJ 1:37 AM  

Matthew, Jeff was saying something about the 7th being interesting too. I guess we have to get through this Sunday weather mess, and that storm coming up at the end of the week, but I thought I would through that out there too to just kind of keep in the back of your mind.

Matthew East 8:21 AM  

Yep, those type of comments come in a good amount, but normally the comment moderation feature on posts over a week old has filtered them out. Will keep watching for them and deleting as necessary.

Just put up a new post this morning...no real changes here. Keep an eye on things today. And I still think the February pattern is exciting....

Matthew East 8:21 AM  

Yep, those type of comments come in a good amount, but normally the comment moderation feature on posts over a week old has filtered them out. Will keep watching for them and deleting as necessary.

Just put up a new post this morning...no real changes here. Keep an eye on things today. And I still think the February pattern is exciting....

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