>> Saturday, April 24, 2010
...sure looks to be on tap today for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and many surrounding areas. The Storm Prediction has gone ahead and pulled the trigger on a 'high' risk of severe weather for portions of Mississippi and Alabama today. In any given year, there are normally only a couple of 'high' risk days. The last 'high' risk day was way back in June of last year.
As I am typing this just before 7am eastern time, the airmass is already quite unstable across much of Mississippi. That unstable air will advect northeastward into Alabama and portions of Tennessse and Georgia as the day unfolds. This could very well wind up being a scenario where multiple waves of rain and storms roll through the moderate and high risk areas today.
Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible in the areas outlined in today's severe weather outlook. And, it looks like the atmosphere might very well wind up being supporting of long-track, strong tornadoes in some instances.
Everyone in the areas outlined above need to have a reliable way of hearing weather watches and warning today into tonight. And this has been discussed in many other places already, but there are thousands of people camping at Talladega Superspeedway in eastern Alabama. Everyone there needs to have a plan of action in the event shelter needs to be sought.
For the Carolinas, the scenario is a bit more muddy. We will likely see some showers at times today and tonight, and as time unfolds, some strong to severe storms could be involved. The threat here is not as great as locations to the west, but some strong to severe storms are certainly possible late today into tonight.
Below is the Craven significant severe weather parameter....the first two images are valid late today into this evening, the third image is valid late tomorrow morning as the instability continues to spread into the Carolinas. All charts are based off of the 0z NAM. On the Craven chart, typically values in excess of 20 indicate a significant severe weather risk.