Big-ticket storm system...
>> Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I encourage you to take a look at it....lots on the menu today, and sometimes it is easier to show you things that it is to tell you through typing.
Quite a dynamic and complex storm system taking shape. Today, severe weather is a concern in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, snow is flying in the Midwest and portions of New England.
Around here, this storm system will impact us in several phases. Today and tonight, we will see some showers at times with highs in the low to mid 50s. Tonight, temperatures will hold steady or even rise a bit as the southerly flow gets even more pronounced.
The airmass will likely become unstable enough tomorrow for the possibility of a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. We will watch for any severe weather potential. The best shot of seeing severe weather in the Carolinas looks to be along and to the south and east of I-85.
Then, another area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf and lift up in our direction. As it stands now, I expect a soaking rain Wednesday night and Thursday.
Later in the day Thursday, the temps will begin to drop, and it is still possible that portions of the Carolinas will see this system end as a little bit of snow. The best chance of that will be in the mountains, foothills, and northwest Piedmont.
Like I mentioned, this is a very complex storm system, and the details will continue to change as we get more data available.
6 comments:
Matthew,
this is Brian. I was wondering is the upper part of cleveland county (Lawndale) considered the northwestern peidmont or not? And will the bit of snow that may fall this week accumulate to anything or not. Also, are there anymore storm systems in the near future showing the potential for some good snow.
Thanks,
Brian
The forecasted highs for Piedmont today were all between 49 and 56. It's 64 degrees here in the piedmont right now. The other night it got 19 here when the forecast called for a low of 26. How can these tempcasts be so off? It's crazy how inaccurate they have been lately. Maybe they assume no one is checking to see if the forecasts becomes truecasts, mais je suis! Gives me hope for Thursday night though, maybe the models will be wrong on that temp, so we can get some snowww!
if we do see severe tomorrow, what are the main threats?
Brian....I would consider northwest Piedmont as Davie, Surry, Yadkin, Wilkes county, etc...And nope, looks like a milder pattern in ther eastern US for a while after the cold shot to end this week.
Nathan...Yep, I forecast a high for the Triad of 52. That obviously busted horribly. The warm air advection that kicked into gear today was greatly underestimated by the models, and by me. I can't speak for any other outlets, but I certainly always check to see how my forecasts verify. And I hate blaming the models for a bust...they are only tools for us to use. However, something like today would have been tough to forsee. And yeah, certainly nothing is set in stone with this system.
As for severe potential, this is a classic high shear-low instability environment. Typically, the biggest threat would be damaging winds, although an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. We will get a better handle on that potential in the morning.
The Matthew,
The way TWC is calling it is that this storm system will be no where near as strong tomorrow as it was today. That the tornado support is a whole lot less then what it was today. Do you see that true?
I think there is some threat of tornadoes in the Carolinas over the next 36 hours. It will all depend on the position of the frontal boundary.
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