Big Nor'easter beginning....

The low pressure that brought soaking rains to our region last night is developing into a big nor'easter. I spend a lot of time looking at that, as well as a look at our upcoming pattern, in today's video:

Read more...

Soaking rain for the Carolinas.... Huge Nor'easter for the Northeast

Rain will spread into the Carolinas with time today, and then much of NC will have a soaking rain tonight. The heaviest rain totals will be the further east you go in the region, but most of us should see some decent totals.

Temps will ease into the 30s in some of the favored cold air damming spots tonight, but readings will remain above freezing, meaning no winter weather problems. 

Up in the mountains, this system will likely produce a mixed bag of precip types....probably some freezing rain involved at some point. Following the system, I expect a period of upslope snow later tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

This system will be a tremendous Winter storm for the Northeast. Some of the snow totals being printed out by some modeling are staggering. I will post some of those on Facebook and Twitter later today. 

While the exact totals are in question, the bottom line is that a huge, disruptive winter storm will impact much of the Northeast tomorrow and Saturday, and travel will be hugely impacted. 

Lots and lots of moving pieces on the forecast table next week.... please see the video for much more on all of this....

Read more...

Sunshine today.... rain arrives later tomorrow...

Here's today's video...give it a look:

Beautiful weather out there today with sunshine and highs running a bit above the seasonal averages.

Our next storm system will spread rain into the region by later tomorrow. For NC, the steadiest period of rain will be tomorrow evening and overnight.

A well-defined cold air damming setup will accompany this storm system. This will likely drop overnight temps tomorrow night into the 30s in many piedmont and foothill spots, however, most will stay just warm enough for rain.

The mountains will likely see some wintry weather out of this, and I can't rule out some wintry precip in the coldest locations in the northern foothills. See the video for more.

This storm system will really wind up into a big-time winter storm for the Northeast. In fact, if the European model is correct, this cranks out blizzard conditions for some of the big cities along the I-95 corridor.

Our weekend will be quiet, and then we will gear up for an unsettled period of weather next week. Exact details remain sketchy at this point.

Further down the road, I still see signs of a pattern that could produce at least a window of opportunity for some wintry weather chances....

Read more...

Milder today....next system by late Thursday...

Highs will push well into the 50s today...even some low 60s working in for some. A weak cold front moves through tonight, but all that front will do is deliver a sunny forecast for us tomorrow with highs maybe a degree or two cooler than today.

Our next system will be a nice Miller A type of system. Cold air damming will set up as this system arrives, but it's still too warm around here for wintry precip. However, the system has the chance to be another decent rain-producer, especially Thursday night.

That system could very well turn into a big-time Winter storm for parts of the Northeast.... I show some of the graphics with this in today's video.

I also give you some of my thoughts about the pattern for later in the month.... Give it a look:

Read more...

Quiet the next few days....

After chilly, breezy weekend conditions, quiet and milder air is heading our way. A weak system is approaching today, but we won't see and precip from it... just some mid and high level clouds today and tonight.

Highs tomorrow will be much milder...well into the 50s....even some low 60s in some areas. Still pretty mild then for Wednesday with lots of sun.

The next system will then roll through in the Thursday-Friday period..... the Euro model is the most aggressive with this system and therefore produces the most precip. There will likely be some degree of cold air damming as this system arrives, but it looks too warm for wintry precip.

Take a look at the video for more as well as some charts from early next week....

Read more...