Landfall....

HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
230 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL AT GALVESTON...

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE
MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT.


As the hurricane gradually weakens, the focus will slowly shift to
damage assessment, rescue, and recovery. Some of the initial reports are
fairly encouraging, but it is VERY early for this type of thing. Some of
the more significant damage will likely not be knows until later today.

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Friday and Ike...

See the new videos I have posted above. The Carolina Weather Video focuses on only the upcoming weather for the Carolinas. The Tropical Weather Video focuses on Ike.

Reports coming in that as of now, 50% of the population of Galveston Island has remained on the island....roughly 30,000 people. That is simply tragic. Hopefully those folks will get out today or I am afraid we will be dealing with numerous fatalities.

The Gulf has already made it on to large portions of Galveston Island, and the hurricane is still centered 200 miles away.

Also, a freighter has stalled offshore, and the Coast Guard is unable to mount a rescue mission. 22 people are on board, and they are apparently stuck to ride out the hurricane.

You can get feeling about various storm systems....I get the feeling this one is going to be one that is remembered for a long time to come.

Please check out the great link on the top of the right column....streaming coverage off all of the TV stations in Houston on one page.

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected.

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Friday Morning...

**Stay tuned....new tropical weather video coming later this morning....will be docked above.**

Hurricane Ike is gradually gaining strength today as it heads for landfall tonight. Ike is a huge hurricane in size, taking up much of the Gulf of Mexico. Due to its tremendous size, it has built up a very significant storm surge. In fact, there was storm surge flooding yesterday in places such as Tampa and Mobile....nowhere near the center of the hurricane.

Ike will likely come ashore tonight near or just west of Galveston Island. I anticipate huge problems with storm surge for Galveston and then into the low-lying areas of Houston. In fact, a significant storm surge can be expected for most of the Texas coast as well as the western Louisiana coast.

Ike could be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, and obviously winds will be a big problem as well. Ike's wind field is huge, so much of the Texas and Louisiana coast will experience a prolonged period of sustained hurricane force winds.

Check out this statement from the NWS regarding the Galveston area....

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES
WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF
HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

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18z Model Plots...

New guidance is in....not good for Galveston/Houston. Again, I think the storm surge is going to be a huge problem. Not only does this system seems to have a massive surge anyway, it looks to hit close to high tide. Also, the moon will be full, meaning both high and low tide are higher than average to start with.

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Amazing storm surge....

Ike is a huge hurricane. It's pressure is as low as is normally found in Category 3s or even some Category 4s. It's wind field is massive....stretching over a huge area of the Gulf.

Due to the low pressure and the amazing amount of energy Ike has, storm surge flooding is occurring in Mobile and Tampa today....nowhere close to the center.

I fear the storm surge on the Texas coast will be catastrophic.

Check out this link to see live footage of the storm surge flooding near Mobile.

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Thursday Morning...

First of all, some very heavy rain in spots yesterday. I know at my house we had some of the heaviest rain I have seen in a while between 4:00 and 5:00.

Today we are in the wedge, meaning dreary conditions with lows of clouds, some occasional light rain and mist, and highs only in the 70s. The wedge will erode away tomorrow, paving the way for a pretty hot weekend with highs in the lower 90s.

Ike is strengthening and should become a major hurricane fairly soon. This is looking very ominous for the Texas coast, and landfall will likely occur early Saturday morning somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. If the current NHC forecast holds, serious storm surge issues would occur in Galveston Bay and Houston.

I am working on the new addition of my weather video this morning and will have it posted a little later on. Stay tuned and give it a watch...

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Wednesday...

**New video posted above. Trying out some new software....still some bugs to work out, but I am just figuring out some of the cool stuff this program can do. Let me know what you think.**

On to the weather, a wedge will set up today and make for cooler conditions today and tomorrow. Highs both days will only be in the 70s for most. Also, in classic wedge fashion, expect lots of clouds and some showers from time to time.

The wedge will scour out for the weekend, and that will lead to much warmer conditions again with highs back up into the upper 80s to around 90.

Ike: Ike is gaining strength today, and I fully anticipate Ike will become a major hurricane again. It continues to look like Ike will make a Texas landfall, probably Saturday. Anywhere on the Texas coast remains fair game, and I think there is a very strong chance Ike will be a major hurricane upon landfall. Not a good situation....

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Tuesday....

Short on time this morning. See the video above for details on Ike and the upcoming weather pattern.

Showers and storms today and tonight...a few severe storms are possible. Nice wedge sets up tomorrow, and we could spend much of the day in the 60s!

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Monday.....

Back in the saddle this morning after resting up a bit over the weekend. LONG work week last week.

Ike: Ike is over Cuba today, and Cuba will take a significant toll on the system. I think Ike will likely be a tropical storm when it finally emerges off of Cuba and heads into the Gulf. If the inner core of the system is severely disrupted, it will likely take it 36-48 hours to get to a point where it can strengthen again. However, the environmental and ocean conditions in the Gulf look favorable for strengthening, and I think Ike stands a good chance of being a significant hurricane as it approaches the Gulf coast.

Anyone from the Florida Peninsula to the Texas coast needs to closely monitor Ike. Right now, the model consensus favors a landfall on either the upper Texas or Louisiana coastline next weekend.

Our weather: Warm today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few PM showers or storms look possible.

Tomorrow, a cold front will approach, and I expect a better coverage of showers and storms.

Behind that front, high pressure will wedge down the eastern side of the mountains Wednesday and Thursday. Because of the wedge, I expect highs only in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday with a good deal of clouds and some showers from time to time.

Sports: What a win for the Panthers yesterday. Good stuff. And, Mississippi State looked better with a 34-10 win over SE Louisiana Saturday evening. Up next, Auburn in Starkville for an ESPN 2 game.

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Sunday...

Ike is a Category 4 hurricane as I type this, and is pounding the southern Bahamas. Ike will then move across a good portion of Cuba and bend more to the northwest, passing likely just south of the Florida Keys and into the Gulf.

Ike will make a Gulf of Mexico later in the week, but where is still up in the air.

Ike is a dangerous hurricane. The hurricane will weaken due to its interaction with Cuba but should significantly re-strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico.

I will be spending today resting up from the LONG work week last week....I will post some more information for you Monday morning.

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