>> Saturday, January 31, 2009

I have several family commitments that I am in the middle of today, so not much time right now. However, I wanted to put a quick post up.

Overall, things just don't look good for a big storm system. It does not appear as though the upper levels of the atmosphere are going to cooperate in a fashion that will allow for a big-time system.

With that said, I won't completely rule out the possibility of a stronger system, I just don't think it is likely as of now.

To say the details of how things will unfold Monday through early Wednesday are up in the air would be a gross understatement.

Generally speaking, we will have two 'systems' move around Monday night, and another 24 hours or so later. Both of them now look pretty moisture-starved, but either one of them could produce some flakes in the Southeast.

It is possible that some folks could wind up with some minor snow accumulations with either one of those systems, however, I just think the chance of major accumulation is very small, outside of some good upslope potential in the mountains.

That is how things look now. I have not yet seen the new 12z is due out about 30 minutes after I am typing this post. However, the overall modeling trend has been toward a solution I described above.

I will keep taking a look at things over the rest of the weekend and will post any thoughts as time allows and data requires.

Enjoy your weekend, and thanks so much for reading and stopping by!



>> Friday, January 30, 2009

Remember that scene in the first Jurassic Park movie where Samuel L. Jackson switches off all of the power to the park in order to reset everything that was not working properly? When he flips the power back on, nothing comes back on as it was supposed to. His response, "Um....."

That's about how I feel right now.

As of now, the UKMET, Canadian, and the Japanese models are still showing the type of scenario unfolding that I had envisioned. However, the European and GFS have trended weaker and farther east with each of the past few runs. In fact, the GFS is giving the western Piedmont very little precip at all the past couple of runs.

There are a couple of reasons why this is happening, including the tilt of the upper level trough as well as any phasing of the system occurring much later than on runs from yesterday.

The GFS and Euro are also picking up on a second little storm system behind the 'main' one Monday night...this is also impacting their solutions.

So, in my opinion, we are in a holding pattern tonight. The disturbance responsible for the storm will be in the North American observation network with the 0z runs tonight, and if not certainly by the 12z runs tomorrow. That should add some clatiry to the situation.

So, I think the best course of action is to take a step back and re-evaluate things tomorrow.

I am not a flip-flopper, and I will not change my forecast on every little whim and change of a model. I am going to leave my ideas as-is tonight, but like I mentioned, some revisions might have to be made as we head through the weekend.


Quiet weekend....watching next week...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots of graphics to show you in there....give it a watch.

Today through the weekend will be quiet weather-wise. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 40s for most with low to mid 20s tonight. Sunday we warm into the 50s. It will be a little breezy this afternoon, but outside of that, not a whole lot to talk about until Monday.

Most of the computer models shifted eastward with their overnight runs today with the track of our low pressure area Monday into Tuesday. Taken at face value, a few models give a decent little snow to the western Piedmont.

I don't think the track of this low is settled, and in fact, I would not be surprised if we saw this track get adjusted back westward a bit in future model runs.

So, my thinking is really unchanged at this point. I think the Piedmont will see some rain move in later Monday into Monday night, and a changeover to some snow is possible Monday night into Tuesday morning in the western Piedmont. Some snow showers would still be possible Tuesday.

At this point, I am not feeling that this will be a major event for the Piedmont. Can somebody see some accumulating snow? Certainly. But those details are still up in the air.

I do think the mountains will pick up some good snow out of this, both from the low pressure area, and then from lots of upslope snows Tuesday and even into Wednesday.

Behind the system, it will get cold, and I think we could see some sub-freezing high temps for the middle of next week.


Quiet through the weekend...all eyes on next week

>> Thursday, January 29, 2009

Please see the weather video above....lots of good info in there today.

Docile weather will unfold today with some high clouds and highs near 50. Another shot of chilly air arrives tomorrow with highs in the 40s tomorrow and Saturday. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s Saturday morning.

All eyes in the weather community are on what will likely be a very significant storm system to impact the eastern US next Monday and Tuesday. Please see the video above for lots of good information.

All modeling is showing this system rapidly deepening as it lifts up toward the Northeast US Tuesday, and this will almost certainly a one of the stronger storm systems in a while. The exact weather we see in the Carolinas will greatly depend on the track of the low pressure area.

Let's run down the modeling...again, see the video for all of the graphics with this.

0z, 6z GFS - the furthest east of the models. Takes the low up through coastal sections of the Carolinas.

0z Euro, 0z Canadian - the furthest west of the models. Take the low close to the mountains.

0z UKMET - middle of the road solution. Track looks to be through the Piedmont.

Any of these solutions could be correct. I think the westward trend in the modeling that we saw yesterday is likely over, and in fact, I actually wouldn't be shocked to see the Euro and Canadian shift a little eastward. The GFS is probably a bit too far east....the low pressure should be stronger as it impact the Carolinas that what it is indicating as of the 6z run this morning.

My thinking....right now, it looks like rain will spread into the Piedmont later Monday into Monday night. As the low deepens, colder air rushes into and behind it, and the Carolinas could wind up seeing a decent amount of wrap-around, backlash snows by Tuesday morning.

Most times, we don't get anything significant out of these backlash snows. However, most of the models are very bullish on the amount of precip behind the main low due to powerful upper level dynamics, so I would certainly not rule anything out.

And, remember, the track of the low is key. If the low rides up the mountains, we would see mainly rain in the Piedmont. However, if the low were to wind up tracking up the coast, much more significant snows would then be possible.

This will turn into a raging blizzard somewhere in the Apps up into the the Northeast or Ohio Valley. And, snow is likely in northern Mississippi and Alabama as well.

That is how things look now. Remember, we are still 4+ days away, and lots can change. Stay tuned....

Behind the system, a big blast of cold air should settle in with highs in the 30s mid-week and lows in the teens....maybe even some single digits in the colder spots.


Rain pushes through today...

>> Wednesday, January 28, 2009

LOTS to talk about today...see the Carolina Weather Video above.

A wide-stretching storm system continues to really impact the eastern US today. This has indeed been a crippling ice storm from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. Big snows are occurring today in portion of the Great Lakes region into most of the Northeast. Continue to expect big travel delays today.

Around here, the wedge held firm overnight, and temps at 6am were in the mid 30s to lower 40s in most Piedmont locations. Drizzle and fog are the big weather stories around here this morning.
The wedge will slowly try to erode away this morning, but it might not completely scour out in the northwest Piedmont. Depending on the wedge scrouring process, highs should be from the mid 50s to lower 60s this afternoon.

We will see generally light rain this morning, and then right behind a cold front a band of showers will swing through this afternoon, ending this evening.

The sky will clear out overnight, and tomorrow looks good with lots of sun and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

A re-enforcing shot of cold air arrives Friday, and the weekend looks sunny and cool. I can't rule out a snow flake or a sprinkle Friday afternoon, but chances look low.

I continue to be pretty interested in the Monday into Tuesday time frame next week. A lot of modeling is now on board with the general scenario of an area of low pressure forming in the Gulf and lifting up through the eastern Carolinas or just off the coast, deepening as it does so.

WAY too early for specifics, but there is certainly the chance of some snow in the western Carolinas during that period if current modeling is remotely correct.

Of course, a lot of factors are in play, and this thing could trend into an all rain event or it could wind up not phasing, meaning little precip at all. Stay tuned....


Rain chances at times through tomorrow...

>> Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Lots of good stuff in today's video....give it a look above.

A big-time winter storm is impacting a good deal of the country this morning. A crippling ice storm is taking place from northern Arkansas and southeast Missouri up into northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky. North of the area of ice, a major snow event is unfolding from the Ohio Valley spreading into the New England and northern Mid-Atlantic states later today into tomorrow.

For us, we will see only rain chances with this system. A passing shower is possible at any point today, tonight, and tomorrow. However, the most widespread rain chances will likely occur tomorrow afternoon as a cold front drops through the region.

Thursday will be dry, but a pocket of energy aloft will pivot overhead Friday, and some passing snow showers or rain showers can't be ruled out. The weekend looks cool and dry.

There is some chance of another storm system around Monday. The Canadian model popped a nice low near the Carolina coast later Monday, but most other modeling is dry. We will keep an eye to see if further trends indicate a higher chance of a storm system to start next work week.


Wintry weather off to our north and west...

>> Monday, January 26, 2009

I hope everyone had a good weekend. Our weekend was pretty good. I was able to take my middle daughter, Grace, out Saturday evening for some dinner and then to a hockey game....we had a blast.

After church yesterday, I did something I haven't done in probably 15 or more years.....I played kickball. A bunch of kids of folks in our Sunday School class have been playing after church, and myself and a couple of other dads joined them yesterday. Fun stuff....

I have been battling some sinus issues the past couple of days, and it seems to be getting a more significant hold of me this morning. Nothing major as of yet, but I am trying to fight it off with some Mucinex.

In terms of the weather, we will see a good deal of clouds today with highs in the 40s. Some rain chances will arrive by tomorrow morning, and really, from tomorrow morning through at least Wednesday night, I can't rule out some passing showers at any point in time.

In the northwest Piedmont, a few areas could be at or below 32 degrees when the light rain arrives tomorrow morning, so a brief period of freezing rain will be possible. However, I don't think this will be anything significant.

Yesterday, the GFS was going bananas with an area of low pressure bringing significant precip to the region Friday. This morning, it has that low suppressed way off to our south. Most other modeling keeps us precip free as well. So for this morning's forecast package, I have kept Friday 'mostly cloudy,' but I do not have any precip mentioned.

A shot of chillier air moves in Friday into Saturday, and right now the weekend looks dry.


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