Phil up in Pennsylvania saw his shadow, so, as the story goes, that means six more weeks of Winter. Of course, since we are only 5 or 6 weeks into Winter, seems to me Winter will continue until its normally-scheduled change to Spring on March 20. But I digress....
Enjoy the weekend....
The photo above is courtesy of The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
Groundhog Day is upon us, and it will be quite mild this weekend. It will also be dry this weekend, so get out and enjoy!
Some showers are possible Sunday night into Monday as a warm front lifts through the area. I think many locations will then have a shot at 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon before a cold front sweeps through by Wednesday morning. That cold front will bring us a round of rain and possibly a few storms Tuesday night.
We will then cool down behind that system a bit, but nothing overly cold at all. In fact, I don't see any major intrusions of arctic air into our part of the country for the next week or so.
I am in the forecast seat for the Triad market this evening, so that is where all my my forecasting energy has been spent.
A Freezing Rain Advisory will go into effect at 9pm for the northwest Piedmont, including Surry and Stokes counties. Ice Storm Warnings have been hoisted up in the mountains.
A well-defined wedge is now in place, and our airmass remains very dry. Much drier than most modeling is picking up on, by the way.
Rain will settle in tonight, and from the Triad on through the northwest Piedmont, there could be a period of freezing rain. For the Triad itself, I expect any freezing rain to be brief, and warm temperatures aloft should make it quite difficult for any ice to accumulate. Up toward Stokes and Surry counties, ice could accumulate, mainly on elevated surfaces late tonight. Even there, temperatures will likely kick above freezing tomorrow morning.
The main potential problem is some slick travel conditions in the northwest Piedmont during the overnight hours tonight.
This still looks like a nice, soaking rain with total rain amounts between 0.75" and 1.5"
A few storms might occur tomorrow morning, but it looks like the best chance of that occurring will be off to the east of the Charlotte and Triad regions.
Good morning! Certainly a cold start out there this morning, and our airmass is very dry as well.
Nice rain event still set for tonight into tomorrow. I am very pressed for time this morning, but I do see the NWS has put Stokes and Surry counties under a Freezing Rain Advisory for tonight and tomorrow morning.
Again, for the Charlotte region, this does not look like a big deal in terms of wintry weather. But, some sleet pellets could mix in tonight, mainly north and west of I-85. Up in the norhtwest Piedmont is where I might be more concerned about some icing potential.
Again though, I have not had much time to review data this morning. I am running out the door now to get two of my kids to a doctor's check-up. I will post some more information here later today...check back!
Lots of sun this afternoon with cooler temps in place. It will be cold tonight with lows in the mid 20s for most Piedmont locales.
It is interesting to watch our next storm system on the modeling. Our in-house model (Stormcast is its on-air name) continues to push the idea of significant sleet occurring north and west of I-85. It has done this for several runs in a row now. Most other modeling keeps the Piedmont as a cold rain.
For my afternoon forecast package, I have mentioned the chance for some sleet mixing in with the rain tomorrow night north and west of I-85. This airmass is quite dry, and I am sure there will be a good deal of evaporational cooling.
Travel problems?? I am leaning toward 'no' at this point, but we will keep watching it.
I also still like the chances of this being a good soaking rain for most...maybe between 0.75" and 1.5". That would be fantastic....
What a beautiful day today! It certainly was a bit on the breezy side, but all in all, hard to complain. I love snow as much as anyone else, but it was nice to spend some time outside over the past couple of days.
Some selected high temps today from around the region....
Thought I would share a couple of quick stories from the East household......
First, as I was getting ready for work Friday, my wife was preparing lunch. She had opened up a can of English peas, but for some reason, the lid of the can didn't quite open right. So, the reached her fingers in to pry it open....her fingers slip.....and yep, she slices three fingers open. She quickly wraps it up, and to her credit, she remained very calm. However, the blood was really flowing, the kids were running around a bit confused about what all of this excitement was about, and I was already set to call in sick to work so that I could drive her to get stitches. I got the kids corralled and settled down, and we were able to get her fingers wrapped up in some gauze. Thankfully, the bleeding eventually subsided, and we didn't have to make that run to the doctor. Mommy has been a real trooper the past few days 'playing hurt'.....but the fingers are looking much better today.
Secondly, we have had some sort of bug making its way through the kids this week. Our baby, who is almost 15 months old, climbed on to my stomach about 6:30 Saturday morning. That really is par for the course for a normal morning, so I didn't really pay attention to anything strange. She 'said' a couple of things, and then......throw up......covering me from neck to waist. My wife found this amusing and laid there laughing. I did not. I said, somewhat loudly "Are you kidding me?" to which she responds "Don't fuss at her." After several seconds, I ask her if she can get me something to wipe off with. She hands me....a t-shirt. After finally getting a towel, I take my shirt off, wipe off, and get set to lay back down (it was seemingly all confined to me and not the bed). So, I lay down and lay my head into.....throw-up on my pillow. Didn't see that in the dark. Decided it was time to get up for the day then.
It is funny now...wasn't overly amusing at 6:30am. But I would not trade these moments and memories for the world. I love it.
As far as the weather is concerned, I have removed any wintry weather wording for Thursday from my forecast packages this evening. At this juncture, it looks like we will be a tad too warm for anything wintry.
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