Christmas Eve Eve

Wow....70 degrees in CLT today.....lower 70s across much of the area. That does not feel like December 23rd.

We will still be pretty warm for Christmas Eve with highs in hte low to mid 60s. However, a low will move across the northern Gulf tomorrow and then across the western Carolinas Christmas Day. That low will spread a lot of rain in here for Christmas with highs struggling to reach the lower 50s.

Behind that low, temps in the 850mb to 500mb level drop like a rock by Monday night. As those very cold temps aloft move overhead, we could squeeze out a few snow flurries in the Monday night-Tuesday morning time period. Should not be a big deal, but something neat to see if it happens. Now, a different story up in the mountains....some significant snows will likely occur between Monday night and Tuesday night. In fact, I think the favorable NW facing slopes could see at least a half a foot, and possibly more. Good news for the ski industry!

Temps will be close to average for much of the week next week from Christmas on. In fact, we will be below average on some occasions, such as lows Wednesday and Thursday morning, when 20s are likely.

I am still looking at the storm system for the end of next week. I still like the idea of this system really wrapping up nicely, but I don't have a good idea about the track yet. Probably rain for us, but stay tuned...

I will make another post sometime tomorrow. But, if you don't check in again before then, I want to be sure and wish you a merry Christmas! May you be filled with the warmth and peace of God's love...

Read more...

Not much time this morning, but I wanted to put up a quick post...

• Old-fashioned rainy day today. Rain will taper off tonight. 1-2 inches seems likely, with a few spots seeing locally more. Due to dry ground conditions, most flooding issues should be confined to the mountains and foothills.
• Dry and warm Saturday and Christmas Eve. Highs will be in the 60s.
  
• Rain returns Christmas Day. I still am going with the idea of some sort of wedge being in place Christmas, and thus, I continue with a high temp in the 40s for Christmas with good rain chances.
  
• As the upper level trough moves overhead Tuesday, we could squeeze out a few flurries. Not a big deal, but it would be neat to see. Up in the mountains, significant upslope snows could occur Monday night and Tuesday.
• Wednesday and Thursday look quiet.
  
• The next storm system should move through Friday or next weekend. Some models are hitting on the idea of a big-time amplification with that system. I am inclined to agree with them, but any details with that system are impossible right now.

Stay dry today. Some of my family is heading into town, and they will be with us through the Christmas holiday. So, posts might be a tad more infrequent. I will be back in the evening shift for Charlotte Saturday and Sunday. And, Sunday evening, I will be tracking Santa! Be sure and tune in!

Read more...

Thursday Morning Thoughts...

Well, December 21st is upon us....the official start to Winter today. Also, today features the least amount of daylight time of the year...the amount of daylight will progressively increase from here on out.

Also, another thing to note about December 21st.....it is only 4 days until Christmas! Wow....

I took a walk with the kids yesterday evening. As I have mentioned before, we have a 3 1/2 year old, a nearly 2 year old, and a 7 week old. Well, Grace (the almost 2 year old) and Jayden (3 1/2 year old) absolutely love Santa...even seeing pictures of him. One of our neighbors has a Santa decoration on their mailbox, and on our walk, Grace and Jayden spotted the Santa. Well, Grace just had to give Santa a hug. Then she had to give Santa a kiss. Then she had to touch his feet. Then we had to look at his eyes, nose, and mouth. I thought it was very sweet. But, on the other hand, if the neighbors happened to look out the window right then, they would have seen me lifting a toddler up and down so she could hug the decoration.....good stuff.

As for the weather, look for intervals of mainly light rain today and tonight. However, the rain will likely become heavy at times tomorrow afternoon and night. I am expecting about 1-3 inches of rain before all is said and done Saturday morning. I still don't expect widespread flash flooding problems due to the recent dry weather. However, swollen stream and river beds are a definite possibility, so if you live in a flood-prone area, pay attention to that possibility.

Interesting developments with our Christmas storm system. The GFS continues with its general idea of a wedge holding in our area and the low going up near the Carolina coast. However, the 0z European model has come in with a much deeper, farther west solution. If the GFS is correct, we are probably looking at 40s with rain here in the Piedmont for Christmas. If the Euro is correct, we could push the lower 60s with rain for Christmas. I am still going with the GFS idea of a chilly rain arriving for Christmas Day. However, I will admit I am a bit nervous seeing the European model data. A lot of times, the trend with these types of lows is a westward one with time. So, that Euro solution could wind up being correct, and we could wind up much milder Christmas than what I have going in the forecast right now. We shall see...

I should also mention the GFS indicates the possibility of some flurries or snow showers behind the main low for Tuesday. However, let's figure out where the system will track before we look any deeper at that!

Everyone, have a great day today. Thanks for stopping by....

Read more...

Whew.....

I don't really feel like I have sat down since Sunday night. As I figured, Monday and Tuesday featured lots of activities for us, and we were on the go most of those days.

Today, I am holding down the midday shift for both Charlotte and the Triad markets. Due to a Presidential news conference News 14 carried, my normal schedule of getting weathercasts ready to go for both markets was delayed fairly significantly.....still playing catch-up as we speak.....busy day for sure.

A couple of forecast ideas though....

• Friday, Friday night, and at least Saturday morning will be quite wet. I don't expect flooding, but certainly, a good, soaking rain.
  
• Christmas Eve looks dry and relatively mild...meaning upper 50s to lower 60s for highs.
  
• Gulf low pressure lifts up near the Carolina coast Christmas Day. This spreads a chilly rain in here for much of Christmas Day and Monday night. This system could produce some snow in the mountains. Outside of the mountains, while I think some sort of wedge will likely be in place, I think our airmass will likely be a tad too warm for anything wintry. But, I will keep a close eye on it, just in case.

Well, that's about all for now. My busy day continues, and I am out of time to post at the moment.

Thanks for stopping by, and come back!

Read more...

Frustrating Times...

As a meteorologist, with the type of personality I have, it is very frustrating when I cannot get a handle on something having to do with the weather. I left work last night with a very unsatisfied feeling. For those of you that love the weather and have a passion for forecasting it, you likely understand what I am talking about. I understand that only God knows what will happen in the future, but normally, I at least have a good idea about the general forecast ideas for the next 2-3 weeks. Last night, I left work feeling fairly clueless outside of a change back to more seasonal temps by Wednesday.

But today, I feel I am getting a little better handle on where we are headed for the rest of the month. Here are some of the ideas I have as of now...

1. The change back to December-like temps will occur, on schedule, by Wednesday.
   
2. I still like the general forecast idea of seasonal temps (generally 50s for highs and 30s for lows) at least through Christmas, beginning Wednesday.
3. The pattern is looking very unsettled beginning later Thursday and lasting until at least a couple of days after Christmas....meaning at least a couple of storm systems should roll through our area.
4. The first system should move through Friday. We could see some wedging occur as this system moves in, but temps should be too warm for anything wintry.
   
5. Another storm system will likely move through between December 25th and December 27th. Most models are in agreement with some sort of system rolling through around that time. However, trying to forecast a track for that second storm system is fruitless at this juncture. I bet we will see the models flip-flop several times on the eventual track of that storm system over the next 5-7 days.
   
6. I still think the month finishes out without any further significantly above-average temps.
   

So, there ya have it. Today is my 'Friday'....my weekend is about to begin. So, I will try to post from time to time Monday and/or Tuesday. However, with these being my last off days before Christmas, there is a lot to be done in the East household.

Everyone have a great week, and I will post more when time allows....

Read more...