Potential for wintry weathero n the horizon....

>> Tuesday, January 26, 2010

We will enjoy cool and quiet weather today, tomorrow, and Thursday. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 40s with mid 50s for Thursday.

A back-door cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday, and that will push arctic air into the region. At the same time, our next precipitation maker will be arriving from the west.

All in all, I still think this system has good potential to produce significant wintry weather across portions of the Southeast. While there are differences in some of the smaller-scale details, most modeling is in fairly good agreement with this scenario.

Not, we are still 72+ hours away from this event, so a lot could change. But at this point, the potential for winter precip across the region looks very real. What type and how much for each location are questions I can't answer right now.

Now, there is always the chance this trends away from a winter weather hit...again, we are still a few days away. But at this point, things look good for winter weather fans for much of NC down into at least the Upstate of SC and possibly even NE Georgia.


Anonymous 6:50 AM  

hi matt, i am from eastern north carolina. do you think we could get snow with this one or will it be another disappointment to the coastal plain?

Matthew East 7:20 AM  

Tough to say....I can't get overly specific with individual places yet....

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 7:59 AM  

Hi Matt-

I really enjoy your morning videos. Keep up the good work. It looks like the GFS is a little warmer than the NAM, ECMWF, and Euro. Would you lean more toward the GFS or the other models at this stage of the game? The Euro and others have been consistently colder and snowier. I'm sure hoping that bears out.

And, am I correct in observing that the onset of precipitation continues to slow down? It's looking to me to be an onset more like Friday afternoon rather than morning. I think this would be a good thing for us to allow the high to push colder air down this way. However, does the high have a chance of pushing the low too far south so that we don't get as much precip up this way? It's always so tricky in these parts to get the perfect setup for snow!

Gerald 8:16 AM  


Heres hoping Mayberry gets another good snow this weekend... Time to start dancing again.. just hope i don't break anything... lol

Thanks for all that you do!!!

Matthew East 8:26 AM  

Jonathan....I would lean more with the foreign models at the moment. I don't think the GFS is handling the energy completely correctly. And with this one, the slower the better for precip. That arctic air is coming and not going anywhere for a few days....so the more the precip slows down, the better overall.

It is possible the highest qpf could wind up to the south of NC, but I doubt this gets shoved far enough south that NC gets nothing.

Gerald....keep dancing....no broken bones though....

Anonymous 8:46 AM  

Well the coastal plain has been robbed twice this year. Once in December and another time in January. I really hope the European and foreign models are right so all of North Carolina gets a large snow, not just west of I95.

Anonymous 9:25 AM  

Hi Matthew....over at AccuWeather.com, we have a member that follows the SE weather forums and frequently links your blog. I have started watching you everyday and wanted to say how much I really enjoy your videos. We have had lots of positive comments from other members about your blog and you are becoming quite popular over there. Thanks for the great updates. May God bless you with a great day!

Anonymous 9:34 AM  

DOT is gonna have a hard time with this storm because it looks like it will start out as rain, washing any solution, sat, or brine off the roads and then transition, kinda like march last yr.

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 9:52 AM  

Thanks for the quick and informative response! And I like the way you are leaning - more snow!

Anonymous 9:59 AM  

The 12z NAM from today is looking colder. Is that what you are seeing as well. But its looking like the DGEX model just east of the triad gets the heavier snow. And does the European have a ptype chart that you can look at. The other models keep it around the I40/I85 corridor. What do you think with all these questions.

Anonymous 10:26 AM  

Can someone please tell me where you find the European Model?

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 10:40 AM  

Try this link for many different models. Also, Matthew has links on the sidebar of his page to many different models.


Anonymous 11:42 AM  

THE 6Z and 12Z runs of GFS are a lot colder and snowier!!! :)

Anonymous 11:53 AM  

12z GFS is colder!!!

Unknown 12:02 PM  

Why is Jeff saying something completely different? He says he's not "feeling it"

Anonymous 12:53 PM  

Does this storm have the potential to be a freezing rain and sleet event, or will the air be cold enough for mainly snow for the piedmont?

Anonymous 12:58 PM  

Accuweather and weather channel or predicting that this could be a major ice storm for the carolinas, matthew what are your thoughts on this?

Anonymous 12:58 PM  

I have the same exact question ryan! lol

DoubleJ 1:00 PM  

Jeff is playing devil's advocate right now, given our track record this winter season. I personally don't blame him for that, I think it is wise to be cautious, but I also am encouraged with the model Matthew East showed this morning. Oh well, wait and see i guess.

Anonymous 1:02 PM  

Weather Channel has a wintry mix for iredell county friday and saturday with 8* as a low next week!!

Justin Johnson 1:07 PM  

Here's what I posted on Facebook today...."SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY All models are on board for a sizeable winter hit for much of Western NC. As of now I-40 corridor is the best zone for snow...The farther North you go the colder it gets, but also you're farther away from the low pressure system meaning less precipitation, therefore less snow........Farther South, the more precip you get, but with warmer the temps meaning less snow. Here's my thoughts AS OF NOW.....I-40 Northward(mainly north of a line from Wilkesboro to Yadkinville to Winston)---Mainly snow with a bit of sleet mixed in at the onset with snow accumulations of 1-5".....I-40 Southward---Wintry mix with mainly sleet/frz. rain... See More... See More/rain changing to snow Friday night and into Saturday with Ice accumulations of 2/10-1/4"of an inch, Snow accumulations Trace-2".....I-40 Snow with a wintry mix and maybe some plain old rain at the start and then transitioning to snow by Friday afternoon with Snow accumulations of 2-6" and Ice accumulation of 1/10-2/10".........This is a VERY EARLY prediction and MUCH will change over the next 72 Hrs....These predictions are based on modeling as of now and I will keep you up to date as the week unfolds....If you noticed I put a VERY wide Range on snow accumulations simply because the event is so far away and also due to uncertainty about ground temperatures on Thursday and Thursday night. I hope you have a great day and I will post more tomorrow! Thank You!! :D" What do you think?
-aspiring meteorologist, Justin

Justin Johnson 1:09 PM  

Sorry omit the "see more see more" part

Anonymous 1:35 PM  

I live in Eastern North Carolina and I am having a hard time finding the Euro. Does it look like Eastern North Carolina may get some snow?

Anonymous 2:10 PM  

Hi Matt iwas wondering if you think not like other strom when it only rain in south charlotte and the rest of the city.Is there any reason to think that storm for charlotte will be in fact a winter storm either alt of snow or ICE.instead of just seening cold rain.Rain in the winter is not fun

Anonymous 2:19 PM  

I can't believe it! 24 comments already for this blog! I guess everyone is indeed getting excited about this storm! I like to suggest that everyone just calm down and wait and see what happens. I, by no means trying to be pessimistic or anything, but as Matthew said this morning, we are still about 60-70 hours or so away from the event, and a lot can happen. I sure like to see snow like the rest of ya'll, but again, let's calm down and see how things unfold. Matthew, thanks for keeping us informed and we look forward to your reports in the coming days.

Anonymous 2:28 PM  

to replay to 2:19 PM post the reason that there is 24comments

already make it 26.because for the last 2daya most of the models have been on board.Also this storm not like other winter storm where the % of seeing snow in charlotte was very low.When GSP Other tv channel in charlotte weather channel accuweather are all calling for snow in Charlotte and not just cold rain this give everyone a reason to be excited.Don't forget that as nice as it was to see Sunny sky and temp in the 60s.We are in Winter so when you say it might snow in charlotte this get everyone very excited as we all should be in less you hate snow or ice

Anonymous 2:45 PM  

Reply to post at 2:28pm:

As you said, I hope this storm is different from the other ones we’ve had so far. I have been quite disappointed like the rest of ya’ll when we had plenty of cold so far this season but was too dry, then gets too warm in time for storm then it’s liquid instead of frozen. Let’s see how Matthew updates us on this storm in the coming days. Today’s only Tuesday and this is not due until Friday or Friday night. However, it sure would be nice if we see like 2 feet of snow on the ground by Sat or Sun – esp. in Charlotte! (like the February 2004 storm) I am keeping my fingers crossed.

from the author of 2:19pm post

Anonymous 2:46 PM  

Charlotte hasnt seen snow this year...therefore we have the right to post 26 now 27 comments! LOL! :)

Anonymous 3:10 PM  

If all goes as what Matthew (and everyone else) is saying and IF we do indeed end up with 2 feet of snow on the ground, then we might have like 75-100 comments. I hope that doesn't cause this blog site to crash! LOL!!

Anonymous 3:14 PM  

That would be awful!!! lol nahh this blog can handle it! ;)

Burgertime 3:19 PM  

LOL@ 30 comments and 2 feet of snow. Come on...it's Charlotte guys and until the 12z Euro we were right on the line...this could be good but lets not fool ourselves. Also lets give Matt a break..don't ask about your backyards. His videos usually tell most in NC how it will look for their backyard.

Sorry Matt, had to do it.

Anonymous 3:39 PM  

is the 12z Euro in line now showing Charlotte getting 2 feet of snow?

Anonymous 4:16 PM  

where did everybody get two feet from? even if it were to be all snow at a one to ten ratio we would be looking at seven to 12 inches.

Unknown 4:18 PM  

Ok people please quit asking how much snow you are going to get in your backyard, it's rather annoying. And quit wish casting. I have no idea where that one person got 2 feet of snow.

Matthew East 4:40 PM  

Thanks so much to all of you for checking in....I greatly appreciate it!

Feel free to comment away guys....no problem. Just keep it civil and all will be well.

Not much time right now, but I will try to put up a brief post this evening. All in all, most signs still point to the possibility of a significant winter weather event for much of the region.

Anonymous 5:36 PM  

I live north of Greensboro, near the VA line. We got 8" of snow during the December storm, so I'm pulling for yall in Charlotte and wherever else any of you live in NC who have not had any yet this year. I wouldn't care if this was a monster of storm. I went to school at ASU, so I say the deeper the better. (Speaking of monster storms, my buddies in Jackson Hole, Wyoming just got 65" last week alone!) One thing yall can do to get all the snow you want is to make it yourselves. I started doing that this winter and I honestly had snow on the ground until last week. It was there for a good month. It's a good way to get your snow fix when the weather won't do it for you!

Anonymous 10:35 PM  

Response to "Ryan" at 4:18pm -
Ok, I was exaggerating about "2 feet" snow in Charlotte - maybe a foot, to be more realistic. At this point, will be lucky if we see 6" on the ground.

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