Well, back in the office today. Yesterday was a day of various doctor's appointment for members of my family, so there was no time to put up a post.

Anyway, Florence has indeed survived its battle with shear discussed below. It is still battling shear, but that should relax a good deal over the next 24-48 hours. If all goes the way it appears now, I think Florence has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane by something this weekend.

The computer models are in amazing agreement that Florence will re-curve before reaching the US coast.



This forecast track is due to an approaching trough picking up Florence and turning it out to sea. We will see how things to develop, but it is too early in the game for people along the US east coast to let their guard down. Stay tuned...

Around here, lower dewpoints are filtering in this afternoon, and we will enjoy comfortable weather in general for at least the next week or so. Looks like we are definitely continuing the step-down from the warm weather season to the cold weather season.