Live D.C. Stream....
>> Saturday, February 06, 2010
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Above is a live stream from Washington, D.C. as they crawl out from an historic snow storm....
Discussion and information regarding the weather that impacts the Southeast
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Above is a live stream from Washington, D.C. as they crawl out from an historic snow storm....
Lots of on-air work this morning.....so this will be brief.
Snow falling the Triad along and north of I-85 then down to near Hickory and points north....accumulations occurring.
Freezing rain will be an issue later this morning. The snow will end by later this morning, and at that point, it will either be freezing rain or rain, depending on your temp. Generally, the same areas seeing snow this morning are the areas with freezing rain potential as well.
See the accumulation maps below.
Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will be possible in some spots tonight, then a little light snow is possible tomorrow morning, mainly north of I-40.
Lots of rain will pile up today in the spots not seeing wintry precip, and flooding could be a problem as the day unfolds....
Will leave my morning ideas unchanged. Many Piedmont spots could wind up with a quick accumulation of snow and sleet, especially along and north and west of I-85. Tomorrow morning, the snow and sleet will kick over to primarily freezing rain in the foothills and northwest Piedmont. For the Triad, up to a quarter inch of ice or so is possible. Most of the really significant icing problems should stay northwest of Charlotte, but it is close enough to keep an eye on.
I will be in the Triad weather office dark and early in the morning, and we will see how the chips fall.....
Today will remain quiet with thickening clouds, for portions of the western Carolinas are set for a significant winter storm later tonight and tomorrow.
Tonight, precip will spread in from the southwest. For a while, the precipitation will likely be in the form of snow, and some spots could pick up a couple of inches of snow by daybreak.
Temperatures aloft then significant warm, meaning the precip will fall as liquid. However, in the foothills and the northwest Piedmont, surface temperatures will remain below freezing, meaning the precip will be freezing rain.
Here is my thinking as of this morning....
For the Charlotte region, snow is likely tonight, maybe mixing with sleet. However, liquid precip will take over by tomorrow morning, and temps will likely remain below freezing for Cleveland, Lincoln, Catawba, and Iredell counties and points northwest. In that area, a significant freezing rain event looks possible.
For the Triad, snow will arrive late tonight. Tomorrow morning, the precip will switch to freezing rain. Temperatures will try to slowly warm above freezing as the day unfolds in all but the northwest part of the area, say Surry and maybe Yadkin counties and points west.
For the Triad itself, a couple of inches of snow are possible by daybreak, and then there is the possibility of around 0.25" of ice, mainly on elevated surfaces. The ice potential gets higher as you head into the foothills, and some foothill locations will likely see at least 0.75" of ice. In those areas, this could be a very damaging ice storm.
For the Triangle, some snow or sleet to start early tomorrow morning, then rain tomorrow.
Some light snow is possible later Friday night into Saturday morning, especially north of I-40.
Below is the ice accumulation forecast idea I am going with on air this morning....
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After a foggy, dreary start to our Wednesday, we will get a nice chance to dry out today with lots of sunshine and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
However, the very active storm track continues, and we will see our next system begin to spread precip in as soon as Thursday night.
I am still working on the details of this one, but some wintry weather could certainly be involved. As it stands now, the precip could initially begin as a period of snow or sleet Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures aloft then warm, and the Piedmont would transition to either freezing rain or rain, depending on surface temps. As it stands now, a significant ice event is looking likely in the foothills, and that ice could extend to some Piedmont locations, especially northwest sections. The system could then end as at least some snow by Saturday.
We are dealing with a cold air damming scenario here, and the exact temps and dewpoints inside the wedge will be the determining factor in precip type. This is tough to resolve much in advance, so stay tuned.....
Below is a post today from my intern, Kevin Smith.....
For our Tuesday we will see a chilly rain after a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and a few flakes early with highs in the mid 30' and lows tonight dipping down around freezing. Wednesday will bring sunny skies and milder temperatures with highs around 50. Our next system will roll in from the Gulf Friday morning and will last through Saturday night. There are still questions with this system and as we move the low from today off the coast the models should begin to do a better job with the next system on Friday. The last model runs trended a bit milder with the low moving over the NC/SC border. There will also be warm air advection out ahead of the low and right now I am not confident that the wedge will be strong enough to keep the temperatures at or below freezing during the duration of the event. Looking at the 500mb map at 06z the upper level low is positioned over the North Carolina/Virginia border and brings a nice piece of energy into our region which could bring snow to areas during the day on Saturday especially north of I-40. We will have to monitor this system as features will change as we come closer to the event. That being said, we are in a favorable weather pattern with the southern branch bringing us systems every three to four days.
Kevin Smith
kbsmith@uncc.edu
While a brief period of freezing rain remains possible this morning, temps will slowly warm through the 30s today while rain chances continue. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
The showers will end this evening, and temps will likely drop just below freezing in many spots overnight. So again, some slick spots are likely tomorrow morning.
We remain in a very active weather pattern, and our next system will approach by Thursday night. This is a complex storm system with lots of details still to be resolved, but the overall trend for this one on a lot of the modeling over the past day or so has been a warmer one. Again, nothing set in stone yet. Some wintry precip could occur in some Piedmont spots as the precip begins, and then maybe Saturday with some upper level energy. But it could very well wind up that most of the precip with this one falls as rain for a majority of the area. We shall see....
It looks pretty chilly early next week, and the storm track will remain active.
We get a quiet day today with lots of sunshine and highs in the 40s. So, the melting process will continue today. However, we are in a pattern loaded with storm systems, and the next one will approach tonight.
Depending on when the precip arrives, there could be a brief period of freezing rain in some Piedmont sections very late tonight into early tomorrow morning. If that occurs, this will not be a damaging ice event. However, it could aggravate the driving conditions early tomorrow morning. We then see a chilly rain linger for much of tomorrow.
Later this week, a complex system will approach by Thursday night and could linger into Saturday. It is too early for any real confidence in that one, but it could involve some wintry weather, especially at the beginning and end of the event.
And don't look now, but the pattern for a while here in February continues to be loaded with potential with storm system, cold air, and a pretty suppressed storm track.
I am a husband, father of five, and meteorologist. I am a believer in the Lord Jesus Christ and am thankful for all of the Lord's blessings in my life.
"He is not here, but He has been resurrected!... Luke 24:6
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