Debby thoughts....

Invest 96 L will likely get classified as Tropical Storm Debby this afternoon. Where the system will eventually head is ..... well... uncertain is about as good as it gets.

Check out the latest spaghetti plots.....yikes. See some explanation below....

In terms of a few specific models, the new Euro model remains consistent with a track eventually into Texas. The GFS continues to shoot Debby across Florida. The Canadian is heading right up the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The differences aloft in the Euro and GFS models are fairly subtle, but there is slightly more ridging on top of the system from the Plains states on the Euro than the GFS, and that keeps the system suppressed far enough south that the trough swinging into the eastern US misses picking up Debby.

Which of these model camps is correct should be more evident by this time tomorrow.

All interests along the Gulf coast, from Texas to Florida, need to monitor the progress of Debby.

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Scattered storms today.... watching the Gulf...

Here is today's video.... give it a look:


A cold front is nearing the region today and will kick off a good number of showers and storms as we head through this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds being the primary threat. Any storms could also produce vivid lightning and locally heavy rain.

A few storms are possible this weekend, especially through southern NC.

A wonderful breath of fresh air is on the way by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Cooler temps and low humidity on the way for that time period.

Tropics...

It sure look like we will be talking about Debbie in coming days. If necessary, a recon flight will head into the developing low pressure this afternoon. The model guidance continues to show a lot of spread, as you would expect with a yet-to-be-developed system. For instance, the European model, which yesterday took Debbie across N FL and then off the Carolina coast, now takes the system to Texas.

It is simply too soon to know where this system will eventually wind up, but all interests along the Gulf coast need to monitor the system's progress.

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Hot....

Here's today's video..... lots happening....take a look:

Lots of highs today will head into the mid 90s across the region. It will also be quite muggy....altogether, a pretty uncomfortable day.

Isolated showers and storms will fire this afternoon and evening, but much better shower and storm chances arrive tomorrow afternoon with the approach of a cold front. The front then washes out over the weekend, so a few storms will remain possible, but the chances will be decreased from Friday's levels.

Interesting goings-on in the tropics. Chris is a non-issue out in the north Atlantic. However, of greater interest is what's happening in the western Caribbean Sea. The European and Canadian model both develop this into a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The Canadian then eventually takes the system west toward Texas while the Euro model strengthens the system, moves it into north Florida then up near the Carolina coast next week. Stay tuned....

Canadian valid Tuesday evening:

European valid Friday morning:

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Getting hotter and muggier....

Highs today will approach 90 in many areas in the region, and then I expect highs to exceed 90 in many spots tomorrow through Saturday.

Not only is it getting hotter, it is getting muggier as well, and this will be a pretty good little dose of summer heat and humidity.

There are some signs of the heat trying to back down a bit by early next week. See the video below for details....

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Heat and humidity build this week...

After simply wonderful weather for the Father's Day weekend, heat and humidity will build this week. By Wednesday, I anticipate a lot of lower 90s for highs, and that will likely extend right on into the upcoming weekend.

Some afternoon storms will also fire in some parts of the region today.... see the video for all of the details....

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