Earl pulling away...delightful weekend weather....

The center of Hurricane Earl did stay just east of the Outer Banks, meaning the worst of Earl's weather remains over the waters of the Atlantic. However, the Outer Banks continue to take a lashing with rain and wind this morning. There has been some overwash of Hwy 12 in spots, and the surf has been very impressive.

Conditions will improve along the coast later today as Earl lifts fairly quickly to the NNE. For our viewing area, today will be hot and a bit breezy with highs in the mid 90s.

Delightful Labor Day weekend weather...

The weather does not get much better than what we will get to enjoy this weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the low 80s for most, and Piedmont lows Sunday and Monday morning will be in the 50s with mountain lows in the 40s.

If you have beach plans for the weekend, go for it. The weather will be great with sunshine and warm afternoon temps. There will be some lingering rip current issues for a couple of days, so just use some caution.

Temps will warm up by mid-week next week with some lower 90s back in place for highs.

Elsewhere in the tropics...

Tropical Storm Fiona will head toward Bermuda as a relatively weak system.

Gaston degenerated into a tropical wave yesterday, but I think there is a pretty decent chance it will develop again over the next several days.

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Afternoon update...

Hurricane Earl has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane, and more gradual weakening is expected. It still looks like the center will pass just east of Cape Hatteras.

The wind field is expanding with the hurricane, so I have no changes in my thoughts that the OBX will see a period of hurricane force winds tonight. 4-10" of rain are possible, and I still expect beach erosion to be a significant problem. Overwash over Highway 12 still seems like a likelihood in some spots.

From looking at some of the shots from the Cams and Streams Page I assembled, you can really see the surf picking up. The stream from Top Sail beach is especially interesting to watch as the waves have already washed up and past the little dune fences.

High tide at Hatteras is around 2:30am, and this will obviously only add the the problem.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina through the night and into tomorrow for the most comprehensive Earl coverage you can find. We have reporters stationed up and down the coast, and we will bring you the very latest information around the clock.

The Weather on the Ones forecast centers around the state will be staffed all night long....I know Matt Morano and I will be in the office by around 1:30am to take the baton from Jeff Crum and Doug Lindsay for the Charlotte and Triad markets.

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All eyes on Earl....Big cool-down this weekend....

**Be sure and check out the Earl Cams and Streams page**



All eyes are on Hurricane Earl. Earl is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with 145mph sustained winds as of this morning. I think Earl has now peaked in intensity, and some gradual weakening will likely take place today. My feelings are that the center of Earl will likely pass just east of the Outer Banks as a Category 3 late tonight.

For the Outer Banks, rain will move in later today, and the wind will increase into tonight. There will likely be a several hour period of hurricane-force winds as the center makes its closest pass.

Surf will increase all up and down the Carolina coast today. Stay out of the water.....there will be tremendous rip currents. For the Outer Banks, a storm surge of 3-6 feet seems likely tonight, and waves near shore will likely be 10-maybe even 20 feet.

For the interior Carolinas, it will be hard to tell a major hurricane is so close. Some high clouds will be possible at times, but no rain, and winds only in the 10-20mph range. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s.

Behind Earl, Friday will be hot with highs in the mid 90s. But bit changes are right around the corner....

Labor Day weekend...

The big cool-down is still on tap for the Labor Day weekend. Highs Saturday through Monday will only be in the 80s, and lows Sunday and Monday morning will drop into the 50s in many Piedmont locations. Mountain lows will dip into the 40s.

Highs will briefly return to the 90s for the middle of next week before we cool down again toward the end of the week.

Elsewhere in the tropics...

Fiona is very weak and will head in the general direction of Bermuda.

Gaston will likely take a farther south track as it heads toward the northeast Caribbean, but it will be a very slow mover. It likely will still not have reached the northeast Caribbean islands by Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

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Still hot and dry....Earl getting closer to the coast...

Highs surged into the mid 90s across the region yesterday, and more of the same is on tap today. Again today, we will see plentiful sunshine and very low humidity levels.

Earl will approach the Outer Banks tomorrow but will have little impact here in the Piedmont. Winds will be slightly higher, but still less than 20mph, and we will remain rain-free. It will still be pretty hot tomorrow as well with highs in the low to mid 90s.

We will have one more hot day Friday before big changes occur. Highs Friday will be in the mid 90s with lots of sun.

Labor Day weekend...

A big-time switch to cooler air will arrive for the weekend. Saturday through Monday will feature highs in the 80s and a sunny sky. Low temps will drop into the 50s for most Piedmont locations Sunday and Monday morning! I fully anticipate some 40s up in the the higher mountain spots.

Temps will rebound next week with some 90s for highs at least briefly returning Tuesday and Wednesday.

Earl...

Earl weakened a bit overnight and is a Category 3 hurricane with 125mph sustained winds as of this morning. The upper level pattern around Earl will actually improve a bit today, so odds are Earl will at least hold its general intensity for the next 24 to 36 hours.

The general track ideas remain unchanged. The actual center of Earl will likely remain just east of the Outer Banks as it races northward Thursday night into Friday morning. However, it will likely be close enough for some rain and wind (with winds likely to hurricane intensity at times) in the Outer Banks.

I expect waves to be a big problem with some 15 foot to maybe even 20 foot seas possible. Obviously, rip currents will be a huge issue. Beach erosion will likely be a significant issue in some spots as well.

Any rain in the outer Banks will end by later Friday, and the seas will improve Friday as well. However, rip currents will remain a problem through the Labor Day weekend.

Fiona...

Fiona is a little improved in structure this morning, and the distance between Fiona and Earl is increasing. So, at this point, I doubt Fiona gets absorbed by Earl. If Fiona can survive the next several days, it might wind up getting trapped beneath a ridge and be an issue for somebody in the US down the road.

Don't look now, but there is another tropical wave east of Fiona that might eventually become Gaston.

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Hot and dry....Still watching Earl...

We will have more desert-like days today and tomorrow across the region with highs in the mid 90s in the Piedmont and very low levels of humidity. We will also continue to see lots of sunshine. Nights will remain pleasant with lows well down into the 60s.

It will remain fairly hot through the work week with 90s for highs through Friday. Any rain from Earl will remain confined to areas east of I-95.

Big cool down....

A strong cold front will pass through by early Saturday. Now, by 'strong,' I mean a front that features a big temperature change. I still think the rain chance with the front is extremely small.

Behind the front, look for 80s for highs Saturday through Monday. Morning lows will dip into the low to mid 60s, and I expect a number of Piedmont locations to dip into the 50s for lows Sunday morning. Some mountain lows in the 40s are entirely possible.

Earl...

Hurricane Earl is a powerhouse. The hurricane is a Category 4 with winds of 135mph as of the 5am advisory. Earl is going through what is called an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. This is where a new 'eye' develops outside of the original one, and that new eye will gradually take over. How quickly this process unfolds will determine the intensity of Earl today.

All in all, Earl should remain a powerful hurricane over the next couple of days, although some weakening seems likely as it begins to get closer to the coast Thursday. Earl still looks to brush very close to the Outer Banks Thursday night. Exactly how close to the coast is still a question mark.

All up and down the Eastern Seaboard, increased surf and rip currents will remain a big problem through the week. How much wind and rain the coast sees will be determined by the exact track.


Fiona...

The short-term prospects for Fiona are not too good. It is fairly close to Earl, and that will prevent significant strengthening. Lots of the modeling simply shows Fiona getting absorbed by Earl over the next several days. That is possible. Another possibility is that as Earl pulls away, Fiona gets 'trapped' beneath a developing upper level ridge and eventually gets shunted toward the coast later next week. Time will tell....

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Desert-like air....watching Earl closely

The next few days around the Carolinas will feature an airmass you would more typically see in desert regions. Look for a mainly clear sky, pleasant nights, and hot, low humidity afternoons. Highs today will be in the lower 90s...look for mid 90s tomorrow and Wednesday.

I will mention a few clouds Thursday for the Piedmont as Earl makes its closest pass to North Carolina (more on Earl below), then sunshine and low to mid 90s Friday.

Delightful Labor Day weekend...

The first 'real' cold front of the year looks to move through in time for a wonderful Labor Day weekend forecast. Highs will back down into the 80s, humidity will be very low, and lows will be in the lower 60s...maybe even a few Piedmont spots in the upper 50s....by Sunday and Monday.

Earl...

Hurricane Earl is strengthening in the northeast Caribbean Islands and will likely become a Category 3 hurricane today. Earl will gradually bend to the northwest over the next couple of days and will wind up passing very close to the Outer Banks later Thursday. The exact track is still in question, but it is close enough that all interests up and down the Carolina coast need to closely monitor Earl's progress. Locations even farther northward toward the New England states need to monitor Earl as well.

Regardless of the specific track, big-time surf and rip current issues will occur all week up and down the east coast.

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