Major winter storm on schedule....

>> Friday, January 29, 2010

Above is this morning's video....give it a watch.

All in all, things loon on track for a major winter storms across much of the region. The details continue to slowly come into focus, and I see nothing to change my thinking that this will be a widespread and disruptive winter storm.

The one potential fly in the ointment is thunderstorm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Sometimes in system like these, those storms can move in a way that cuts off the transport of moisture into the Carolinas. However, at this point, I don't expect those storms to orient themselves in a way that will disrupt the moisture transport too much.

Heavier precip will settle into this evening and tonight, and at least light precip could extend right into Saturday evening. Temps will hold steady or drop all day tomorrow, and wind chill values will be in the teens at best in many spots.

With all of that said, my accumulation map can be seen below and in the video. No huge changes from yesterday, just some minor adjustments.

For the Triad, this still looks like primarily snow. However, the farther south you go, the more likely sleet it to become involved. For the Triad itself and point northward and northwestward, I expect a widespread 7-12" snowfall. Accumulations will decrease as you head south due to the sleet mixing in.

The Triangle is much the same as the Triad, with RDU and points northward remaining primarily snow, although some sleet it possible. And accumulations will likely extend right over through the northern coastal plain.

You can see the accumulation areas on the map below that I have painted for the Charlotte region. The farther north and west you go from the city, the less likely sleet becomes. So, therefore, higher accumulation amounts. East and south of the city, just the opposite....more sleet, less total accumulation.

I remain concerned about significant icing potential from the Sandhills into the Midlands of SC.

Travel will become difficult if not impossible later tonight, and it will remain tough all weekend. It will be very cold behind this system....temps in the 20s at best tomorrow with some single digit lows possible by Monday morning.

You need to make preparations in the event power is lost at your home. Have a few days of food and drink on hand, batteries, flashlights, and a good way to stay warm.

Also, plan on travel being very, very difficult all weekend long. I would recommend not traveling, but if you must, take along supplies with you in the event you get stranded.


Anonymous 7:00 AM  

I like the new map. It looks like more snow. This looks on par with some of the other sites I have checked out. Now it is time to get some supplies. Stay safe everyone.

Anonymous 7:02 AM  

Hmmmm.... thanks for throwing north Chapel Hill a bone there. :)

Charlieann 7:17 AM  

Thanks for the heads up. Last year we were without power, not fun. Yesterday, we picked up a propane heater. The other option was to move in with you and LB and your woodstove :)

Gastonwxman 7:28 AM  

NWS latest snowfall totals (Data ends at 1am Sun.)

Anonymous 7:37 AM  

Thunderstorms along the gulf coast.....a couple people including matt morano say that that could bring down they mean instead of 6-12"~1-3" or instead of 6-12"~5-11"? How much are you thinking for West Iredell...NWS has us at a foot :/

Matthew East 7:49 AM  

Charlieann....haha, the more the merrier! You guys stay warm....

Yep, I certainly have concern about Gulf convection as well. I lean toward it not being a huge factor in this one, but it makes me nervous...

Anonymous 7:54 AM  

Do you plan on another video later this morning? Thanks!

Room 153 8:29 AM  

We are a fifth grade class at Forest Park Elem School in Winston Salem. We are just starting a unit on weather and climate. We will be looking at your blog daily. Thank you for the information.

Could you contact our teacher? We would LOVE for you to visit our school and teach us about weather.

Mrs. Cortez's Leaders

Unknown 8:32 AM

Anonymous 9:46 AM  

I live on the NC/VA border and the NWS says 10-15" which is on track with what you are calling for! This is awesome! Can't wait to see hopefully a foot or more on the ground tomorrow.

Anonymous 9:58 AM  

Hi Matt, Great Video! Do you have any ideas on accumulations for Hyde County in the Coastal Plain. Most of the models start us with heavy snow. I'm not buying what the local meteorologists are saying. Your thoughts would be great!

Anonymous 10:04 AM  

Looks like finally the snow fans in Charlotte may not get disappointed this time. Look forward to see what may end up on the ground by Sunday AM. Thanks Matt for keeping us updated and very informed! Hope you get some rest after this weekend!

Anonymous 10:17 AM  

12z Nam is now a little more vigorous with the snow.

M 10:47 AM  

I hope that this isn't a major bust. Wishcasting for a healthy (6"+) snow in Greensboro, but I can't help having that sinking feeling.

Tarheelhombre 10:57 AM  

HE GFS has much of NC in the teens during the day Saturday.

DoubleJ 11:48 AM  

Matthew, you guys deserve a raise for everything you do on the winter forecasting. I know that can't be easy. Thanks.

Anonymous 12:46 PM  

Matt i see that GSP is calling for 7 to 10 Inches in South Charlotte could it happen?

Anonymous 1:03 PM  

One thing about the flow and thunderstorms... right now looks good. However, the moisture transport will change from the gulf to the Atlantic, which may also play a role in how much low level precip occurs

Tarheelhombre 1:26 PM  

Notice how snow is backbuilding near Oklahoma City.

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