Quiet weekend....watching next week...

>> Friday, January 30, 2009



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots of graphics to show you in there....give it a watch.

Today through the weekend will be quiet weather-wise. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 40s for most with low to mid 20s tonight. Sunday we warm into the 50s. It will be a little breezy this afternoon, but outside of that, not a whole lot to talk about until Monday.

Most of the computer models shifted eastward with their overnight runs today with the track of our low pressure area Monday into Tuesday. Taken at face value, a few models give a decent little snow to the western Piedmont.

I don't think the track of this low is settled, and in fact, I would not be surprised if we saw this track get adjusted back westward a bit in future model runs.

So, my thinking is really unchanged at this point. I think the Piedmont will see some rain move in later Monday into Monday night, and a changeover to some snow is possible Monday night into Tuesday morning in the western Piedmont. Some snow showers would still be possible Tuesday.

At this point, I am not feeling that this will be a major event for the Piedmont. Can somebody see some accumulating snow? Certainly. But those details are still up in the air.

I do think the mountains will pick up some good snow out of this, both from the low pressure area, and then from lots of upslope snows Tuesday and even into Wednesday.

Behind the system, it will get cold, and I think we could see some sub-freezing high temps for the middle of next week.

14 comments:

GERALD 8:01 AM  

Matthew,

One thing is for sure.. I cant do any worse with this storm than i did with the last one. I haven't even had a trace of snow so far this year in Mt. Airy...

HERE'S HOPING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW

David G 8:48 AM  

Matthew,

Do you think there will be any comparison with this storm next week and the "superstorm" of March 93'? I keep hearing how powerful this storm might be. It seems like they may take similar tracks, and have similar stength, if this storm bombs out as it moves up the coast.

I remember that the 93' storm started as rain and changed over to snow with blizzard conditions for several hours. Would love to see that again. What are your thought? Thanks

Matthew East 9:04 AM  

I hear ya Gerald....maybe you can get something.

David, the only real comparison I see with this storm and March of '93 is the potential track. I don't think this storm will even be in the same ballpark in terms of intensity, especially this far south. That storm isn't called "The storm of the century" for nothing.

That was an amazing storm for so many. That type of event will happen again sometime, but this is probably not it.

Now, with that said, some folks could see blizzard conditions with it in the mountains of the Virginias northward into portions of the Northeast.

Anonymous 11:27 AM  

matthew,

the gfs always loses the storm for a day or 2 and then it comes back. this just shows us its acting "normal" lol i think this event will end up playing out and that some people will be pleasantly suprised :)

Anonymous 12:05 PM  

whats the 12z canadian showing matthew?

Matthew East 12:09 PM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Matthew East 12:11 PM  

Yeah, the GFS being off to the southeast for a couple of runs, on its own, would not be concerning. However, if other models follow suit....

12z Canadian shows a nice hit of snow for the western Carolinas.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

Look at hour 84 of the 12z run.

Anonymous 12:16 PM  

so taken verbatim, that would be all snow falling in the piedmont right?

ya the gfs is the one thats common with a northwesterly trend though right?

that being said i believe it will trend back nw and the other models will possibly shift a tad more east

im thinking this storm tracks into the ne gulf crosses the fl panhandle and hugs just inside the coast up the eastern seaboard...seems the way things are shaping up

Anonymous 12:34 PM  

Yay Canada!! How about some snow eyy? Let's go play some hockey in the snow ey? What do you think Matt.......ey?

Brad

Anonymous 1:49 PM  

Matthew

I am wondering compared to other models how reliable is 12z Canadian ?? also if the 12z Canadian is right how much snow could we get in Charlotte?

Anonymous 1:59 PM  

what are your thoughts on a possible colder storm system with this matthew? ive been hearing that alot from other sources

Anonymous 2:15 PM  

matthew,

correct me if im wrong, but isnt it good if the gfs is trending a little too far south and east a few days out since usually it likes to trend north and west??

junior weather man 3:38 PM  

Matt,
what are your thoughts on cleveland county getting some accumulatiung snow??
Thanks

Anonymous 4:37 PM  

So is this ruling out Chapel Hill, then?

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