Saturday Evening Post....

Quiet weather out there this evening. Sunday's weather will be much the same as what we saw today. Weather looks just fine for the Panthers game tomorrow afternoon.

Wedge still looks to set up by Monday, and it now appears it will stick around through Wednesday. I still like the idea of most highs in the 70s Monday through Wednesday as well as a relatively rainy Wednesday.

Florence
I am sitting around as I am typing this waiting for the 11pm NHC advisory so it can get on the air overnight. The inner structure of Florence broke down a bit Saturday afternoon, but it still looks like to become a hurricane by tomorrow. In fact, it stands a decent chance of becoming a Category 2 hurricane before it reaches Bermuda Monday if it can get that inner structure lined up.

Enjoying the football....flipping backand forth between the Texas-Ohio State game and the Georgia-South Carolina game. Looks like Florida State just took the lead over Troy with under 2:00 left in the game....amazing. And, I am ready for all of the NFL action tomorrow. Should be a lot of fun!

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Second day in a row I am in the early morning shift. I never can go to bed early....my body just is not programmed that way. So, when I am doing these early morning shifts, I am lucky to get in bed by 11:00 or 11:30. Then the alarm clock goes off at 2:20am....ouch. However, I always lie down in the afternoons and take a nice nap with the kids on days like today, and that will certainly be happening this afternoon. Last night, even though I was tired, I had to stay up and watch the end of the Dolphins-Steelers game...unfortunately, I fell asleep on the late in the 4th quarter. Oh well....

Today, we could see a few passing showers from time to time, but I am not optimistic about any substantial rains falling around the area. The weekend will be a bit warmer with mainly mid 80s for highs.

Interesting pattern early next work week. Cold air damming, or a wedge, is showing up very clearly on most modeling for Monday into Tuesday. Here is the 6z GFS surface depiction for 8pm Monday evening...



That wedge will likely keep our highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday, and if the GFS is correct, look for occasional light rain or drizzle Monday as well.

Cold front will move through mid-week, and I am mentioning good chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Florence...
The satellite appearance of Florence is improved this morning, but so far the winds have not responded. That is likely due to the size of the system. Florence is a huge system in diameter, and it takes large systems longer to "spin up" than it does smaller systems.

Florence should become a hurricane tomorrow, and it looks almost certain that it will make that turn to the north and miss the US east coast. However, it is looking more and more likely that Florence will have a big impact on Bermuda by Monday.

Everyone have a great weekend. Enjoy all of the football. College football is in full swing, and the NFL regular season is now underway. Can you tell I love football???

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Well, back in the office today. Yesterday was a day of various doctor's appointment for members of my family, so there was no time to put up a post.

Anyway, Florence has indeed survived its battle with shear discussed below. It is still battling shear, but that should relax a good deal over the next 24-48 hours. If all goes the way it appears now, I think Florence has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane by something this weekend.

The computer models are in amazing agreement that Florence will re-curve before reaching the US coast.



This forecast track is due to an approaching trough picking up Florence and turning it out to sea. We will see how things to develop, but it is too early in the game for people along the US east coast to let their guard down. Stay tuned...

Around here, lower dewpoints are filtering in this afternoon, and we will enjoy comfortable weather in general for at least the next week or so. Looks like we are definitely continuing the step-down from the warm weather season to the cold weather season.

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TD 6 Struggling

I tell ya....TD 6 is not looking healthy right now. It is being dramatically affected by shear from a big trough over the northern Atlantic Ocean. That trough will lift out by mid-week.

I see two options here. First option: the shear basically tears TD 6 completely apart and the system dissipates. Second option: the system continues to battle the shear, and survives until that trough lifts out and the environment improves.

At this point, it honestly looks like about a 50/50 shot. If you were to force me to, I would tell you that I certainly am no longer bullish about the prospects for TD 6.

However, even if TD 6 doesn't survive, there is a strong tropical wave located between it and the African coast. It appears the overall prospects of that system developing are a little better.

Around here, there are some scattered storms this afternoon. The heaviest rainfall amounts so far in our viewing area have been in Cleveland County.

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TD 6 Discussion

Tropical Depression 6 formed this afternoon roughly midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. As far as newly-formed tropical depressions go, it looks fairly healthy. Looking at Dvorak intensity estimates from satellite data, the system looks to contain roughly the same winds as it had when the NHC prepared the 5pm advisory. So, I doubt the NHC will upgrade the system to a tropical storm with the 11pm advisory this evening. However, the overall environmental conditions are not overly hostile, so I think we will see TD 6 become Tropical Storm Florence by the end of Labor Day.

The system is heading to the northwest at the present time. That is because a large trough over the northern Atlantic Ocean is influencing the system. See picture below...

That trough will lift out, and its influence over the tropical system should end by Tuesday. At that point, the motion of TD 6 should bend back more toward the west as a large high builds over the system to the north. That largely westward motion should continue for the rest of the week.

TD 6 will likely be fairly close to the eastern US coast by the 11th or 12th. It could get turned out to sea at that point, or it could threaten the eastern US. Too soon to tell, but we will watch it closely. Stay tuned...

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TD 6 now formed....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


I will post my initial thoughts on the system later this evening....

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TD 6 Soon to Form

Per the NHC in their 11am discussion...

"THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON."

This is the tropical wave I discussed on the air yesterday. Most computer models strengthen the system and move is generally west-northwestward for the next 5-7 days.....

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