Saturday evening thoughts...

First things first, the radar is impressive back over the southern Plains this evening. I think we stand a good chance of seeing some light rain tomorrow, and I still say a few sleet pellets or snow flurries could mix in in the Piedmont....doesn't look like any big deal though.

The computer models continue to print out some varying scenarios with our Wednesday night-Thursday potential system. Almost all modeling in indicating precip moving in by Thursday here in the Carolinas, but by far the best model for snow-lovers is the GFS. For 3 runs in a row now it has dumped heavy snow into the western Carolinas Thursday.

It is simply too early to know how this one will pan out. I feel like the GFS may possibly be indicating too strong a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico, which then lifts up the Carolina coast. But with that said, I do like the chances of at least overrunning precipitation developing Thursday. And present indications continue to be that some wintry weather could very well be involved in the western Carolinas.

This could all change, but that is my thinking as of now.

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Saturday morning...

Model confusion continues in the outlook for next week.

In short, the 0z GFS suppressed our Wednesday-Thursday system too far south for us to see any significant precip. However, on the very next run, the 6z dumps heavy snow in western North Carolina Thursday.

For the storm next weekend, the 0z developed a monster low pressure area that brought us rain with some wrap-around snow potential behind the system. The system has essentially vanished from the 6z run.

On the 0z European, it is ill-defined with our mid-week system, bringing some precip in here toward the end od the work week. The 0z Canadian brings precip in here Thursday.

In short, who knows at this point? The upper level disturbance responsible for the Thursday system is entering western North America today, so I would imagine modeling will at least have some idea what is going on with the 0z runs tonight.

The 0z GFS was a bit of a kill-joy for snow lovers in the Carolinas, but the 6z obviously looked great for western N.C. But as you know.....you can't live and die by each run of each model. The bottom line is there is at least POTENTIAL for some type of wintry weather next week, and I will continue to try and hammer it out for you....

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Friday Evening...

Well, our Sunday system looks to bring us some light rain, possibly mixed with some sleet pellets or snow flakes, but it does NOT look like a big deal at all. This system just looks like it will wind up being to weak to bring anything significant.

But, keep your head up snow fans.....next week looks very interesting. Most modeling is agreeing that we will have a system move through Wednesday or Thursday. Depending on the track, that one could produce some wintry weather. The last few runs of the GFS have indicated some major winter precip for the Carolinas from that system. So it is one to watch for sure. And, the GFS even brings in another system next weekend. We shall see.

I am still working on tweaking the videos. I am having problems with the audio being distorted and skipping some. I am using Windows Media Encoder, and if anyone has any suggestions, please let me know....

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Friday morning...

The rain has exited out of the area this morning, and as I am typing this, the clearing line (talking about clouds) is steadily progressing through western North Carolina. So, we should see lots of sun by later today.

After reviewing all of the overnight model data, there really isn't one single model I have found that is still indicating a decent system for us Sunday. Almost all modeling now takes the system off the coast as a much weaker system than earlier indications were.

Frankly, this surprises me.

The system in question is just now getting over the upper air network, so I will leave my ideas alone until after I review all of the 12z model suite data this afternoon.

As it stands now, it looks like it is just about time to throw in the towel in terms of wintry weather hopes with the Sunday system. But like I said, let's wait until at least this afternoon to throw the towel in completely.

I haven't mentioned this yet mainly because I have been focusing these posts on the more short-term issues. But, I will say the pattern from the second half of next week on through much of the rest of the month looks very interesting. There will probably be a couple of system affect us toward the end of next week. The first one should move through late Thursday or Friday with a second one possible late next weekend. There will be some cold air around for those systems to potentially work with, so who knows.

And, as January unfolds, it looks like we might try to get into a split-flow pattern around the U.S. As followers of the weather know, that can often lead to some winter weather threats around here.

So, keep your head up snow lovers....maybe we can get one of these systems to line up for us sometime.....

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Some Thursday Evening Notes....

Wedge holding firm as I am typing this in the Piedmont with temps in the 40s for most. The wedge should scour out later tonight, and temps will rise overnight. Showers will spread back in tonight, and a few storms could be involved late tonight through about mid-morning Friday.

I am not overly impressed with severe weather chances in the Charlotte or Triad viewing areas, but a couple of storms could become strong to severe...damaging winds should be the main threat.

On to Sunday's system, and boy do the models continue to flop around. For tonight, I am not going to change my ideas. Those ideas are that we see some rain move in Sunday, and that rain could end as a bit of snow later Sunday or Sunday night...mainly over western parts of the area.

The general idea I am getting today is that wintry weather is looking a bit less likely, but like I said, I am not going to change anything tonight. Let's wait until our current storm system clears out of here and we get the next system into the observation network in North America...it is still over the Pacific this evening.

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Deep South severe weather....

A nasty severe weather outbreak is getting underway across parts of Mississippi and Alabama. Tens of tornado warnings have already been issued, and this is going to be along afternoon and evening for those folks.

That is my old stomping grounds. The station at which I worked for 3 1/2 years before coming to News 14 Carolina is located in Tupelo, Mississippi. You can go to their website and click on their live coverage link on the right side of the page.

Also, I am from the Birmingham area, and I interned for six years at ABC 33/40. They have a continuous, live stream going, and you can watch by going to their web page and clicking on the link on the right.

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Thursday morning...

Showers have begun to move through the Piedmont this morning as expected, and that shower chance will continue all day. Tonight, the airmass will get more unstable, and some thunderstorms could become involved. While I don't think severe weather will be a huge problem, certainly one or two strong to severe storms look possible. The main window of concern looks to be from about 1am until 11am early Friday morning.

The big severe weather threat with this system looks to be back in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. A significant severe weather episode is possible there this afternoon into tonight.

As for our Sunday-Monday system, I think the GFS finally has gotten the right idea with its 6z run today. The European model has been generally locked in for several runs in a row now, and now that the GFS has gone the way I thought it would, I am pretty confident that the low pressure will track close to what the 6z GFS shows.

What does that mean for us? Well, at face value, this system still looks to me like one that produces rain and possibly ends as some snow. I am not big on the chances of significant snow outside of the mountains or possibly foothills, but I am not ready to rule it out yet. Let's get a few more model runs in hand....

Below is a frame from the 6z GFS. It is the 6-hour precipitation amounts plotted along with surface pressure and 850mb temps....

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Wednesday afternoon....

New video is cut and posted below. I have been able to review only some of the 12z data so far. I think the 12z GFS is again garbage with its track so far off the coast of the Sunday-Monday system. Interested to see the new Euro run in an hour or so....I think it is on to the right ideas with its 0z run.

My thinking with this system is that this is beginning to have the look of a rain-producing system that ends with a bit of snow in parts of the Piedmont and Foothills. However, don't hold me to that until we get within 72 hours or so of the event. All options are still on the table.

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Wednesday morning...

I am putting together the forecast packages now.....but I wanted to note that I think the 0z GFS is garbage with the Sunday-Monday system. The Euro looks much more correct, and the 6z GFS is trending that way. The 12z runs today will be interesting.

Taken verbatim, the Carolinas, outside of the mountains, will have some temperature issues if you are looking for snow. But, one thing at a time...let's let the models finish figuring out that there will be a storm, then we can get on with the details...

I will have a video posted sometime later today...check back for that and more information in another post....

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Note to snow fans....

Don't let your hopes and disappointments ebb and flow with each run of each model. This is another case where the models will not have a good idea of what will happen with the Sunday system until Thursday or Friday, so any one specific model run, at this point, is not a reason for celebration or disappointment.

What you watch for in this time-frame is TRENDS in the modeling, and frankly, to this point there hasn't been one. I am curious to see the latest European model run to see if it has any consistency with its 0z run last night.

At this point, I do think we will have a storm system affect the Carolinas Sunday into Monday. I don't think the models that are showing no system at all are correct. But, we could wind up in the 50s with rain or we could end up with snow flurries....or anything in between.

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Quick Tuesday morning hit...

Some quick notes...

1. 0z and 6z GFS runs have stuck to the idea of snow in the western Carolinas with the Sunday-Monday system. In fact, the 0z GFS indicated a prolonged light to moderate precip event.
2. The 0z European has come around to a solution somewhat similar to the GFS, indicating some snow potential for the western Carolinas. The 12z Euro run yesterday was completely lost with no storm at all.
3. The Canadian continues to show a much farther west track, giving the Carolinas all rain.

If you are looking for snow, I would be concerned that the dreaded "northwest trend" will develop in the modeling as we get closer to the event. But, if we can keep the track of the low pressure somewhat suppressed, like recent GFS runs have shown, the western Carolinas could be in good shape. Time will tell.....

I should also mention a few storms could occur tonight into tomorrow morning, and I think severe weather might be a problem in some spots early Friday. Active times ahead...

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Morning European

Well, I take a sit down at my desk this morning, pull up the overnight computer model runs, and what do I see? The GFS continues to flip around with a very suppressed solution for Sunday-Monday's system. But what got my attention was the 0z European model shifting its low track much farther to the south than yesterday's runs....to a track far enough south that western North Carolina would likely see some snow taken verbatim.

The models will undoubtedly shift their track between now and then, but it remains something that has my attention.

In the mean time, we have a couple of rain chances between now and then, so that is great news....

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Sunday Evening....

I was off yesterday to celebrate Grace's, my middle daughter, 3rd birthday. It is amazing how quickly time flies. Family was in town and came over, and we had a good time. My oldest daughter is next in the East family birthday parade, and she has put in the request for a Chuck E. Cheese birthday party. But we have a few months to get ready for that one...

On the weather front, quite mild for the next few days. Some lower 70s will occur in spots Monday and Tuesday. Enjoy! We don't get January days like this too often.

The storm track will shift southward by mid-week, and we will have several storm system roll through during the second half of the week. The first will bring some shower chances Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...maybe a few storms as well. The second system will bring some rain chances Thursday. Then a third system will probably impact the Carolinas around Sunday.

There have been some interesting model runs with the Sunday system...at times indicating some wintry precip potential. The 12z GFS Sunday showed some nice snow amounts in the Piedmont as a low pressure tracks from the Gulf into the western Atlantic. The European model is just a little different....tracking a low into the Ohio Valley!

If you are hoping for wintry weather (and believe me, I would love to see it), I would feel much better if the European was indicating the southern solution. I have a sinking feeling this might be another case where we see the GFS adjust the track northwest with time as we approach the event.

So, at the moment, wintry weather is probably a long shot, but at least it is something to watch.

Have a great week!

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