>> Saturday, September 08, 2007
No major changes with the 11pm advisory.
Discussion and information regarding the weather that impacts the Southeast
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No major changes with the 11pm advisory.
Gabrielle is a minimal tropical storm with 40mph sustained winds. The system will scrape through the Outer Banks of North Carolina tomorrow afternoon and evening. Below is the text of my tropical discussion from the News 14 Carolina website.
I have the audio feel of the Mississippi State game pulled up here in the weather office. Kickoff is at 7pm.....at the Superdome playing Tulane. Go Dawgs!
Maximum sustained winds were near 40mph with gusts to 50mph. The system was located about 185 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina and was moving to the northwest at close to 8mph.
The center of Gabrielle will move near or over the coast of North Carolina Sunday afternoon and evening. For the North Carolina coast, from the Crystal Coast northward through the Outer Banks....expect winds to gust over 50mph at times by Sunday afternoon and evening, a storm surge of 2-3 feet, and rain totals of 2" - 3" with localized abount to 5" possible.
The NHC went ahead and pulled the trigger on naming the system this evening. The system looks very ragged as I am typing this, but some slow strengthening is possible into Saturday. More as Saturday unfolds....
Well, recon has headed home without finding a closed low level circulation. So, we still have no classified tropical system at the moment. However, it will not take much organization to had a tropical depression of tropical storm on our hands.
If you have beach plans this weekend, Myrtle Beach could see some gusty winds and rain, but the worst effect will likely occur along the North Carolina coast. The weather will head downhill with some winds and rains by Sunday. All along the North and South Carolina coast, expect some heavy surf and rip currents this weekend.
Our little low pressure has developed some nice convection today, and as is often the case in this type of scenario, the low level center is reforming closer to some of the deep convection. So far, a recon plane in the system has yet to find a closed low level circulation due to this reforming process. Here is a statement from the NHC....
Well, it looks like shear has relaxed this morning as anticipated, and thunderstorms are blowing up near the center of circulation. It is not a definite that this will now develop into a tropical system, but if it is going to, it now has a chance. My thoughts are we probably have a classified tropical system by tonight. We shall see. It all will depend on if the system can develop and sustain convection near that center.
Well, it has been a busy day for me from start to finish. Here is how my schedule has been today...
The low pressure out in the western Atlantic has certainly not done any developing yet, and shear continues to take a heavy toll. The low pressure looks sickly at best right now. This is the point when it is tempting to say...'oh well, this one is done.'
While it is a definitive possibility that this system never even develops, I think we need to give it until at least tonight. The shear should relax by this evening, and if we don't see any organization by this time tomorrow, then we can say this was much ado about nothing. But, at this point, all computer modeling I see this morning still develops this into a tropical system.
Until then, we watch and wait.
Below, I will post my commentary I placed over on the News 14 Carolina website. However, I wanted to add a couple of items here.
As I mentioned in the previous post, I think once the shear relaxes on the low pressure area, all other conditions appear lined up for this thing to develop pretty quickly. A recon plane is heading into the system this afternoon, and it will be interesting to see what they find. It is apparent that a low level circulation exists, and it is really just a matter of getting convection to wrap around that center.
Most modeling is indication an East Coast landfall, and the Carolians appear to be the hot zone right now. In fact, the 0z Canadian run and some recent European model runs slam an intense hurricane into the Carolina coast.
I simply cannot make any specific forecasts on where this system will head until it actually develops better, structurally speaking. However, I will be keeping the blog warm with any ideas I have as the next several days unfold.
Below is the text I placed on the News 14 Carolina website.....
There is a low pressure area with a well-defined low level circulation located about 400 miles WSW of Bermuda this afternoon. However, it is being impacted by significant shear, and that has kept the significant thunderstorm activity associated with the system displaced off to the east of that low level center.
It appears that the shear will relax by tomorrow. If that does indeed occur, I think the conditions are ripe for this to develop pretty quickly. In fact, odds are that we will have Gabrielle on our hands within the next 36 hours.
A ridge should develop over the system late in the work week, and that should steer the system generally to the WNW. A landfall is possible really anywhere between the Georgia coast and the mid-Atlantic states (and the possibility exists that this will simply turn out to sea before making landfall), but the most likely eventual landfall spot looks to be the somewhere along the Carolina coast at this point.
If you have beach plans this weekend, I would not alter those plans just yet. However, please remain up to speed on this possible system's progress.
Around here, we could see some much-needed rain from the system later Saturday into Sunday. However, if the system skirts by to our east, a dry weekend would likely unfold.
Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina...we will have a full tropical updated for you every hour and :21 and :51 past.
I really think the potential is increasing for a tropical system hit to the Carolinas this weekend. The system is still heavily sheared this morning, but once that shear relaxes, the system should really pop. Track guidance will be fluid until the system becomes better defined, but most modeling now takes this system to the Carolina Coast.
More details later today. Prepping for my on-air shift now.....
Felix is making landfall as I type this in northern Nicaragua as a Category 5 hurricane. To my knowledge, this is the first time in recorded history that two Category 5 hurricane's have made landfall in the same season in the Atlantic Basin.
Felix deepened significantly overnight, and this is a horrible situation for the folks in northern Nicaragua. Thoughts and prayers are with them.
And, it sure looks like our little low pressure off of the Southeast coast will try to develop into a tropical system. Almost all computer modeling is now showing the system developing and strengthening. Some modeling takes the system to New England, some to the Outer Banks, and some down to Florida. Stay tuned....
Felix is now a Category 5 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are now 165mph. The recon mission has been aborted due to the plane experiencing extreme turbulence and groupel!
The plane did measure even higher surface winds, but that dropsonde may have been contaminated by groupel.
You are witnissing something hostorical folks. Exactly 24 hours ago, Felix was classified as a hurricane...now, Category 5. Absolutely amazing.
THERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY. FELIX
HAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT
THE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A
SYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE
TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CERTAINLY APPLY HERE. THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 120 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 128 KT BUT THIS IS
A SPOT WIND THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
I am a husband, father of five, and meteorologist. I am a believer in the Lord Jesus Christ and am thankful for all of the Lord's blessings in my life.
"He is not here, but He has been resurrected!... Luke 24:6