Gabrielle??

Below, I will post my commentary I placed over on the News 14 Carolina website. However, I wanted to add a couple of items here.

As I mentioned in the previous post, I think once the shear relaxes on the low pressure area, all other conditions appear lined up for this thing to develop pretty quickly. A recon plane is heading into the system this afternoon, and it will be interesting to see what they find. It is apparent that a low level circulation exists, and it is really just a matter of getting convection to wrap around that center.

Most modeling is indication an East Coast landfall, and the Carolians appear to be the hot zone right now. In fact, the 0z Canadian run and some recent European model runs slam an intense hurricane into the Carolina coast.

I simply cannot make any specific forecasts on where this system will head until it actually develops better, structurally speaking. However, I will be keeping the blog warm with any ideas I have as the next several days unfold.

Below is the text I placed on the News 14 Carolina website.....

There is a low pressure area with a well-defined low level circulation located about 400 miles WSW of Bermuda this afternoon. However, it is being impacted by significant shear, and that has kept the significant thunderstorm activity associated with the system displaced off to the east of that low level center.

It appears that the shear will relax by tomorrow. If that does indeed occur, I think the conditions are ripe for this to develop pretty quickly. In fact, odds are that we will have Gabrielle on our hands within the next 36 hours.

A ridge should develop over the system late in the work week, and that should steer the system generally to the WNW. A landfall is possible really anywhere between the Georgia coast and the mid-Atlantic states (and the possibility exists that this will simply turn out to sea before making landfall), but the most likely eventual landfall spot looks to be the somewhere along the Carolina coast at this point.

If you have beach plans this weekend, I would not alter those plans just yet. However, please remain up to speed on this possible system's progress.

Around here, we could see some much-needed rain from the system later Saturday into Sunday. However, if the system skirts by to our east, a dry weekend would likely unfold.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina...we will have a full tropical updated for you every hour and :21 and :51 past.