Nice Weekend Ahead

I think most of the News 14 Carolina staff is still catching our breath mentally after all of the action yesterday. Really, it has been pretty busy around here since the New Year....we have covered several big live events, and of course, we have had a few relatively minor winter weather events....but the way we cover them, lots of manpower and hours are required for those. So, a nice quiet evening and weekend ahead is a much-welcomed thing.

Also, today is Kris Cook's final day at News 14 Carolina. Kris is truly a gifted videographer who really knows how to tell a story in pictures. He will be missed. And, as many of you know, Kate Barker's final day was a couple of weeks ago. She is extremely talented and quite good at her craft, and her bright and smiling face is certainly noticeably missing from the halls nowadays.

And, what a tragedy down in Florida. As of the last I have seen, 19 fatalities in the storms. Some of the damage photos I have seen are horrific....truly a sad situation. I do not yet know all of the circumstances involved with these storms, but this is why I tell anyone who will listen to please have a NOAA weather radio in your home. Every home needs to have one.

Well, everyone have a great evening. Lots of cold weather on the way for sure. Winter weather fans....outside of the mountains, quiet conditions for the next 6 or 7 days. Our next big system will roll through sometime next weekend, but frankly, I have not evaluated that one much yet. When storm systems are rolling through our area, I always tend to primarily focus on the one at hand, so less of my attention gets cast on the "next" event. So, I am still in a little bit of a mental catch-up mode, forecasting wise, after our event yesterday.

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Quick 2:45pm Update....

Things are winding down. Most spots in the Charlotte region got a nice little shot of snow with this event. Up in the Triad region, some snow fell, but it was generally lighter.

Significant icing is not going to be a problem this afternoon and tonight. Temps are generally above freezing, and should primarily remain that way through the night.

One possible exception is the Virginia border counties in the Triad viewing area. There could be some additional rather minor ice accumulation overnight with the second wave of precip in that area.

Thanks so much for reading...the hit count for the blog has been huge the past couple of days. Thanks!

If time allows, I post a little later on why I believe the icing situation we were concerned about never materialized.

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Snow

Snow has been falling for an hour or so across much of the area. Most temps are in the lower 30s.

We will probably see a few hours of primarily snow this morning.

The dewpoints have risen significantly, as expected, as the snow has moved in and the temps really haven't dropped quite as much as I thought. But either way, temps are below freezing, and we wil monitor the temps closely thoughout the day.

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Quick 11:15pm Update...

I have been scanning around all of the latest data this evening, and I think all systems are a 'go' for a signifitant winter weather event for much of the Charlotte and Triad News 14 Carolina regions.

The radar presentation of the developing precip over the Deep South looks quite healthy as of this typing and the temps and dewpoints around here are behaving generally as expected.

Some modelling, such as the 0z NAM model, has treneded a little colder for the event tomorrow, possibly making the duration of snow longer before a changeover to freezing rain. A lot of normally trustworth modelling (Stormcast, MM5) want to switch Charlotte over to plain rain early Thursday afternoon, but I just can't buy that scenario right now. I really think temps in Charlotte will have a very difficult time getting above freezing tomorrow.

So, for the Charlotte region, roughly from Charlotte north and west, I expect several hours of snow tomorrow morning. Accumulations of 2-3" seem very possible, with some locally higher amounts being possible if we see some periods of heavy snow. I still think we switch over to freezing rain at some point, and at least 0.25" of ice still look possible...maybe more.

In the Triad region, I think 3-4", possibly more, of snow look likely at this point, followed by a glazing of ice.

In both regions, travel will become difficult as tomorrow unfolds, and there is still the potential for some power outages.

For now, it is off to bed for me....I will post more as time allows.

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Thursday Winter Event

Winter Storm Warnings are going to be hoisted for all of the Charlotte and most of the Triad News 14 Carolina viewing areas. Per the conference call with both of the GSP and RAH NWS offices, here is their thinking, and I am in agreement on most points...

• For the Charlotte metro, look for snow to arrive close to daybreak. Several hours of snow are then possible
• Later in the day, a switch to freezing rain occurs. Temperatures are going to have a hard time getting above freezing from Charlotte north and west.
• The NWS is mentioning 1-2" of snow being possible with 0.25" - 0.50" of ice accumulation possible.
• For the Triad, the NWS is calling for much of the same as above, except for 2-3" of snow followed by 0.25" - 3/8" of ice. Many Triad counties will likely not get above freezing tomorrow.

Bottom line is this. Travel will become a problem in many places as tomorrow unfolds. It is a tough call for area schools because there will likely not be any road problems at 6 or 7 in the morning. However, road conditions will likely deteriorate after that.

Power outages look possible, so you need to make preparations to that end to be on the safe side.
News 14 Carolina will be fully staffed and ready to roll for this event. We will have full weather staffing on hand to walk with you through Thursday's weather. Stay tuned, and we will keep you up to date....

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Major Winter Weather Threat

Obviously, we have a good chance at some significant wintry weather in the Carolinas Thursday into Thursday night. I am back in the saddle this AM, and I am pouring through all of the data at the moment. I am the midday meteorologist for both the Charlotte and the Triad News 14 Carolina markets today. I will have more information posted here on the blog later today after I get all of my forecasting and on-air dutues squared away. Stay tuned....

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Mountain Snow

I have enjoyed watching the cameras up in the High Country tonight...some realy heavy snow coming down in some spots.

Check out this camera from the Beech Mountain area..

http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_Beech_Charlies.htm

I will be out of town until Tuesday night, so unfortunately, that means no blog updates from me until late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Keep checking with News 14 Carolina for any potential wintry weather with our Thursday system. The other fine mets on staff will continue to hone in that forecast for you. I will be back on air Wednesday.

Have a great week, and God bless...

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Cold is the operative word

Arctic air is plunging into the Carolinas this evening. Up in the mountains, upslope snows will continue tonight with sub-zero wind chill values at times. In fact, here a little before 6:00 the temp is already down to 10 degrees at the summit of Sugar Mountain.

Here in the Piedmont, temperatures are dropping rapidly this evening, and we will drop all of the way down into the upper teens to lower 20s for lows tonight. No snow here tonight....just a mostly clear sky.

In spite of a lot of sunshine Monday, I think the mercury struggles to make it to 40 degrees in most places. So, you will need the warm clothes throughout the day tomorrow.

We are in a pattern that will feature frequent re-enforcing shots of arctic air, and the next one will arrive by Tuesday night. Almost every high and low temperature around here for the next 10 days to two weeks will be below average. I still think the coldest air we have seen in quite some time could arrive next weekend.

Over the next 10 days, I see two opportunities for storm systems around here. One will likely be Thursday and Thursday night, and the other will likely be sometime around February 5.

The details are still impossible to nail down with our next system Thursday, but I am getting a little more confident that at least some wintry weather will be involved around the Carolinas. I just can't get any more specific than that at the moment, but it certainly bears watching.

Everyone stay warm!

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