Myrtle Beach
>> Saturday, June 02, 2007
It should be interesting to watch the observations from the Springmaid Pier at Myrtle Beach tonight.
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Saturday Evening Update...
First band of rain has pushed in from the south and is fizzling out over the northern part of our area. It looks like we will see some occasional showers through the night. Total amounts probably between 0.25" to an inch at most over eastern sections....the lightest amounts will be over western parts of the area.
Squally, windy, rainy weather for the beaches tonight and tomorrow. Winds could gust over 50mph along the South Carolina coast tonight and up through the Outer Banks tomorrow. Rough surf and dangerous riptides will be possible. The coastal weather will be much better Monday.
So close....
The swath of rain associated with Barry is trying ever so hard to push into our area from the south. Rain is falling in a good chunk of South Carolina and even up into parts of Anson and Richmond counties in the Charlotte region. And, I have to admit that the regional radars do look promising.
I think much of the Charlotte region will be able to get some rain out of this, but certainly the best chance for heavier amounts of rain will skirt by to our east. It is almost painful watching the rain try to crawl in here. Again, let's keep our fingers crossed that we can get at least some decent rain in here....
Saturday Morning
I am not liking the trends this morning with Barry in terms of us getting some decent rains from the system. It looks like the original idea of the system tracking up just off of the Carolina coast will wind up being a good one. While I still think we have a shot at some rain tonight into tomorrow, the chances for significant rains are diminishing with eash eastward jog of the system. It looks like much of the western Carolinas will be stuck on the dreaded "back side subsidence" side of the system.
Let's hope for the best. At least our friends in some horribly drought-stricken areas of Florida and Georgia are getting some much-needed rains.
Tropical Storm Barry
>> Friday, June 01, 2007
Below will be my discussion pulled from the News 14 Carolina weather website. A few additional notes here...the NAM finally came around to most other modelling with its 12z run today, so confidence is higher in the eventual track of this system. It looks like the originaly idea posted here of the system remaining close to the coast is still a good one.
My News 14 Carolina discussion....
Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45mph. The system will likely not strengthen much more before it reaches the Big Bend area of Florida Saturday.
Friday was another warm day around the area with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, all is quiet around here in the weather department with a partly cloudy sky and lows in the mid 60s.
Saturday will be a different type of day than we have seen recently. Tropical Storm Barry will gradually cross the Florida Peninsula. Well ahead of Barry, lots of clouds will spread our way, and I think the sky becomes mostly cloudy rather early in the day Saturday. Because of the clouds, highs should only be in the lower 80s. A few isolated afternoon shower or storms will be possible, but I think most of us remain dry during the daylight hours Saturday.
The rest of the weekend forecast is entirely dependent on the exact track of Barry. As it stands now, I expect some rain to spread across much of the area from the south Saturday night and continue through a good chunk of Sunday. How much rain??? Impossible to tell at this point. Let's just keep our fingers crossed we do get at least some much-needed rain. The lightest amounts of rain will be over western parts of the area with the heaviest amounts over eastern sections.
If you have beach plans this weekend at the Grand Strand all of the way up through the Outer Banks, expect rain and thunderstorms to arrive later tomorrow and last into at least Sunday morning. Winds will become rather breezy by Saturday night and Sunday morning....some gusts to 60mph are possible. Some dangerous rip currents will be possible as well. Conditions will be much better at the beaches by Monday.
It looks like big-time heat will build in here by the end of next work week....highs in the mid 90s with lows lucky to drop below 70.
Read more...Thursday Afternoon
>> Thursday, May 31, 2007
Warm weather continues this afternoon and will continue tomorrow as well. There have been some showers and storms in the mountains, but they should mainly stay west of the Charlotte and Triad regions this evening. I do think a few isolated afternoon storms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially in the Triad, but the rain chance in any one spot is small.
We are continuing to watch development in the southern Gulf and Yucatan Channel. I still think some sort of tropical-type system will develop over the next 24-48 hours. As for eventual track, the NAM continues to paint the western-most solution taking the low into the western Carolinas. That solution gives the Charlotte and Triad regions a soaking rain Sunday. However, most other modelling is farther east with the track.
I reserve the right to change this outlook if/when a possible center develops, but as of now, I still like the idea of a track very close to the Carolina coast Sunday. If that is correct, expect wet and breezy conditions at the beach Saturday night through Sunday night as well as rip currents and some high surf. If the coastal track is correct, we would only see scattered showers and storms around here Sunday.
Stay tuned.....
Tropical Thoughts...
>> Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Most modelling has at least somewhat consistently shown some sort of tropical development in the southern or eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days now...some modelling as long a a week or so ago.
I am a bit constrained by time, but here are some thoughs as of mid-afternoon Wednesday. I do think some sort of tropical system or low will form around the Yucatan Channel or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. That system should get picked up by a trough digging toward the eastern U.S. and turn the system northeastward. Some modelling, most recently the 12z Canadian and 0z GFS, have brought the system up toward the Florida panhandle and then up into the central or western Carolinas. Most other modelling has carried the system off of the coast.
At this point, I am leaning toward the eastern solutions. If the system did carry up off of the Carolina coast, then we would see little to no rain from that system here in the Piedmont. However, if the western solutions are correct, then we could be in for a soaker this weekend. If you have beach plans this weekend, at this point I would say expect some rain and breezy conditions later Saturday and Sunday.
The prospect of this becoming a major tropical system are low, but I do think this has a chance to possibly organize into a named system.
Lots of folks in the Southeast are in serious need of some rainfall, and there is no way everyone will get some needed rainfall out of this. However, this system does have the potential to deliver some much-needed rainfall to parts of the region.
Tropical Action??
It sure looks like some sort of tropical system will try to develop in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean over the next couple of days. I have some thoughts on this, and I will post them later today as time allows. Putting together graphics and such for my midday Charlotte live block right now....
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