Violent severe weather outbreak....

...sure looks to be on tap today for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and many surrounding areas. The Storm Prediction has gone ahead and pulled the trigger on a 'high' risk of severe weather for portions of Mississippi and Alabama today. In any given year, there are normally only a couple of 'high' risk days. The last 'high' risk day was way back in June of last year.

As I am typing this just before 7am eastern time, the airmass is already quite unstable across much of Mississippi. That unstable air will advect northeastward into Alabama and portions of Tennessse and Georgia as the day unfolds. This could very well wind up being a scenario where multiple waves of rain and storms roll through the moderate and high risk areas today.

Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible in the areas outlined in today's severe weather outlook. And, it looks like the atmosphere might very well wind up being supporting of long-track, strong tornadoes in some instances.

Everyone in the areas outlined above need to have a reliable way of hearing weather watches and warning today into tonight. And this has been discussed in many other places already, but there are thousands of people camping at Talladega Superspeedway in eastern Alabama. Everyone there needs to have a plan of action in the event shelter needs to be sought.

For the Carolinas, the scenario is a bit more muddy. We will likely see some showers at times today and tonight, and as time unfolds, some strong to severe storms could be involved. The threat here is not as great as locations to the west, but some strong to severe storms are certainly possible late today into tonight.

Below is the Craven significant severe weather parameter....the first two images are valid late today into this evening, the third image is valid late tomorrow morning as the instability continues to spread into the Carolinas. All charts are based off of the 0z NAM. On the Craven chart, typically values in excess of 20 indicate a significant severe weather risk.

Sunday AM

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Robert's Post....

A few passing showers this morning with temperatures eventually reaching the upper 70s this afternoon. I will say there is a chance for storms this afternoon but I would hold off any really significant chance until Saturday and into Sunday.

With such a prolific storm system making its way through the Plains and into the Southeast I figured I would blog about the recent history of SPC convective forecasting.

Including yesterday we are set to have at least 3 moderate risk days in a row for the US. In the last 3 years we have only had 3 events where we saw 3 moderate risk days in a row, with none in 2009. It is not out of the question for Sunday to see a moderate risk as well, east of the I 85 corridor. This would make for four days of Moderate risk outlooks for the same storm system. From the research I have done I have been unable to find an event where this occurred.

The Convective outlook is issued 5 times a day by the Storm Prediction Center for up to 3 days and has three main criteria of Slight, Moderate, and High risk outlook. SPC also issues a thunderstorm chance line and regional text box which are both below slight risk, so they are not consider risk outlooks. These convective outlooks are based on the probabilities of the occurrence of three factors: tornadoes, hail, and wind. This basically means if there is a 30% chance or higher for tornadoes on day 1 then a moderate risk will be issued. Wind and hail probabilities must be higher for a moderate risk to be issued since they are consider less harmful to human life. For day 2 and 3 probabilities must be significantly higher than day 1 to issue a moderate risk. That is why you don't regularly see Moderate risk days on day 2 or even if ever on day 3.

High Risk days are even rarer; in the last 25 years the US averages about 3 high risk days a year. There has only been 3 consecutive high risk days once and only 1 high risk ever issued on day 2.

For this weekend I expect a high risk issued later on for today and then one for tomorrow as well. Should be interesting to see if a moderate risk is issued for NC on Sunday. As of right now this system is strikingly similar to April 8 1998 southeast outbreak. So we definitely need to keep an eye on this system.

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

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Powerhouse storm system crawling our way...

A powerful and dynamic storm system is churning into the southern Plains states today. Already, that system has produced a good amount of severe weather. I fully expect this storm system to wind up producing a serious and widespread outbreak of severe weather from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South tomorrow.

I am especially concerned about Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee tomorrow. To me, all of the ingredients look to be in place for a major outbreak of severe weather in that region. Granted, I have seen what looked like big-time severe weather setups wind up being rather docile, and that might happen this time. However, all of the players are on the field.

For the Piedmont of the Carolinas, we will see a good deal of clouds today with a chance of a shower or two in the northwest Piedmont today. Highs will be in the 70s.

Tomorrow, while the likely severe weather outbreak takes place to our west, we will see highs in the 70s with the possibility of some showers. By tomorrow afternoon, the healthier showers and storms will spread into Georgia, and by tomorrow evening and night, they will spread into the Carolinas. Severe weather will become possible in Georgia by tomorrow afternoon, and and severe weather in the Piedmont of the Carolinas would likely begin around the evening hours.

As colder air aloft moves in Sunday, we might wind up with another round of showers and storms by Sunday afternoon. Even on Monday, some showers could fire during the afternoon hours.

The weather then turns quiet again by Tuesday onward next work week.

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Great day today...unsettled weekend weather....

Today's weather will be enjoyable around the region with lots of sunshine and highs in the 70s. Should be a great day to spend some time outside.

A warm front will approach our area from the southwest tomorrow, and along with that will come a pretty good amount of clouds. Also, as we get into the afternoon hours, a few showers look possible with highs in the 70s.

Lots of uncertainty still exists with the specifics of this weekend's forecast. I expect a pretty significant severe weather outbreak over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley Saturday, and by late Saturday afternoon or evening, we will likely see some of those showers and storms move into the Carolinas. While the biggest severe weather potential looks to remain to our west, a few strong to severe storms are certainly possible.

Cooler temperatures aloft will move overhead Sunday while highs warm through the 70s. Those factors will combine to produce the opportunity for scattered showers and storms as Sunday unfolds.

Slightly cooler and quiet weather will arrive as we roll through next work week.

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Showers gradually end....watching the weekend...

The overnight hours featured showers at times with temps in the 50s. The storm system responsible for the showers is gradually pulling away from the region, but it is a slow process, and I will maintain the chance of some showers at times today, especially during the first half of the day for the Triad and Charlotte areas. Highs today will warm into the mid to upper 60s for most.

Tomorrow will be a bit warmer and dry with highs in the 70s.

A warm front will move through around Friday night, and some showers are possible at that time. Prior to the arrival of that warm front, we will likely see a day Friday that features a good bit of clouds with highs round 70 degrees or so. Some spots might be cooler depending on the clouds.

The weekend forecast continues to look fairly unsettled. The exact timing and placement of the weather features this weekend is still in question, but the general idea is that a fairly potent storm system will impact the region.

At this point, I will mention the chance of some scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night, and then rain and storms will highlight Sunday's forecast.

This system has good potential to bring severe weather through the Lower Mississippi Valley late Friday into Saturday, and that severe weather potential might wind up in the Carolinas as the rest of the weekend unfolds. Stay tuned....

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Some rain heading in

Clouds will gradually thicken today with the approach of our next storm system. Highs today will be fairly close to 70.

Some rain was across parts of the Tennessee Valley early this morning, and that rain will continue to east our way today. Some sections could see some light rain by late this afternoon, but the bulk of the rain will occur tonight into tomorrow morning.

We are not talking about a huge rain event, but I will think a quarter inch or so is possible in some spots.

The rain will exit tomorrow morning, then Thursday and Friday are looking primarily dry before our next system rolls in this weekend. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the specifics of this weekend's system....so for the time being, I will mention a chance of some showers and storms both weekend days.

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Super Bulldog Weekend

Many of you know that I am a proud Mississippi State alumnus. Super Bulldog Weekend is a terrific annual alumni event at Mississippi State. It combines all of the Spring sports at MSU with lots of food, fun, and friends. I make an effort to be there most years, and I was able to head down this past weekend. I always love getting back on campus.

Saturday is really the biggest day of SBW, and I was able to spend some time walking around campus, grabbing some food and some delicious Mississippi State ice cream, and taking in the baseball game and the Spring football game.

We ate lunch at one of the best BBQ places in the world.... The Little Dooey. The Little Dooey is now a franchise, and there is one in Concord. Here is my lunch plate Saturday.

For dinner, we stopped off in Tuscaloosa at Dreamland BBQ. Some of the best ribs you will ever put in your mouth.

A couple of shots from the baseball game. Over 11,000 people in attendance at the largest on-campus baseball facility in the country., Dudy Noble Field, Polk-Dement Stadium.

Here are some shots from the Spring football game. Over 34, 000 people were in attendance at the second oldest division 1-A football stadium, Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.

And this absolutely gives me chills and fires me up at the same time.

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Mild today....chance of rain by late tomorrow

After a great weather weekend, we will continue to enjoy pleasant afternoon conditions for our Monday with highs in the upper 60s for most. The day will feature sunshine through some high clouds at times.

Our next storm system is slowly approaching from the west, and that system will bring us a chance of some mainly light rain beginning late in the day tomorrow and extending into Wednesday morning. We could certainly use some rain...April has been very dry. But total rain amounts with this one will likely be under 0.25."

Thursday and Friday are looking dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Our next system will then move through over the weekend. Still lots of details to iron out with that one, but right now the best chance of showers and storms might wind up being on Sunday.

A little later today I will post a few pics from the past weekend....made it down to Super Bulldog weekend at Mississippi State....

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