Freeze Tonight??

As tarheelhombre pointed out in a comment below, temps are running much cooler early this afternoon that the models had forecasted. Most spots are sturggling through the 50s as I type this. This could lead to colder low temperatures tonight than originally thought. I went with a low of 35 for Charlotte with my morning forecast package, and I now think that might be too high. I now think a few spots could even see a light freeze tonight. The record low of 34 in Charlotte definitely appears as if it will be threatened tonight. Stay warm....

Here is another statement out of the Buffalo NWS....truly amazing stuff...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

NYZ001-002-010-011-130830-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006

..HISTORIC SNOWFALL FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER

A MAJOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM DELIVERED A KNOCKOUT
PUNCH TO PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM SET RECORDS FOR SNOWFALL SO
EARLY IN THE SEASON AND ALSO PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS THE
AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WAS NEVER MORE THAN ABOUT 15 MILES
IN WIDTH, IT SET UP ACROSS THE MOST HEAVILY POPULATED STRETCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK, INCLUDING THE CITY OF BUFFALO, AS WELL AS NEARBY
SUBURBS LIKE TONAWANDA AND AMHERST IN ERIE COUNTY AND NORTH
TONAWANDA IN NIAGARA COUNTY.

THERE WERE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THAT CAME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SERIOUS
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALIGNED THEMSELVES ALONG
THE GREATEST LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE. AS THE COLD WINDS CROSSED THE 62
DEGREE LAKE, LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WERE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE TEMPERATURE A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
COOLED JUST ENOUGH TO TURN RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS REMAINED OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION FOR ABOUT A 14
HOUR PERIOD KEEPING THE SNOWBAND NEARLY STATIONARY OF THE SAME
LOCATION. FINALLY, BECAUSE THE TREES IN THE REGION STILL HAD MOST OF
THEIR LEAVES, THE HEAVY WET SNOW WEIGHED THE BRANCHES DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.  TREE LIMBS CAME DOWN ON POWER
LINES AND RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. LATEST ESTIMATES
SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 300,000 PEOPLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WERE
WITHOUT POWER.

THE GREATEST SNOWFALL OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF NIAGARA COUNTY WHERE 22 TO 24 INCHES FELL.
AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT THE STORM TOTAL WAS 22.6 INCHES, MAKING THIS
THE 6TH GREATEST 24 HOUR SNOWFALL ON RECORD. A NEW RECORD WAS SET
TODAY, OCTOBER 13TH FOR THE GREATEST ONE DAY SNOWFALL IN OCTOBER,
WITH 14 INCHES.

OTHER SNOWFALL TOTALS INCLUDE:
..ERIE COUNTY
    INCHES
DEPEW                 24.0
BUFFALO AIRPORT       22.6 
ALDEN                 19.0
CLARENCE              18.0
SOUTH BUFFALO          9.0
EAST AURORA            4.5

..GENESEE COUNTY

DARIEN CENTER         16.0
ELBA                   5.0

..NIAGARA COUNTY

AMHERST               20.0
N.TONAWANDA           12.0
SOUTH LOCKPORT         8.0
NORTH LOCKPORT         5.0

..ORLEANS COUNTY

ALBION                 6.0

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, IN ITS WAKE, STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES.  ANY TREE LIMBS THAT WERE
CRACKED OR WEAKENED BY THE HEAVY SNOW COULD STILL COME DOWN DUE TO
THE WINDS. THE PUBLIC IS URGED TO BE VERY CAREFUL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN WALKING NEAR TREES AND POWER LINES.

FINALLY, THE WATER IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWPACK IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN
THE RANGE OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES.  AS THE WATER IS RELEASED DUE TO
MELTING, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE.  FOR THAT REASON,
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ERIE, GENESEE, NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.