Saturday...

Next system is gearing up to our west today. Out ahead of it, a few mainly light showers are possible from time to time today and this evening. Most highs will be in the 60s.

The core of the system will enter the Carolinas late tonight, then traverse the area Sunday. For Charlotte and the Triad, the period of heaviest rain will likely be tomorrow morning into maybe early afternoon....the timing is later for points east.

Regarding severe potential, I can't rule out a few strong to severe storms....damaging winds will be the primary threat. Here is the RPM's output for 11am tomorrow...

In terms of total rain amounts, they still look generous. I have no compelling reason to change my wording that I have been using all week....a general 1-2" type of rain. But, of course, there will be some localized variations. Many mountain and foothills locations could wind up exceeding the 2" mark.

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Quiet today, but big system this weekend...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I take a good look at our weekend system, and a brief look at our next system later next week.

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Thursday afternoon...

Be sure and scroll down to the post below this one for today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....some good stuff in there.

Temp forecasts are on track as of the 1pm observations. At that time, it still looked like the Charlotte region would largely top out in the mid to upper 50s with lower 50s for the Triad. Triangle in the low to mid 50s.

Clouds will stream in tomorrow in advance of our big weekend storm system. Even at this late hour, there remains some uncertainty with a few of the details regarding the system's evolution....however, the timing remains pretty constant.

As I have been highlighting all week, I still think this is a generous rain producer...and I will continue the wording of a general 1-2" type of rain event. But depending on the system's specifics, some spots around the region could do better than that.

Rain could begin later Saturday, but I believe the period of heaviest rain will still be Saturday night into Sunday.

Regarding severe weather, I don't think this has the look of a big outbreak....instability will be lacking. However, lots of dynamics will be in play, and we will need to keep an eye on it.

After that system, the next one is due in here toward the end of next work week.

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Much cooler today...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I discuss the flip back to cooler weather today, the big system this weekend, and a look at next week. Plus, a couple of graphics about a big-time snowstorm around here in March 1980.

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Milder today....cooler again tomorrow...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I discuss the temperature swings the rest of this week, the big storm system coming over the weekend, and a look at next week.

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In like a lamb....

Be sure and scroll down to the post below this one for today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

Many locations in the region got between 0.5" and a little over an inch...so all in all, a pretty decent little rain event. Not drought-busting by any means, but at least a little help in the short term. A number of severe weather reports came in....here is the map below.

After February exited in rough and tumble fashion, March is beginning quietly with sunshine and cooler temps. Highs today will only be in the 50s for the Piedmont.

It is basically a temperature forecast for the next few days with highs tomorrow in the 60s, then back to the 50s Thursday. Both days will feature lots of sun.

Friday could turn out to be quite chilly....maybe highs only in the 40s with lots of clouds.

The next big storm system rolls in over the weekend....mainly Sunday. This one looks like it could be a significant rain producer with the main dynamics remaining fairly far south. Some storms could also be involved. We will see how this unfolds, but this could be a widespread, soaking type of rain.

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Carolina Weather Video - March 1, 2011

Here is today's edition of the video. In it, I take a look back at yesterday's storm system and a detailed look at what's ahead, including a chilly finish to the week, a weekend storm system, and the potential for a cold shot later in the month.

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Tornado Watch

Here is the complete watch information.

A large tornado watch is out for much of AL, north GA, eastern TN, parts of the Upstate of SC and western NC. The watch includes the western portions of the Charlotte viewing area and western and northern parts of the Triad viewing area. The watch is out until 8pm.

Showers and storms in parts of Tennessee and Alabama will continue to strengthen and develop eastward through the afternoon and into this evening. Tornadoes will be possible with any storm for the next several hours. In time, this should evolve into a big line of storms, and damaging winds will become the primary threat as this shift into the Carolinas later on. However, a few tornadoes will still be possible within the line of storms.

Have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings this afternoon and evening. And of course, we will have you completely up to date on News 14 Carolina.

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Severe thoughts...

Be sure and scroll down to the post below this one for today's Carolina Weather Video. I cover lots of ground on there....and spend a majority of the time on today's storm system.

Near record warmth will again be with us across the region today. Look for Piedmont highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and winds gusting out of the southwest to 35+mph.

This is setting the state for the arrival of our next storm system. The new Day 2 outlook is out, and there weren't any really huge changes. The Carolinas remain largely in the 'slight risk' area, with a 'moderate risk' in the Tennessee Valley in the western tip of NC. Tornado watches stretch from north and central MS to Ohio and southwest PA as of 8:30am.

For the Piedmont of the Carolinas, I expect showers and storms to develop in later this afternoon and exit to the east later this evening. I expect the line of storms to make it into the northern foothills by mid-afternoon and near the Triad by mid-late afternoon.

For the Charlotte area, the arrival will likely be from late afternoon into early evening.

Wind damage will be the primary threat, but a few isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. I only expect dewpoints to make it into the 50s today, so not a ton of instability. However, I think there will be enough for at least some severe weather.

Here is the Day 2 severe weather outlook....

And here are the wind probabilities....

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Severe weather potential...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I spend a lot of time dealing with today and tonight's severe weather potential. I also look at the rest of the week and the upcoming weekend. Give it a look....

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Sunday afternoon...

An 'open windows warning' is in effect this afternoon. Most temps well up into the 70s....even a few lower 80s this afternoon in the Piedmont. Enjoy!

The new Day 2 convective outlook has out, and the SPC has beefed up the severe probabilities. Accordingly, a 'moderate risk' is out for a big chunk of the Southeast.

Again, review those severe weather safety plans. I will have the full slate of info on my products here and on News 14 Carolina in the morning.

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Sunday...another severe weather producer on the way...

Quick Sunday morning thoughts....

Today will be very quiet and warm around the Carolinas. Highs today will warm into the 70s in many spots....same deal tomorrow.

Off to our west, our next storm system is gearing up. Another moderate risk of severe weather covers much of the Ozarks and Mississippi Valley for later today and tonight.

That system will progress eastward, and this time around, there will be more instability in the Carolinas. The entire region is included in a Day 2 slight risk, and the probabilities put out by the SPC are actually fairly high.

I can't rule out any mode of severe weather with this one, and where the largest threat area sets up will depend on exactly how the best instability and dynamics interact tomorrow.

Since this is the first widespread severe weather potential of the season, now is a good time to review you way of hearing severe weather watches and warnings and review severe weather safety plans at your homes and businesses.

I will have a full post and video up bright and early in the morning.

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