Thursday morning...

Showers have begun to move through the Piedmont this morning as expected, and that shower chance will continue all day. Tonight, the airmass will get more unstable, and some thunderstorms could become involved. While I don't think severe weather will be a huge problem, certainly one or two strong to severe storms look possible. The main window of concern looks to be from about 1am until 11am early Friday morning.

The big severe weather threat with this system looks to be back in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. A significant severe weather episode is possible there this afternoon into tonight.

As for our Sunday-Monday system, I think the GFS finally has gotten the right idea with its 6z run today. The European model has been generally locked in for several runs in a row now, and now that the GFS has gone the way I thought it would, I am pretty confident that the low pressure will track close to what the 6z GFS shows.

What does that mean for us? Well, at face value, this system still looks to me like one that produces rain and possibly ends as some snow. I am not big on the chances of significant snow outside of the mountains or possibly foothills, but I am not ready to rule it out yet. Let's get a few more model runs in hand....

Below is a frame from the 6z GFS. It is the 6-hour precipitation amounts plotted along with surface pressure and 850mb temps....