Pretty quiet today... more unsettled this weekend...

Like yesterday, some afternoon storms could fire in the foothills. But most of the piedmont will be dry today with highs in the 80s and tolerable levels of humidity.

An upper level disturbance will drive an area of low pressure and a cold front our way this weekend and will bring back scattered shower and storm chances at times.

Tropics...

Dorian is struggling this morning, battling hostile upper level winds and dry air. See the video for more... I spend a good amount of time on Dorian.

Read more...

A little cooler today....

A cold front has dropped to our south, and highs today will be in the low and mid 80s for much of the foothills and piedmont. There will be a chance for a few showers and storms, but it now appears the rain today will not be very widespread.

Tonight will be pleasant with lows well down into the 60s, and then tomorrow looks fantastic with 80s for highs under a partly cloudy sky.

A few storms will work back into the region later Saturday, and Sunday looks unsettled right now with good shower and storm chances.

Dorian...

Tropical Storm Dorian is a little stronger this morning. It is a compact system, and that is helping it battle some fairly dry air out ahead of it over the Atlantic.

No real changes to my thinking here. Dorian should continue on a track a little north of due west for the next 5-7 days, probably tracking a little north of the northeast Caribbean islands.

I think odds are this winds up fairly close to the Turks and Caicos Islands and maybe the Bahamas by the middle of next week, and from there, we could see this make a run at the US.

Again though... this is a long, long way from the US... plenty of time to watch and for changes.

Read more...

Shower and storm chances return... TD 4 has formed....

A cold front is dropping into the region today, and that front will kick off scattered showers and storms later today and into tonight. Then, an area of low pressure will form along the front and keep the chance of some showers and storms going tomorrow.

Winds will switch around out of the northeast tomorrow, and that will lead to some cooler temps.

Friday looks great with mainly dry conditions and highs in the 80s, and then the chances of showers and storms will ramp back up with time over the weekend.

Tropics...

Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic, southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. There is a large subtropical ridge sprawled across the Atlantic, and that feature will likely keep the system on a track slightly north of due west through the weekend.

Most modeling would seem to indicate that this system will not eventually re-curve and might wind up threatening land down the road, but that's pretty deep into the crystal ball.

The system will have to battle a lot of dry air out over the Atlantic, so it will have an uphill battle regarding overly significant strengthening in the short-term.

Read more...

Slightly less muggy today in some areas...

For the I-85 corridor and points north and west, a slightly drier airmass will temporarily arrive today. This will probably be enough to notice a decrease in the humidity levels this afternoon, and it will also reduce our shower and storm chances. The better chances for a PM shower or storm today will be the further east you go in the region.

A cold front approaches tomorrow and will increase the storm chances again. Then, it appears a wave of low pressure will develop along that front and provide some clouds, showers, and storms for Thursday.

That system looks to get out of the way in time for a pretty good looking forecast Friday and Saturday.

See the video for more on all of this.... plus a look at a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.

Read more...