Significant winter weather event for the western Carolinas

>> Thursday, February 04, 2010

Today will remain quiet with thickening clouds, for portions of the western Carolinas are set for a significant winter storm later tonight and tomorrow.

Tonight, precip will spread in from the southwest. For a while, the precipitation will likely be in the form of snow, and some spots could pick up a couple of inches of snow by daybreak.

Temperatures aloft then significant warm, meaning the precip will fall as liquid. However, in the foothills and the northwest Piedmont, surface temperatures will remain below freezing, meaning the precip will be freezing rain.

Here is my thinking as of this morning....

For the Charlotte region, snow is likely tonight, maybe mixing with sleet. However, liquid precip will take over by tomorrow morning, and temps will likely remain below freezing for Cleveland, Lincoln, Catawba, and Iredell counties and points northwest. In that area, a significant freezing rain event looks possible.

For the Triad, snow will arrive late tonight. Tomorrow morning, the precip will switch to freezing rain. Temperatures will try to slowly warm above freezing as the day unfolds in all but the northwest part of the area, say Surry and maybe Yadkin counties and points west.

For the Triad itself, a couple of inches of snow are possible by daybreak, and then there is the possibility of around 0.25" of ice, mainly on elevated surfaces. The ice potential gets higher as you head into the foothills, and some foothill locations will likely see at least 0.75" of ice. In those areas, this could be a very damaging ice storm.

For the Triangle, some snow or sleet to start early tomorrow morning, then rain tomorrow.

Some light snow is possible later Friday night into Saturday morning, especially north of I-40.

Below is the ice accumulation forecast idea I am going with on air this morning....

**If you are interested, here is the feed address of my blog:


Anonymous 6:16 AM  

Matthew, I found your blog back in December and have been "tuning in" every morning since then before I get the kids ready for school. Your forecasts are usually right on! I live in the Triad but watch (and look forward to) your blog video every morning. Thanks so much for all your hard work!

Matthew East 6:45 AM  

Thanks so much! I really appreciate it!

Anonymous 6:48 AM  

Appreciate all your hard work and enjoy reading your blogs! Do you see any decent snow for the kings mountain area before the winter is over? Looks like cold rain and ice this time.

Matthew East 7:21 AM  

Thanks, Lee. Sure, Winter is far from over. No guarantees, but we probably have not seen our last chance....

Carrie 8:41 AM  

Thanks Matthew - keeping an eye on this but mostly thinking about my parents in VA. An icy Valentine's Day for a florist is a bad, bad thing.....


Anonymous 8:42 AM  

Curious about Boone/Blowing rock. Will there be significant icing even up there or is it more snow mixed with sleet? I see your graphic includes the mountains but didn't see it mentioned in the blog post. Thanks.


Matthew East 8:59 AM  

Carrie....yeah, that would not be good! Lots of Virginia will really be clocked with this one.

Brad, looks like the classic mixed bag in the High Country. Snow to start, but then sleet and freezing rain become increasingly possible.

Felipe Snark 9:16 AM  

I love your blog; I check it every morning before work!

Radar returns show some precip already reaching central GA. Do you think it could reach NC before late tonight?

Anonymous 9:19 AM  

Thanks! I'll try to enjoy the snow I get then!

Yeah, later this month is starting to look like early January....too cold for snow; on the GFS anyway. Are other models conflicting with that Matt?


Tyler Legg 12:32 PM  

To cold for snow???

Anonymous 12:43 PM  

THFF, cold air suppresses all the storms and moisture too far south. Dry and cold in the Carolinas. That's the latest GFS models anyway. FWIW.


Matthew East 1:12 PM  

Thanks! Yeah, precip a bit ahead of schedule. Could reach the southern Piedmont by evening sometime....

Anonymous 1:33 PM  

Your blog is great, always accurate & very informative. Thank you very much for all your hard work! With the precip coming in ahead of schedule, does this mean it will be more of a rain event for Rockingham County (we live by Belews Lake)?

Anonymous 4:14 PM  

Sorry to make u be a mailman, but my computer took a virus hit from jeffs page could you tell him please thanks! :)

Anonymous 5:04 PM  

low risk tracking cookies. I get a flag on there also. I just delete them.

Matthew East 7:09 PM  

Thanks Niki! You are in an interesting will likely see some snow and then possibly ice, but your area is tough.

THFF and Brad, yes, overly suppressed would be the concerned at times on the GFS. Not cold yet, but it is a possibility.

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