Wednesday evening....

>> Wednesday, January 27, 2010

For those that asked, I will likely put out an accumulation map tomorrow morning.

Well, here we are on Wednesday evening. Throughout the day, the models have done some expected adjusting, but there were not any overly wild swings. Really, the NAM had the most radical change in keeping the southern stream disturbance much stronger as it approached the region. In response, it really cranked the precip amounts. However, it is an outlying solution for the time being.

The overall setup here is relatively clear. There have been no wild swings in the modeling...just some adjustments, as you would expect. However, some of the very small-scale details remain tough to resolve. And, in these situations, the devil is in the details. For instance, for the Charlotte region, the difference in snow and sleet or freezing rain is a couple of degrees several thousand feet aloft.....48+ hours from now. So, it is tricky.

For the Triad, this still looks like a lot of snow with some sleet possibly mixing in at times. And this still looks quite significant in terms of accumulations. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect.

For the Triangle, I am still leaning with a snow/sleet mixture for the most part, although some freezing rain can't be ruled out. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect.

Charlotte remains very complicated. Adding to the complication are the forecast surface temps. The cold air damming is not as pronounced on recent model runs as it was on many prior runs, and therefore, it might take a little longer Friday night to get temps below freezing. This would not really be enough to matter if we are talking about snow...however, if it kicks over to rain, it could mean the difference in freezing rain or rain.

With that said, I still expect a wintry mix for the Charlotte region. From Charlotte and points west, I would lean toward a snow/sleet with some freezing rain scenario...however, freezing rain could become the primary precip type, especially from Charlotte and points east. Don't hold me to this is about as tricky as it gets for the Hwy 74 corridor. I am concerned about ice potential....if freezing rain were to be the primary precip type, it could be ugly. While The Hwy 74 corridor is not under a Winter Storm Watch as of this typing, the GSP NWS has stated that is it possible, if not probable, that the watch could be extended south in the future.

Total liquid precip amounts on most modeling continues to run between 0.8" and 1.5"....and that is the range this will likely wind up.

For our friends in South Carolina and Georgia, it remains quite challenging. The lesser cold air damming issue I mentioned in the Charlotte section above definitely applies here, and that lessens the threat to Georgia especially.

That is how it stands now...I will take a fresh look at things in the morning, and we will go from there.

Thanks so much for checking in....keep the comments coming, and I will answer as I can.


Carrie 7:30 PM  

Thanks for sharing the latest. Looking forward to hearing more in the morning.


DoubleJ 7:33 PM  

Yeah, thanks Matthew, get a good night's rest, you all probably need it. Hopefully we at least have a clearer picture of what's going on.

Mark 7:40 PM  

Here's to a foot of snow in Greensboro. It's for the children. ;-)

Anonymous 7:43 PM  

Sweet! Love reading all the goings-on on your blog, Matthew... like 45 comments today alone or something!

As I am in Orange County just a mile or so north of I-40 (near CH), should I expect a little bit more snow than sleet?


Dwayne 7:56 PM  

What's your thinking for the Hickory, NC area? Thanks!

Anonymous 8:13 PM  

hi matt, you have done really good handling this system and updating everyone. it is very obvious you are a dedicated meteorologist. based on the latest runs, do you think hyde county in eastern nc will see any snow?

Gastonwxman 9:40 PM  

Hey Matt. The recent data that just came in has not only suppressed the storm system south, but now we have a colder solution!! :) Got it from the forum.

Anonymous 10:01 PM  

Matt does this Storm have the set up like the 02 ICE storm ? as far Charlotte goes

Anonymous 10:09 PM  

Matt if it does suppressed the storm system south, and a colder solution.It would mean much more snow for Charlotte right?

Anonymous 11:38 PM  

Could this turn into an ice storm for Charlotte or like the snowstorm of Feb.'04? I guess time will tell. It's also amazing the variety of forecasts from different media outlets. Matthew, we look forward to what you'd come up in the morning tomorrow.

Anonymous 11:41 PM  

What time does the 12Z going to come in?

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