Big storm system this week....

>> Monday, December 08, 2008



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I show you some of the differences in the modeling regarding this week's system.

Dry today with some high clouds and highs in the 40s.

Huge game tonight at Bank of America Stadium....Monday Night Football....9-3 Bucs at the 9-3 Panthers. This is a big game in our house....my wife is a big Bucs fan, and I am a Panthers fan. So, I will be dragging tomorrow morning....have to stay up to watch the game tonight. As for the weather at the game, clouds will roll in with temps dropping into the upper 30s, but no precip.

The chance of light rain begins tomorrow, and then the rain will likely be heavy at times later Wednesday into Thursday. At least 2-3" of rain look possible at this point. Also, a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out, but this does not have the look of a big severe weather outbreak at this point.

Lots of folks wondering about the snow chance later Thursday. Again, be sure and see the video above. The 0z GFS looked very nice if you like snow in the western Carolinas. The 0z European model was similar, but a bit slower and a bit warmer. The 6z GFS has come in MUCH slower than even the European, and keeps things all rain in the Piedmont. Frankly, I do not think the 6z GFS handled things correctly, but we will see in later runs.

So, things remain unchanged in terms of my opinion. I still think it is possible we could see some snow on the backside of this system later Thursday or Thursday night, especially in the northwest Piedmont. But, it remains a big question mark at this juncture, and it remains just that....a possibility. The models will continue to struggle to resolve the details of this system due to its very complex nature, so we will not be able to tell you with certainty what should happen for a couple of more days. Stay tuned....

5 comments:

James 8:03 AM  

Definately an interesting scenario on the 0z GFS. I'm just north of Hickory and if the cold air tries to come down from the north.. we won't have the moutains to slow it down before reaching us. Whether or not the snow event pans out.. I am happy that all of NC will get a good soaking rain event.

Burgertime 8:35 AM  

Hope we get some snow. I always get excited when I look at the weather channels 7 day forecast and see a snow call 8 days in the making. Am I always disappointed when the next day it changes? Yes. Still fun though!

Anonymous 11:16 AM  

Hi Matthew, I saw that some ridging is expected here after we get done with the storms this week, which I know means warm weather (sigh). I was wondering if you've noticed that, and if so, how long the ridge is expected to stay in place before we get colder air back? Thanks for all you do.

Anonymous 12:03 PM  

Matt,
Has there a been a certain trend on things? It seems the GFS has been pretty consistent in trending cool and snowy for NC....other models I don't know but the GFS seems to have blips but the overall reading has been good. Is the picture becoming ANY clearer? What's you gut say? Other than it's probably rain!:)

Brad

junior weather man 8:32 PM  

Matthew,

This is Brian, i have been wathcing the models and they show good options for a good thumping of snow... i think this may carry out! also, this morning, was there a chance for snow flurries because i was at school (Burns High School)this morning and it was around 8:30-9:00 and it was snowing!! do you have any explaination?
Thanks,
Brian

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