Matthew and a major weather change...

HPC 5-day QPF map above.


No new video today, but a quick discussion.....

Tropical Storm Matthew (who is near and dear to my heart) is in the western Caribbean Sea this morning. Matthew will be battling various land interactions with central America over the next few days, and that will be the main determining factor in the short term regarding Matthew's intensity.

Generally speaking, Matthew will head west-northwest before the steering currents break down near the Yucatan Peninsula. From that point on, a great deal of uncertainty exists as to where Matthew will head. At this point, the long-term scenario that a lot of modeling is indicating is that Matthew will begin to lift north or northeast toward the Florida Peninsula and then possible riding up very close to the East Coast from north Florida up through the Carolinas.

However, let me stress that at this point, I have very little confidence in any one model solution, and it is simply too soon to tell where Matthew will head in the longer term.

Big changes on the doorstep....

For our region, a cold front will approach later tomorrow, and there will be some chance of some showers and storms later in the day. Then, it sure looks like a couple of wet days are on the way Sunday and Monday.

A cold air damming scenario will unfold. We will have a cool, northeasterly flow in place at the surface, and lots of moisture will get lifted up and over that wedge. As it appears now, it looks like a lot of the deeper moisture will pull away by Tuesday.

Sunday and Monday will be much cooler with 70s for a lot of highs....maybe even some Piedmont spots not making it out of the 60s! Rainfall amounts should be fairly generous...maybe widespread 1-3." The heavier amounts will likely end up in the mountains and foothills.

The forecast later in the week will largely depend on the eventual track of Matthew. If a track near the coast takes place, much of the interior Carolinas would be on the dry side of the system with a cool and dry forecast late in the week. A farther west track would lead to more rain. We will see....

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Fall has arrived....but summertime temps for a couple of days

Fall officially arrived late Wednesday evening, but summertime temps will persist for a couple more days. Today will be quite hot by late September standards with Piedmont highs in the low to mid 90s. It will remain hot tomorrow as well, although the overall highs will likely be a degree or two 'cooler' than today. Look for lots of sun today and tomorrow as well.

Big pattern change...

A major shift in the upper air pattern across North America is set to occur as we head through this weekend. For our region, we will see a cold front drop in Saturday. Saturday will still be quite warm with highs in the upper 80s to maybe some lower 90s, but the cooler air will build in thereafter.

A cold air damming scenario will set up Sunday into Monday and maybe Tuesday of next week. Sunday will likely feature a good deal of clouds and the chance of some showers and storms. How quickly the moisture begins to overrun the wedge will determine how warm we get Sunday, but overall, I am thinking some 70s for highs.

Monday looks like a wet day with highs in some spots possibly struggling to reach the low to mid 70s. I will maintain good chance of showers and maybe some storms Tuesday.

Beyond that point, it all depends on the tropics.

Tropics...

Lisa is a weak system....tropical depression as of now. Lisa will likely remain in the eastern or central Atlantic a generally be a non-factor for land.

The disturbance in the Caribbean is still disorganized this morning. However, most modeling continues to insist that this will develop into an organized system in time. If a classified system does develop, it stands a good chance of getting drawn northward into the Southeast later next week. Even is the system never does develop, the tropical moisture from that area will likely still get pulled northward into the Southeast next week, enhancing our rain opportunities.

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Hot weather to round out the work week....

Well above average temps will continue across the region through the end of the work week. Highs today will be in the lower 90s for most, and then look for low to mid 90s tomorrow and Friday.

I will continue to mention a very limited chance of a few isolated showers or storms late this afternoon and early this evening, but most spots will remain dry. I anticipate a mostly sunny sky tomorrow and Friday.

Big weather changes...

A major pattern shift will begin to unfold this weekend. Saturday still looks mainly dry and hot, but Saturday night and Sunday will feature the chance of some showers and storms. Highs Sunday will be much cooler...likely lower 80 at most for the Piedmont.

A big upper air low will set up shop just to our west early next week, and that will put us on the unsettled side of the system. That is good news...we need the rain. As it stands now, the weather Monday through Wednesday is looking unsettled and much cooler. I have good chances of showers and storms on those days and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Lisa is way out on the other side of the Atlantic. A very slow movement to the west-northwest is likely with the system.

While it doesn't look terribly impressive this morning, there is a good likelihood that a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea will eventually become Matthew. Almost every computer model eventually draws this system northward and winds up making this system a threat to the US by the beginning of October. Plenty of time to watch it.

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Changes ahead....eventually.....

The warm and dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week with highs well above the seasonal averages. In fact, many spots through Friday, and maybe even Saturday, will remain at least 10 degrees above average for high temps.

However, my confidence is much higher today in the timing of a significant pattern chance. Those weather changes begin this weekend.

A strong cold front will approach later Saturday, and that front does look to bring the chance of some showers and storms, especially Saturday night into Sunday.

That front will be propelled southward by a significant trough that will carve itself out across the eastern US. If that does indeed occur, and I am more confident today that it will, then we will wind up with highs at or even a bit below normal by early next work week.

Tropics...

Igor is becoming a non-tropical low pressure area today as it races through the north Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Lisa has developed in the eastern Atlantic. It looks to rather slowly meander around the eastern Atlantic Ocean through the week.

I continue to see good signs that another tropical system will likely develop in the Caribbean Sea later in the week. If that does occur, it could wind up being a potential problem for the US way down the road.

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ZZzzzzz......

Before I delve into the weather, let me just share what a putrid football weekend that was for me. My Bulldogs went down to Baton Rouge and came out of there with a sound defeat. 5 turnovers. Odd thing is, MSU outdid LSU in almost every major statistical category.....except turnovers. You are simply not going to win, really at any level of football, with 5 turnovers.

Then there is the Panthers. Ugh. My wife is a Bucs fan, and we really enjoy poking fun at each other on Panthers-Bucs gameday. Yesterday didn't turn out to well.....



On to the weather. As the title of this post indicates, the weather is such that it sort of puts you to sleep. Simply put, there is just nothing in the way of major storm systems headed our way. Highs each afternoon will continue to be well above September averages all week long...in fact, most days will feature highs in the lower 90s.

The drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. And once again, I have no formal rain chance in the entire seven day outlook.

Long term....

There continue to be come signs of a pattern chance in the 7-10 day range that might lead to some cooler temps....but nothing to really hang your hat on yet.

Tropics...

Igor lashed Bermuda for much of the weekend, but the island will see improvement today as Igor continues to pull away.

Julia continues to fall apart as it heads east way out in the Atlantic.

Most of the modeling is indicating some sort of tropical development will try to occur in the western Caribbean Sea late this week. If that does occur, that would likely be something to watch for US landfall implications down the road.

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