Colder air settles back in...

>> Friday, December 12, 2008



Above it today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

Quiet weather has returned to the Carolinas, and it will last through the weekend. It is nice to see the sun out there today. Cooler air is also pushing in, and lows tonight will drop down into the 20s. Highs tomorrow will only be in the 40s for much of the Piedmont.

Milder weather will be with us for a chunk of next work week with highs returning to the 60s. There will also be some shower chances around mid-week.

As it stands now, I do not think we are entering a prolonged period of above average temps....I expect more cold air later in the month. See the video above for more details about next week.

Active week at work, so hoping to squeeze in at least a little downtime this weekend. Have a great weekned!

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Tornado Watch - Until 7pm

>> Thursday, December 11, 2008

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Southern Mississippi



Above is an image from Jones County Community College in southern Mississippi. Beautiful. Photo courtesy of WDAM-TV.

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Not your everyday storm system...



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Very impressive storm system....

Simply a very impressive storm system impacting the eastern US. Winter Storm Warnings are up in the Deep South, and snow accumulations of 3-5" are likely today ins parts of Mississippi and Alabama. Houston saw accumulating snow last night, and Baton Rough has seen thundersnow. Simply incredible....

Rain will be with us through today and into tonight. Storm total amounts could exceed 3" in some spots, so we will continue to monitor for flash flooding problems.

We are also watching severe weather possibilities. The main threat of severe weather looks to be south and east of I-85, and damaging winds and an isolated tornado are the primary threats.

Tonight, as the system begins to pull away, some wet snow could mis in with the rain in the northwest Piedmont. This does not look like a big deal, but I can't rule out a slushy, light accumulation up toward Surry and Yadkin County.

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Afternoon severe threat....

>> Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The folks around the Charlotte metro need to pay attention to the weather this afternoon. A storm showing lots of rotation is moving through the upstate of South Carolina and, if it holds together, will move into the southern Piedmont of NC later today.



I am also getting more concerned about severe weather potential tomorrow....lots of shear and dynamics in play.

Make sure your weather radios have good batteries in them in the event watches/warnings are required today, tonight, or tomorrow.

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Very Impressive Storm System....



Above is today's edition of the video. Lots of good stuff in there....give it a watch.

Amazing to watch this storm system this morning. Snow has flown deep south into Texas with flakes near Austin and San Antonio. Meanwhile, severe weather continues in Alabama and Georgia as I am typing this.

This forecast is an extraordinarily complex one, and it is one about which we will have to continue to adjust the details. Here is how things look as of now...

- We will see showers today, and as the atmosphere gets more unstable, some storms are likely in the Piedmont this afternoon into tonight. Some of the storms could produce damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Highs today should warm into the lower 70s in many Piedmont locations.

- A cold front will try to nose into the northwest Piedmont later tonight and likely stall out somewhere in the western part of the state tomorrow morning. Rain, and some storms, will continue tonight, especially in the western half of the state. Exactly how far southeast that cold front makes it is crucial in terms of tomorrow's severe weather threat.

- At this point, I think that boundary will stall out somewhere around the northwest Piedmont and then hold steady there into midday tomorrow. As an area of low pressure lifts into the Carolinas from the Gulf, it will ride along that boundary. Anywhere along and to the south of it will have a severe weather threat tomorrow, while places to the north of it will not see severe weather, but plenty of rain. Total rainfall amounts of greater than two inches seem likely across much of the Piedmont.

- Under a deep cold core upper level low, snow will fly in the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South tomorrow. There will likely be a strip across Mississippi and Alabama that sees 4 or 5 inches of snow. That upper air low will fill in a bit and move into the Carolinas tomorrow night. I still think some wet snowflakes are possible with the feature, but at this point, it doesn't look like too big a deal. But sometimes those systems have surprises up their sleeves, so it bears watching.

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Big-ticket storm system...

>> Tuesday, December 09, 2008



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I encourage you to take a look at it....lots on the menu today, and sometimes it is easier to show you things that it is to tell you through typing.

Quite a dynamic and complex storm system taking shape. Today, severe weather is a concern in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, snow is flying in the Midwest and portions of New England.

Around here, this storm system will impact us in several phases. Today and tonight, we will see some showers at times with highs in the low to mid 50s. Tonight, temperatures will hold steady or even rise a bit as the southerly flow gets even more pronounced.

The airmass will likely become unstable enough tomorrow for the possibility of a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. We will watch for any severe weather potential. The best shot of seeing severe weather in the Carolinas looks to be along and to the south and east of I-85.

Then, another area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf and lift up in our direction. As it stands now, I expect a soaking rain Wednesday night and Thursday.

Later in the day Thursday, the temps will begin to drop, and it is still possible that portions of the Carolinas will see this system end as a little bit of snow. The best chance of that will be in the mountains, foothills, and northwest Piedmont.

Like I mentioned, this is a very complex storm system, and the details will continue to change as we get more data available.

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Big storm system this week....

>> Monday, December 08, 2008



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I show you some of the differences in the modeling regarding this week's system.

Dry today with some high clouds and highs in the 40s.

Huge game tonight at Bank of America Stadium....Monday Night Football....9-3 Bucs at the 9-3 Panthers. This is a big game in our house....my wife is a big Bucs fan, and I am a Panthers fan. So, I will be dragging tomorrow morning....have to stay up to watch the game tonight. As for the weather at the game, clouds will roll in with temps dropping into the upper 30s, but no precip.

The chance of light rain begins tomorrow, and then the rain will likely be heavy at times later Wednesday into Thursday. At least 2-3" of rain look possible at this point. Also, a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out, but this does not have the look of a big severe weather outbreak at this point.

Lots of folks wondering about the snow chance later Thursday. Again, be sure and see the video above. The 0z GFS looked very nice if you like snow in the western Carolinas. The 0z European model was similar, but a bit slower and a bit warmer. The 6z GFS has come in MUCH slower than even the European, and keeps things all rain in the Piedmont. Frankly, I do not think the 6z GFS handled things correctly, but we will see in later runs.

So, things remain unchanged in terms of my opinion. I still think it is possible we could see some snow on the backside of this system later Thursday or Thursday night, especially in the northwest Piedmont. But, it remains a big question mark at this juncture, and it remains just that....a possibility. The models will continue to struggle to resolve the details of this system due to its very complex nature, so we will not be able to tell you with certainty what should happen for a couple of more days. Stay tuned....

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Sunday...

>> Sunday, December 07, 2008

Thanks so much for all of your report of seeing or not seeing snow. I appreciate it!

Cold start to the day today with lots of temps in the 20s. We should see lots of sunshine through the day with highs in the 40s.

Our big storm system this week continues to take shape on the modeling. As it looks now, some rain is possible Tuesday, then rain and some storm look possible Wednesday. We will have to watch for severe weather potential. Then, the models remain all over the place with the handling of the last piece of energy with the trough Thursday.

Some modeling continues to indicate the chance of at least a bit of snow on the backside of the system, while some does not. No need to get excited or disappointed at this point.

Everyone have a great Sunday!

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