TD 6 Discussion

Tropical Depression 6 formed this afternoon roughly midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. As far as newly-formed tropical depressions go, it looks fairly healthy. Looking at Dvorak intensity estimates from satellite data, the system looks to contain roughly the same winds as it had when the NHC prepared the 5pm advisory. So, I doubt the NHC will upgrade the system to a tropical storm with the 11pm advisory this evening. However, the overall environmental conditions are not overly hostile, so I think we will see TD 6 become Tropical Storm Florence by the end of Labor Day.

The system is heading to the northwest at the present time. That is because a large trough over the northern Atlantic Ocean is influencing the system. See picture below...

That trough will lift out, and its influence over the tropical system should end by Tuesday. At that point, the motion of TD 6 should bend back more toward the west as a large high builds over the system to the north. That largely westward motion should continue for the rest of the week.

TD 6 will likely be fairly close to the eastern US coast by the 11th or 12th. It could get turned out to sea at that point, or it could threaten the eastern US. Too soon to tell, but we will watch it closely. Stay tuned...