Flooding and severe weather potential...

>> Sunday, January 24, 2010

Powerhouse storm system is rolling our way, and already we are seeing some warm air advection showers this morning. The thoughts on this one really remain unchanged from earlier last week. I expect a rather slow-moving band of moderate to heavy rain to roll through. Widespread 1-2" rain amounts are likely, with localized amounts higher than that. With saturated soils, flooding could easily become a problem.

Secondly, I am still concerned about the possibility of severe weather from late this afternoon into tonight. Instability will be lacking, but the dynamics will be fierce. This still looks like a set up for low-topped thunderstorms, and with the degree of shear and the wind fields in place, damaging winds and a few tornadoes look possible.

Still watching the late-week system.....it will hopefully be easier to begin to get a handle on that one once our current system clears the board......


Zack Tomlin 7:14 AM  

i saw that in nws' forecast discussion...they mentioned rain for friday and a changeover to snow friday night and that the 00z run of the ecmwf put out a round of precip saturday and that it would be snow :) have you looked at that particular run today? if you have, do you agree?

Matthew East 7:39 AM  

Zach....yes, I have seen it. The possible solutions for late week run anything from a flat frontal wave to a wrapped up powerful system...anything from milder with rain here to colder and ending as snow.

Let's get today's system cleared through, and then we can begin to hone in on that one...

Zack Tomlin 11:18 AM  

Sounds Good :)

Anonymous 12:06 PM  

Are we talking big, powerful and widespread supercells, or small shorttrack "weak" tornadoes>

Matthew East 2:41 PM  

I would imagine this would be more of the embedded thunderstorm category....not enough instability to support supercells.

Mr. Beaver 3:37 PM  

well the basement in my house is flooding and the heaviest rain hasnt even got here yet. hope for snow!

Mr. Beaver 3:47 PM  

oh yeah just took a look at the modeling. no models say the same thing.

Anonymous 4:14 PM  

I am really hoping North Carolina gets snow Friday and Saturday. The models are still very inconsistent!

Anonymous 4:28 PM  

NWS has put snow in the forecast for iredell county for thurs night,fri, fri night, and sat!!! Can't wait for tomorrow's video!

Matthew East 5:41 PM  

Yep, the end of the week system looks interesting. For snow fans in NC, I would actually be more concerned about the system trending too far south as opposed to too far north.

However, the more immediate concern is the weather this evening and tonight. Temps and dewpoints have risen to the lower 60s in many spots, and I see a tornado warning has been issued for western NC. Severe weather could definitely be a problem.

And flooding looks like it WILL be a problem. I expect flash flooding and river flooding tonight folks....please be careful.

Anonymous 5:47 PM  

do you think they'll extend the watch to the north for the viewing area?

Matthew East 5:55 PM  

It is possible....

  © Blogger templates Shiny by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP