Saturday evening....

Some areas around and just northeast of Memphis have received over a foot of rain since last night. Boat rescues have even had to be performed on the interstate.

The tornadic threat is really ramping up in Arkansas this evening.

Another 'high risk' of severe weather is out for Arkansas. This is the third 'high risk' day from the Storm Prediction Center since last Saturday.

By the way, you can look up my Facebook Page....just getting cranking with that....lots of weather info and more on there!

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More on the Gulf of Mexico Oil situation...

I spoke again with my buddy Hank Allen, meteorologist at WGNO-TV in New Orleans, about the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster. Here are some of his thoughts today....

I asked him first about the seemingly conflicting reports about the exact location of the oil, and you can read where his comments went from there...

"The way I understand it there has been oil that has been spotted along the coast of some of the barrier islands. Now in terms of a mainland "landfall" that hasn't happened yet and may not til tonight or tomorrow. Course the issue with the continual onshore flow is the seas are getting bigger . . . 5-7 feet by tomorrow so I'm not sure if the booms are going to work. Some of this stuff is going to go right over the top. You also have the situation where Sunday we could get some severe weather . . . so obviously that means rough seas and will probably prohibit any additional cleanup efforts Sunday and maybe even into Monday as it looks like the front may hang up and give us coastal storms on Monday.

"A friend asked me this morning if this is worse than the Exxon Valdez. My answer would be yes. And possibly by a lot. With that situation you had a known quantity of oil and it got contained. Here you have a limitless amount of oil leaking into the gulf until this thing gets plugged. How much comes out will be the question. The other factor here is the number of species that live along the coast in this area. Anything from otters, mink, dolphins, whales, turtles, birds to fish. Also this is where most of the country's seafood comes from in terms of oysters and shrimp. Just a tremendous impact on many different areas of life in this area. Just think the worst natural and ecological disasters this country has ever seen both happened right here."

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Warming trend continues....

After 70s for highs yesterday, most of us will wind up in the 80s today with abundant sunshine. Humidity levels will remain on the low side as well.

Big thunderstorms will erupt today along and just ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. The highest severe weather probabilities today will be in the Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks. That front will eventually move through here....likely on Monday.

Over the weekend, it will get much muggier around the Carolinas as a broad southwesterly flow brings in Gulf of Mexico moisture. Due to the increase in moisture, I will maintain the risk of a few isolated showers or storms on Saturday and Sunday afternoon. However, the chance of rain each weekend day in any one locations is quite small. Highs this weekend will warm into the mid to upper 80s.

So, for the big Quail Hollow Championship, I can't rule out an isolated shower or storm drifting near the course over the weekend, but I don't anticipate any long-term delays.

As the previously-mentioned cold front moves in Monday, I do anticipate widespread showers and storms, and a few showers and storms could linger into Tuesday as well.

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Robert's post.....

If you are heading out to Quail Hollow this week the weather looks almost ideal through Saturday. As I will be heading out there Tomorrow morning, I look forward to 80s, sunshine, and following Freddie Couples. Late afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday with a better chance of some delays on the final day Sunday. Will see if Padriag can turn it around and if Tiger can handle the public gallery.

I will shift my focus to the Gulf of Mexico where last weeks platform explosion and has led to a pretty extensive oil leak. The BP owned oil platform “ Deep-water Horizon” which exploded and sank last week is currently spewing around 5,000 barrels a day, a number quite higher than previously thought. The Platform is located about 50 miles off the Louisianan coast neighboring with what biologist call the “Fertile Crescent” of the Gulf of Mexico. The past few day winds had shifted from the north and the oil slick was being pushed away from the coast. However, Today will bring about strong Southeasterly winds that will remain for a few days, adding to fears of a coastal environmental disaster.

The coast guard had planned to light the oil slick yesterday evening to increase chances of collecting the oil from the spill. After combustion and burning of the oil, the residue left behind is a thicker tar like substance that is easier for collecting with netting. If the oil spill continues to go unstopped it has the potential of affecting the fertile crescent of marine and terrestrial based wildlife. This is substantially worsened by the timing since many organism are in the peak of their mating season.

Weather wise the burning of the oil slick will lead to an increase of sulfate base aerosols in the lower stratosphere which can affect cloud growth and development as well as an increase in acidic rain fall.

We should expect the political theater around off shore drilling to increase in the next few weeks after this spill coincides with Obama's recent interest in increased offshore drilling. It should also be noted that currently BP is responsible for footing the bill with the recovery and handling of this oil spill with of course the help of the US Coast guard and other government agencies.

Robert Elvington

robert.elvington@gmail.com

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Gulf Oil Issues....

For those of you that have been following the story, you know that an oil rig explosion in the northern Gulf of Mexico has caused and is causing some major environmental problems. And the problems unfortunately might only get worse for a while.

All efforts are being made to contain this spill and get rid of it, but it is far from an easy task, and serious environmental consequences might occur.

I spoke to my buddy Hank Allen, a meteorologist at WGNO-TV in New Orleans, LA. Here is a quick email he shared with me about the issue.

"Basically strong southeast flow the next couple of days and then southerly (will drive the oil slick closer to the coast). The issue with the burning is the lesser of 2 evils. They think it's better to have the air pollution than the water and coastal issues. The problem comes in that even once they burn it off there is still going to be some left over. You're still going to have a tar like substance. I'm fairly confident some of this will make it to the coast. Right now they are setting up booms to try to corral it as best as possible. A special shrimp season has been opened to allow the harvest of as many shrimp as possible before the oil gets into the area. However the oyster beds could be in trouble and of course all the wildlife areas could be affected depending on how much gets in there. Plus you have the wetland restoration efforts that will obviously be hindered."

I have Robert Elvington writing a piece on this today that I will have posted later in the day....stay tuned....

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Getting warmer....

After a chilly, and in some spots, frosty start, we will see a warmer afternoon today than yesterday. Highs will warm up into the mid 70s for most this afternoon with a sunny sky. Terrific day.

It will not be as chilly tonight with lows near 50.

We will keep the warming trend going tomorrow. Highs will warm into the low to mid 80s, and we will again see lots of sunshine.

Muggier air will flow in here this weekend, and that means I will have to introduce the chance of a few afternoon showers and storms into the forecast. The weekend will not at all be a wash-out, but I do think some scattered afternoon showers or storms are possible both weekend days. The coverage of showers and storms will likely get greater the farther west you go in the region.

Severe weather and flooding will be possible this weekend in the Mississippi Valley close to a slow-moving cold front. That front will lowly drop in here by later Monday or Tuesday, and at that point, we should wind up with a good coverage of showers and storms around here.

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Beautiful afternoon...

We don't have many more days left prior to next fall where we have struggled to finally hit 60 degrees at 1pm in full sunshine. Just a beautiful, clear, crisp airmass out there....a couple of shots around the yard just a second ago....

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Sunshine returns....

After having showers and some storms roll through the region yesterday, we are now back in a quiet weather pattern for a few days. Each day today through Friday will feature lots of sunshine, and each day will get a little warmer than the previous one.

Highs today will be in the 60s. Tonight will be fairly chilly again with a clear sky overhead and lows dropping to around 40 degrees....certainly some upper 30s possible in traditionally colder spots. That means I can't rule out a little patchy frost.

Sunshine continues tomorrow and Friday. Highs tomorrow will be in the 70s with low to mid 80s by Friday.

More humid air will flow in here over the upcoming weekend, and eventually, our next storm system will crawl close enough to us to bring some showers and storms. I have kept the Saturday forecast dry, although there is a chance of a few PM showers or storms mainly west of I-85. Highs will be well up into the 80s.

Better chances of some showers and storms look to roll in here Sunday and especially Monday. However, the specifics of this portion of the forecast are still a little tough to nail down.

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Some afternoon showers and storms today....

A strong upper level disturbance is rolling our way, and that disturbance will likely be enough to crank out some showers around the region this afternoon and early this evening. A few storms could be involved as well, and I can't rule out some gusty winds or small hail with any storms that fire. Highs today will be in the 60s.

The sky will quickly clear tonight, and cooler air will settle in with lows in the lower 40s tomorrow morning.

The weather looks very quiet for us tomorrow through Friday with a sunny sky and highs getting a bit warmer each day. Look for 60s tomorrow, 70s Thursday, then lower 80s by Friday.

A muggier and warmer airmass will arrive this weekend with highs up into the 80s and lows in the 60s. At some point over the weekend, shower and storm chances will return. For this morning's forecast package, I have removed the rain and storm chances from Saturday's forecast and included it in Sunday through Tuesday's forecast.

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A few showers/ storms possible

In today's video, a look back at a tragic weather weekend, plus what is in store for the new week....



After a tragic weather weekend across the eastern US, we will ease back toward quieter weather with time this work week. However, a couple of disturbances will roll our way over the next 48 hours and bring the chance of a few showers or storms.

Today will be quite breezy with winds gusting over 30mph at times out of the west-southwest. As the first disturbance approaches, a few isolated showers or storms are possible this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s.

Tomorrow, a stronger disturbance will move in, and I will forecast scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon with highs in the 60s.

The weather looks quite nice Wednesday through Friday with lots of sunshine and highs getting a bit warmer each day.

Conditions look to get unsettled again next weekend into early next week as another storm system slowly approaches from the west.

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Sunday...

Turned out to be a tragic severe weather day across the Deep South yesterday, especially in Mississippi where a number of people lost their lives from a major, long-tracked tornado. Storm surveys will be conducted today.
Around the Carolinas, we will have the chance of some scattered showers and storms at times today, but the chance should gradually end from west to east as the day unfolds and drier air begins to move in.

A few storms could wind up strong to severe today, and I would imagine the greatest chances of that occurring would be along and east of I-95. However, if storms fire early enough in the day, I can't rule it out for the I-85 corridor.

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