Cold stuff this morning for sure. A good number of locations dipped to or below the freezing mark. The Charlotte airport bottomed out at 32...that is a new record low for today. The old record was 34.

Great daytime weather today and tomorrow with lots of sun and highs in the 60s. Another cold one is on the way tonight, and again I expect low to mid 30s. A widespread frost is again likely, and obviously, some folks should see a light freeze again.

Bring a coat if you are heading to the Bank of America 500 this evening...temps will drop into the 40s by the end of the race.

This is a great weekend to head up to the mountains and enjoy the fall foliage. There will be lots of sun today and tomorrow with highs mainly in the 50s.

Speaking of fall foliage, here is another photo from an overlook along the Blue Ridge Parkway earlier this week.

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Freeze Tonight??

As tarheelhombre pointed out in a comment below, temps are running much cooler early this afternoon that the models had forecasted. Most spots are sturggling through the 50s as I type this. This could lead to colder low temperatures tonight than originally thought. I went with a low of 35 for Charlotte with my morning forecast package, and I now think that might be too high. I now think a few spots could even see a light freeze tonight. The record low of 34 in Charlotte definitely appears as if it will be threatened tonight. Stay warm....

Here is another statement out of the Buffalo NWS....truly amazing stuff...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

NYZ001-002-010-011-130830-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

..HISTORIC SNOWFALL FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER

A MAJOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM DELIVERED A KNOCKOUT
PUNCH TO PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM SET RECORDS FOR SNOWFALL SO
EARLY IN THE SEASON AND ALSO PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS THE
AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WAS NEVER MORE THAN ABOUT 15 MILES
IN WIDTH, IT SET UP ACROSS THE MOST HEAVILY POPULATED STRETCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK, INCLUDING THE CITY OF BUFFALO, AS WELL AS NEARBY
SUBURBS LIKE TONAWANDA AND AMHERST IN ERIE COUNTY AND NORTH
TONAWANDA IN NIAGARA COUNTY.

THERE WERE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THAT CAME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SERIOUS
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALIGNED THEMSELVES ALONG
THE GREATEST LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE. AS THE COLD WINDS CROSSED THE 62
DEGREE LAKE, LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WERE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE TEMPERATURE A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
COOLED JUST ENOUGH TO TURN RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS REMAINED OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION FOR ABOUT A 14
HOUR PERIOD KEEPING THE SNOWBAND NEARLY STATIONARY OF THE SAME
LOCATION. FINALLY, BECAUSE THE TREES IN THE REGION STILL HAD MOST OF
THEIR LEAVES, THE HEAVY WET SNOW WEIGHED THE BRANCHES DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.  TREE LIMBS CAME DOWN ON POWER
LINES AND RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. LATEST ESTIMATES
SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 300,000 PEOPLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WERE
WITHOUT POWER.

THE GREATEST SNOWFALL OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF NIAGARA COUNTY WHERE 22 TO 24 INCHES FELL.
AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT THE STORM TOTAL WAS 22.6 INCHES, MAKING THIS
THE 6TH GREATEST 24 HOUR SNOWFALL ON RECORD. A NEW RECORD WAS SET
TODAY, OCTOBER 13TH FOR THE GREATEST ONE DAY SNOWFALL IN OCTOBER,
WITH 14 INCHES.

OTHER SNOWFALL TOTALS INCLUDE:
..ERIE COUNTY
    INCHES
DEPEW                 24.0
BUFFALO AIRPORT       22.6 
ALDEN                 19.0
CLARENCE              18.0
SOUTH BUFFALO          9.0
EAST AURORA            4.5

..GENESEE COUNTY

DARIEN CENTER         16.0
ELBA                   5.0

..NIAGARA COUNTY

AMHERST               20.0
N.TONAWANDA           12.0
SOUTH LOCKPORT         8.0
NORTH LOCKPORT         5.0

..ORLEANS COUNTY

ALBION                 6.0

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, IN ITS WAKE, STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES.  ANY TREE LIMBS THAT WERE
CRACKED OR WEAKENED BY THE HEAVY SNOW COULD STILL COME DOWN DUE TO
THE WINDS. THE PUBLIC IS URGED TO BE VERY CAREFUL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN WALKING NEAR TREES AND POWER LINES.

FINALLY, THE WATER IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWPACK IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN
THE RANGE OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES.  AS THE WATER IS RELEASED DUE TO
MELTING, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE.  FOR THAT REASON,
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ERIE, GENESEE, NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

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Cold stuff....

The reports out of Buffalo are amazing....snow totals are near two feet in and near the city now. Below my portion of this post is another statement out of the Buffalo NWS office...

Around here, sunshine will break out today and highs will only ease up toward the mid 60s. But the big story is tonight. I think we are heading down to the mid 30s for lows, and that should be cold enough for a frost across a good bit of the viewing area. The record low tomorrow in Charlotte is 34, and I think we could challenge that tonight.

Now, one fly in the ointment of getting frost tonight is this....dewpoint depressions. What I mean is that we will likely see dewpoints sag into the upper 20s tonight. You need to wind up having the temperature and dewpoint pretty close together to get frost to form, so we could see some folks being cold enough for frost but the low level airmass too dry for frost. We shall see. At any rate, you will want to protect tender vegetation you have tonight due to the frost possibilities.

Weekend weather is great with lots of sun and highs in the mid to upper 60s. It will be another cold night tomorrow night with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Time for another photo. This is from atop Mt. Jefferson Tuesday morning. Below is the town of Jefferson, NC along Highway 221 up in Ashe county.

And, here is the statement I was referring to out of the NWS in Buffalo...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
650 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

NYZ001-002-010-011-085-131400-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
650 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

..SNOWBAND BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD

A MAJOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM CONTINUES TO HAMMER
THE REGION AROUND BUFFALO NEW YORK THROUGH WHAT IS NORMALLY THE
EARLY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

AT 630AM A 15 MILE WIDE BAND OF SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE EXTENDED ACROSS
NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES....SOUTHERN NIAGARA COUNTY AND
ALL OF ORLEANS COUNTY. THE BAND WAS SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY
DRIFT TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.

THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS AN AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CITY OF BUFFALO THROUGH NIAGARA FALLS
AND EAST TO MEDINA IN ORLEANS COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THIS AREA BEFORE THE BAND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND DRIFTS NORTH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER THIS MORNING. THE
BAND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE
SNOW BAND, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY ON THE EDGES
OF THE BAND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

DRIVING BANS EXIST IN MANY COMMUNITIES. IN ADDITION, IN AREAS
WHERE POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED, DO NOT WALK AROUND OUTSIDE
UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. YOU COULD CONTACT DOWNED POWER LINES
AND RISK ELECTROCUTION. 

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Record Buffalo Snow

Pretty incredible stuff up in Buffalo, NY. An impressive lake-effect snowstorm has piled up some incredible snow amounts. This is the earliest lake-effect snow storm on record in Buffalo. This is from the Buffalo NWS.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

..SNOWIEST DAYS ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER

THE UNPRECEDENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM THAT CONTINUED ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH THE WEE MORNING HOURS PRODUCED SOME
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL TOTALS. 

RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS FOR SNOWFALL AT
BUFFALO.

ON THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12, THE BUFFALO AIRPORT RECORDED 8.3 INCHES OF
SNOW, BREAKING THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR DAILY SNOWFALL IN OCTOBER,
WHICH WAS 6 INCHES LAST SET ON OCTOBER 31, 1917.

THURSDAY'S RECORD DID NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER. THROUGH 5AM FOR FRIDAY,
OCTOBER 13, BUFFALO RECORDED 10.9 INCHES OF SNOW, SETTING A NEW MARK
FOR THE SNOWIEST DAY IN OCTOBER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN BACK IN 1870.

THE CULPRIT FOR THIS RECORD SNOW IS THE EARLIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
STORM ON RECORD TO HIT THE CITY OF BUFFALO. 

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More Fall Foliage Photos...

One more mild day today before the colder air arrives tonight. Highs only in the mid 60s tomorrow and Saturday with lows in the mid to upper 30s Saturday and Sunday mornings. I still think some spots will see a frost this weekend.

By the way, up in the mountains, elevations above 3000' have a chance at seeing a bit of light snow late tonight into tomorrow morning....a sure sign the cold season is getting close.



This photo is from the Julian Price Memorial Park off of the Blue Ridge Parkway Tuesday morning.



This photo is from the New River State Park up in Ashe County Monday morning.


This photo is from one of the Blue Ridge Parkway overlooks up close to the Virginia border in North Carolina Monday morning.

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Fall Foliage 2006

I was fortunate enough to be able to spend some time with my wife up in the mountains earlier this week. I will be sharing some of the photos we took here in this space over the next few days.

Here is a photo from along the Blue Ridge Parkway south of Blowing Rock heading toward Grandfather Mountain Tuesday morning.


The foliage above the Linn Cove Viaduct Tuesday morning.



The Linn Cove Viaduct Tuesday morning.

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Our viewing area is directly in the the ideal zone to see occasional rain today. We are right on the north side of a strong upper level low, and a fetch of Atlantic moisture continues to feed right into the southern Piedmont.

So, the forecast today highlights the chances for occasional rain. Bring the rain gear to the Panthers game...don't think it will rain all game, but it probably will during at least part of the game.

Improvement arrives tomorrow along with a warming trend. Highs will approach 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. But when, a huge upper air trough slides in here from the west. As the associated cold front moves through Thursday, we will see some showers and storms, and some storms could be severe. This dynamic storm system has a chance to produce a lot of tornadoes in locations off to our west, such as the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. But even here, some storms could be strong to severe Thursday, and we will watch it closely.

The models are not in agreement with exactly how deep that trough will be over the eastern U.S. However, I feel pretty confident that we will see 30s for lows next weekend, and I think we have a strong chance of seeing our first frost of the season next weekend as well.

I will be out of town for a couple of days. We are heading up to the mountains to enjoy some of the fall foliage over the next couple of days, but I will be back here in the saddle again Wednesday. Everyone have a great Sunday!

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