Warm start to April.....

From Robert Elvington...

Now that yesterdays system has passed through we can expect average to below average temperatures for the next few days. Next week will remain quiet with only a small chance of rain into Tuesday evening with highs in the 70s.

Yesterday's event unfolded mostly how we forecasted with multicell storms and a few embedded supercells. We did though, as the afternoon progressed, advected in higher than expected helicity values, prompting SPC to issue a tornado watch. However, going by storm reports North Carolina only saw high wind reports with a few tornado warnings issued by the weather service.

In conjunction with the weather service and North Carolina Climate Center we received report that this was the warmest first week of April on record. With an average mean temperature for the 7 day period at 70.7 beating out 1967 with 69.4. Apparently this phenomenon of a hot spell after a cold winter is nothing new. I have a attached a link that explains the Global pattern of the past few months.

Click here...

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

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Excellent weekend weather....

Be sure and take a look at today's video...a few neat radar shots from yesterday's severe weather, plus a look at some terrific weather ahead....



After rough and tumble weather across the region yesterday evening, including a number of wind damage reports, quiet weather is returning today. A much cooler airmass is now here, and highs today will only be in the 60s despite sunshine.

Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s in many Piedmont locations, and I can't rule out there being a little patchy frost in a few spots. So, if you have some tender vegetation, you might want to consider covering it up tonight just to be on the safe side. But be sure and uncover them early tomorrow!

Sunshine will be with us all weekend with highs in the upper 60s tomorrow and mid 70s Sunday. Fantastic!

Next week look primarily dry, but with most highs in the 70s, it will remain pretty comfortable.

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Severe threat this evening...

Looks like the potential for severe weather will be with us this evening. A large portion of the Charlotte metro region is under a tornado watch, and it looks like we have the right mixture of helicity (turning of the winds with height) and instability to promote a threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. See the two charts above.....top chart shows helicity and bottom chart shows CAPE.

Stay with News 14 Carolina on Time Warner Cable for all of the very latest.

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Robert's post....

Thunderstorms this Afternoon through early night time. Expect temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with clouds increasing as we go throughout the day.

Today's storm outbreak will not in any way be similar to the outbreak we saw two Sundays ago. This afternoon anywhere from 2:00 to 11:00 pm we should see a line of storms along the cold front passage. In this situation we have an elongated trough axis with the center of the axis well to our north into the upper Ohio valley. Due to the orientation and location of the axis we will be short on the helicity amounts (given the straight line hodograph) decreasing our chances of tornadoes to near zero. However, our 0-6 km shear will be reaching values to allow for multicell storms to a few isolated supercells to form. This time of the year when we have these types of storms you can almost always expect wind and hail to be our biggest players.

CAPE values could reach into the lower 1000s, high level clouds should not limit diurnal heating but low to mid level inhibition should limit most storms until the early evening hours.

Though the line may slow or break up along the Appalachians expect the line to reform and strengthen as it encounters lee troughing and forcing from the short wave.

Discussing with Matthew East we think that most likely we will see a severe thunderstorm watch box mid to late afternoon, given SPC's slight chance. If the line sets up we should see severe thunderstorm warnings up and down the line with long forewarning time.

As for the Masters a bulk or majority of the players should be able to get their first round in with just a few players including Tiger (1:42 tee time) having their back 9 affected by thunder or rain. This year I am going with Tim Clark as my pick to win the Masters. He tends to play well at Augusta with a second place finish in 2006. He actually has never won a PGA tour event but holds the most top 10 finishes(35) without ever winning a tour event. Also he is a NC State grad so I had to pick him.

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

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Some severe weather possible today....

An end to our very warm pattern is at hand as a cold front approaches from the west. We will see showers and storms roll into the Carolinas as today unfolds, and for the Charlotte and Triad zones, the main window of opportunity for showers and storms will be from roughly mid-afternoon into this evening. For I-95 and points east, this activity will mainly be tonight.

I envision this being a scenario where we see a band, or broken band, of showers and storms roll through. Some storms will likely wind up being strong to severe, and while I can't completely rule out any mode of severe weather, I believe damaging winds will be our primary threat.

Hopefully most folks can manage a decent soaking to aid in the pollen. Some of the highest pollen counts in the short recording history of pollen levels have been recorded over the past few days. The reason for the extremely high pollen levels is a combination of the very warm weather and the lack of rain thus far in April. Normally, we see rain every few days this time of year, and that cleanses us of the pollen. That has not happened this year.

A wonderful, refreshing stretch of weather is on tap tomorrow through the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s tomorrow, upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday, and then mid 70s or so Sunday, all with lots of sun. That will be nice!

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Weather changes knocking on our door....

Many folks around our region saw a high yesterday near 90 degrees. Today, it will still be very warm with mid to upper 80s in most Piedmont locations. We will continue to see lots of sunshine, and it will be a bit breezy this afternoon.

However, changes are on the way. A cold front will move in here late tomorrow, and along with it will come some showers and storms from late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Some storms could wind up producing some damaging winds, and we will watch that. It appears many spots will wind up with at least a half inch of rain....that will be good to knock back the tremendous amounts of tree pollen we have around.

Terrific weather then arrives for Friday and the weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s in many Piedmont locations with 70s Sunday. All days will feature lots of sunshine. Lows will drop into the 30s in many spots Saturday and Sunday morning.

The weather stays quiet and generally sunny as we head through the first half of next work week as well.

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Summertime in April....

Downright hot today....and a special audio appearance by Johnny Cash on today's video for the occasion....



Highs yesterday were in the mid to upper 80s....today, I think many of us hit 90. A lot of record highs will likely be tied or broken around the region on a day that will feel more like June or July than early April. We did have a few strong storms yesterday early in the evening, but not today...only hazy sunshine.

Sunny and quite warm again tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Changes are coming though. I expect showers and storms to roll in with a cold front late Thursday into Thursday night. A few strong to severe storms will be possible as well.

Behind that front, a nice, cooler, refreshing airmass will roll in. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s with lots of sun with 70s and sun Sunday and Monday. Some 30s are possible for lows over the weekend as well.

Don't look now, but there are signs that our old friend, the upper level ridge, will return again around mid-month...that would mean more very warm temps if it occurs.

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Near-record warmth again....

I hope everyone had a wonderful Easter.

Near-record warmth back with us today and tomorrow. See the video for details....



After nice weather over the Easter weekend, we will return to near-record warmth the next couple of days. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s. A weakening cold front is falling apart to our north today, but it is close enough that I will mention a very small chance for an isolated late day shower or storm. However, I expect the vast majority of the area to remain dry.

Tomorrow will be very warm with highs approaching 90 around the region.

Today's record highs....
Greensboro:87
Charlotte:88
Raleigh:88

Tuesday's record highs...
Greensboro:89
Charlotte:90
Raleigh:93

Wednesday will still be warm and dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s. However, the pattern changes later this week, and we will see a stronger cold front drop in here by late Thursday and Thursday night. Look for some showers and storms with the frontal passage, and then I anticipate cooler temps Friday into the weekend. Right now, it looks like 60s for highs Friday and maybe Saturday with 70s again Sunday and Monday. All of those days will feature lots of sunshine.

Down the road, there are growing signs of a very warm pattern returning to the eastern US....

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Happy Easter!

Have a safe and blessed Easter!

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