Severe weather in the South today...

The SPC has put out a 'moderate' risk of severe weather for portions of Alabama and Mississippi this afternoon into tonight, and a tornado watch will soon be issued. Frankly, the severe weather indices are through the roof. All of the ingredients necessary for a severe weather outbreak seem to be in place. Places such as Birmingham and Starkville were already into the lower 70s for temps as of 11am central time, and dewpoints were in the low to mid 60s. The cloud cover is also broken enough that intervals of sun are getting through.

A similar setup to today that is being discussed is March 27, 1994. That was the infamous Palm Sunday tornado outbreak. There are some differences (such as that day, the tornadoes wound up making it all of the way up into the southern Piedmont of NC...that won't happen today), but for Alabama especially, the setup is very similar. Sky-high indices, a front draped west-to east across the north-central part of the state, and a primed atmosphere. Like that day 17 years ago, the severe weather will likely come in multiple waves this afternoon into tonight...not just one big round of severe weather.

If you are interested, I wrote an account of the 1994 Palm Sunday outbreak within a post here on the blog back in early April of last year. You can find that post here.

For NC, a chilly, dreary day with many Piedmont spots in the 40s. Feels like Winter out there.

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Chilly, occasionally rainy weekend ahead...

**No video today due to double-market duty on News 14 this morning.**

Dry conditions today with highs ranging from the upper 50s to the low to mid 60s. This comes after a cold, frosty start to the day with lots of lows in the 30s.

The weekend continues to look chilly with occasional waves of rain moving through.Rain will spread in from west to east tomorrow, and when the rain arrives in your back yard will determine how warm you get. Up around the VA border region, highs probably never make it to 50. Maybe low to mid 50s across the southern Piedmont. Look for similar, even maybe chillier, temps Sunday.

If this pattern were occurring a few weeks ago, we would be discussing how much snow and ice we would be getting. Snow will wind up pretty far south...into southern Virginia even.

A couple more systems are lined up for next week...one around Tuesday night and another late Thursday into Friday. So, the cooler, more active pattern will continue.

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Cooler air settling in...

In today's video, a look back at the severe weather yesterday evening, a look ahead at the cooler temps settling in, including some frost chances, as well as a chilly, damp weekend. Plus, a look at the longer range.

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Tornado Watch

A tornado Watch has been issued for eastern Tennessee into western North Carolina(including all of the mountains and the northern foothills) and up into western CA and SE WVA. The watch is formally out until 10pm, but of course, counties will be cleared from west to east as the threat diminishes.

The biggest threats will be damaging winds and hail, but a few tornadoes are possible.

It is also possible that the severe threat will wind up extending farther east into NC and SC later this evening. Time will tell how much the storms weaken as instability wanes the farther east you go.

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Warm Wednesday....changes on the way...

What an incredibly mild start to the day in the southern Piedmont and Upstate. At 5am, the CLT temp was 70! Low at CLT this morning was 63...only 3 shy of the warmest low on record for March 23.

Highs today for most should be in the low to mid 80s. Record highs will be challenged in Greensboro and Raleigh. It will also be pretty breezy, and the fire danger is pretty elevated today. So, avoid any outdoor burning.

There has been a little light rain in some spots already today, but the main shower and thunderstorm chance will run from later this afternoon through this evening. While the biggest severe weather risk is just to our north and west, I do think a few storms could produce damaging winds and maybe some hail. So, we will watch it closely.

Big-time pattern change....

Highs will be in the 60s tomorrow, then the downward temp trend continues through the weekend into early next week. It is a fairly chaotic pattern from this weekend through Tuesday with a series of low pressure areas moving through...the strongest of which will be the last one.

I will mention a chance of rain both weekend days, and then the final low likely moves through later Monday into Tuesday. Cold air damming will be involved much of the time, and highs by Tuesday will likely only struggle into the 40s in the damming areas. That will feel chilly after the 80s!

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Very warm today, but BIG changes about to unfold

Here is today's edition of the video. Tons and tons to talk about. 80s today, scattered showers and storms this evening, then a much cooler, wetter pattern. Give the video a watch...

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Changes are coming....

After 70s yesterday, the Piedmont will see low to mid 80s today and tomorrow. Enjoy!

A cold front will near the region by late tomorrow, and the chance of at least some scattered showers and storms will spread in from west to east by late afternoon then through the evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, and we will watch the storms closely. The probabilities from the SPC are actually fairly high in the Day 2 outlook, and if those probabilities hold, somebody, especially around the Ohio Valley, could be in a moderate risk in the Day 1 outlook for tomorrow.

Pattern change...

We are on the cusp of a pattern change....changing to a cool, wetter pattern. Highs in many places Thursday and Friday will be in the 60s, and then we get to the weekend. It is still a fairly chaotic situation to try and figure out the details, but we will likely see one system move through Saturday and Saturday night, and another one from late Monday into Tuesday. But the timing is still very much in question.

Both systems looks like pretty good rain producers, and both could have some degree of cold air damming in the favored CAD areas. In fact, if the European is right, some places would be doing good to see mid to upper 40s Tuesday.

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Lots to talk about...

A lot to discuss in today's video. 80s today and tomorrow, a severe threat late tomorrow, then a cooler, wetter pattern ahead. Give it a look...

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Warming trend once again...

Be sure and scroll to the post below for today's Carolina Weather Video.

Highs last Friday were up into the mid 80s in many spots....and many records tumbled. Saturday featured highs in the 70s, then it was cooler yesterday with Piedmont highs in the 50s and 60s.

Today, we begin another warning trend with highs in the low to mid 70s. Then, look for highs in the low to maybe mid 80s tomorrow and Wednesday.

A frontal boundary might be just close enough this evening to kick off a couple of showers near the VA border, but the chance of rain in any one spot is small. Late Wednesday into Wednesday evening, a few showers or storms are possible as the next system presses through.

Behind that system, cooler air arrives for the end of the work week with some 60s for highs Thursday and Friday.

Weekend...

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the specifics of a complex storm system for the upcoming weekend. For the time being, I will just broad-brush it and mention clouds and rain chances both Saturday and Sunday. I would imagine that I will be able to pin down the timing more by mid-week...

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Back to warmer weather...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. After some cooler temps Sunday, we are back into warmer air for the next few days...

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Sunday...

After mid-80s Friday and mid 70s yesterday, it will be a cloudy, cooler Sunday with highs in the 60s around the CLT region and low 60s...maybe a few upper 50s, the farther north you go toward the VA border. I also can't rule out a shower or two, especially up by the VA border.

We will be back into the 70s tomorrow and 80s in most spots again Tuesday.

Did anybody see get any good pics of the super full moon last night? If so, send them along....

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