Hot and dry....Still watching Earl...

We will have more desert-like days today and tomorrow across the region with highs in the mid 90s in the Piedmont and very low levels of humidity. We will also continue to see lots of sunshine. Nights will remain pleasant with lows well down into the 60s.

It will remain fairly hot through the work week with 90s for highs through Friday. Any rain from Earl will remain confined to areas east of I-95.

Big cool down....

A strong cold front will pass through by early Saturday. Now, by 'strong,' I mean a front that features a big temperature change. I still think the rain chance with the front is extremely small.

Behind the front, look for 80s for highs Saturday through Monday. Morning lows will dip into the low to mid 60s, and I expect a number of Piedmont locations to dip into the 50s for lows Sunday morning. Some mountain lows in the 40s are entirely possible.

Earl...

Hurricane Earl is a powerhouse. The hurricane is a Category 4 with winds of 135mph as of the 5am advisory. Earl is going through what is called an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. This is where a new 'eye' develops outside of the original one, and that new eye will gradually take over. How quickly this process unfolds will determine the intensity of Earl today.

All in all, Earl should remain a powerful hurricane over the next couple of days, although some weakening seems likely as it begins to get closer to the coast Thursday. Earl still looks to brush very close to the Outer Banks Thursday night. Exactly how close to the coast is still a question mark.

All up and down the Eastern Seaboard, increased surf and rip currents will remain a big problem through the week. How much wind and rain the coast sees will be determined by the exact track.


Fiona...

The short-term prospects for Fiona are not too good. It is fairly close to Earl, and that will prevent significant strengthening. Lots of the modeling simply shows Fiona getting absorbed by Earl over the next several days. That is possible. Another possibility is that as Earl pulls away, Fiona gets 'trapped' beneath a developing upper level ridge and eventually gets shunted toward the coast later next week. Time will tell....