Midday...

Had enough snow with sleet mixed in to dust the ground in much of the I-85 corridor in Cleveland, Gaston, and into Meck county and the surrounding areas. Radar doesn't look terribly promising for anything north and west of I-85 in the Triad, and frankly, the precip looks to be pretty short lived in the Triad viewing area where it does occur.

Watch the radars....this event will wind down from west to east, and that will be about it for this event. Doesn't look like there is much opportunity for any further development after the current wave. So, folks that saw something....enjoy! Folks that didn't....let's look for the next one.

Read more...

Saturday Morning....

Good morning! Wanted to put up a quick post about what remains a pretty low-confidence forecast.

It looks like a good portion of the region will see at least light precip move through at some point today. The total amounts of precip with this one look pretty low overall until you get down into central and eastern SC and eastern and SE NC.

For the Charlotte area, looks like I am just going to have to go with the wording of a light wintry mix today....the mix being rain, sleet, and snow. A lot of the precip types will depend on precip rates. Temps are tricky....the area is in the 30s now, and I question exactly how much warming can take place.

This evening, there could be a final push of some light to moderate snow pivot through the region, and I suppose some places could pick up some minor accumulations.

For the Triad, same general idea, although there might be less rain in the equation. There is a little better chance of picking up some small accumulations in this area, especially as we head into later this afternoon/ evening.

The winter weather advisory for the Triangle put out by the Raleigh NWS is probably placed well. I still suppose the Triangle area has the highest potential of picking up some accumulations with this.

Also note there is the potential for a short-fused winter weather advisory to be popped out about anywhere around the region as we see how the precip shield will develop.

**Just laying the cards all out on the table here....this is about as low a confidence forecast as I have put out in recent memory. I have very little confidence on where the heaviest precip areas will set up, not to mention what the exact thermal profile will be. When you are dealing with a degree or so difference at 3,000 to 5,000 feet in elevation determining precip types, and in situations like these, the rate of precip plays a big role, saying it is a challenge is an understatement. But I guess that is what makes it fun. This system has been a booger from the word 'go.'

With all of that said, this is not a huge winter storm, and many people will not see any type of accumulation at all. But it sure is fun to watch.

Read more...

Friday afternoon...

The 12z models have not shown any more amplification with the weekend system....in fact, some show less.

I will continue with the same ideas I had on air this morning. Please see the map in the previous post below. The best chance of seeing some flakes lies between I-85 and I-95 starting northeast of Charlotte, and the best chance of seeing accumulations is from around the Triangle up into southeastern VA.

It just appears the system will not amplify enough to spread precip back into the foothills or much of the western Piedmont.

Again, see the map below for the best zone of seeing a few flakes tomorrow evening.

Standard disclaimer....there is always the chance of a last-minute northwest trend. However, I saw no indication of that as of the 12z models.

**The 18z NAM has come in with a more amplified system and QPF pulled farther west. Then again, it is the 18z NAM. We will see what 0z holds tonight.**

Read more...

Potential weekend system....

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. . .



Through about 9am or so, icy roads will remain a possibility, generally along and north of the I-40 corridor. This is from the re-freezing of water on the roads from yesterday's wintry precip.

Highs will top out in the 40s today with a partly sunny sky.

Weekend system...

After the trend with the 12z models yesterday was toward a stronger, more amplified system, the trend with most of the 0z and 6z data was toward a weaker, slower-phasing system, and therefore, a more easterly track.

You can see the map below I am going with on the air this morning. As it stands now, I think the best opportunity in NC of seeing snow is roughly between I-85 and I-95....with the best chances being around the Triangle up into eastern VA.

Now this is still subject to change as we are still 24-36 hours out, but this is how I see it as of now. If the system were to phase more quickly, then places west of I-85 could get into the action. However, that has not been the trend on the modeling over the last 12 hours.



Christmas week....

We stay on the chilly side of things next week. We will not be as cold overall as this week, but temps will remain below average.

A clipper will move through mid-week, and then another will arrive around Christmas. We will see what the precip chances are as we get into next week.

Read more...

Late-morning...

The winter weather event continues to wind down around the region. Freezing rain was the biggest issue in NC, and roads became very treacherous, especially Hwy 64 and points north.

Temps will slowly climb above freezing this afternoon, so road conditions will gradually improve.

The latest NAM has inched the Sat/ Sat night system westward a bit. I will take a long look at that one in the products tomorrow.

Lots of live weather....time for a nap!

Read more...

Winter weather this morning...

A wintry mix is occurring around the region this morning. I am live on the air for the Triad market....Matt Morano is handlign Charlotte, and Lee Ringer is in the Triangle. Our operation is in full swing this morning bringing you tons of live weather, traffic, closing information, and reports in the field.

The teeth of the system will move through between now and late morning, and this is when precip will be at its heaviest.

For the Charlotte area, a mix of sleet and freezing rain/ drizzle with be with us until around mid-morning. Most temps should then get above freezing, and the afternoon and evening will then feature the chance of some drizzle from time to time. A glazing of sleet and freezing rain will remain a possibility. Road conditions will be tricky, especially on the secondary roads and overpasses.

For the Triad, snow and sleet will continue to change to mainly freezing rain this morning. A glazing will continue to occur on most surfaces. This afternoon, temps will get above freezing and road conditions will readily improve.

Read more...

Wed PM update...

I am focusing on our system tonight and tomorrow. The picture for the weekend potential system will get clearer once this current system passes and the responsible disturbance gets on the RAOB network.

Winter Weather Advisories are our for GSO, CLT, the Triad, and Triangle. Winter Storm Warnings have been hoisted up in VA down into Surry county and the NW NC mountains.

The latest NAM did shift the axis of heaviest precip south 30-50 miles. There have not been any huge changes on the WRF or the regional Canadian.

Here are my thoughts as of this afternoon.

A quick-hitting shot of sleet and snow will develop into much of the Upstate and Piedmont after midnight tonight. Some accumulations are possible, but south of I-40, it will probably be pretty minor. A dusting....maybe an inch in a few spots in the southern Piedmont. Maybe one or two spots with a little more, especially the farther north you go.

In the southern Piedmont, any remaining precip should transition to sleet and rain or freezing rain as the morning unfolds, and a glazing is possible in some areas.

For the CLT region, this is not a huge winter storm. However, I still think the potential is there for some road issues to develop. Ground and road conditions are quite cold, and it only takes a tiny amount of mixed precip to cause sizable road issues....just ask the folks in Mississippi and Alabama today.

Farther north, from roughly I-40 up to near the VA border....I expect front-end snow to transition to some freezing rain in time tomorrow. By the morning rush, there could very well be an inch or two of snow and sleet on the ground in many Triad locations. A glazing is then possible on top of that. I fully anticipate the possibility of some travel issues by the morning commute in many Triad locations.

Near the VA border and on up into VA, this will likely be where the meat of the storm rolls through. In that area, I would not be at all surprised to hear of some localized 4" or even 5" reports.

That's it for now. I will be in the wx office dark and early in the AM. Get up a little early and check the weather, road, and closure situations in the morning.

Read more...

Winter weather chances....

Here is today's edition of the video. I encourage you to watch it...sometimes pictures are worth tons of words....

First off....wow, another bitterly cold morning. 10s everywhere and even some single digits in a few Piedmont locations. It will stay cold today with Piedmont highs in the 30s.

Next system...
Our next system will begin to arrive later tonight. Winter Weather Advisories are up from northern Mississippi and Alabama into the Ohio Valley. A Winter Storm Warning is up for eastern KY and NE TN. A Winter Storm Watch is up for much of VA down into the VA border counties of NC and up into the northwest mountains.
For the Carolinas, precip will spread into the I-85 corridor during the pre-dawn hours. This initial wave of precip will likely be some light snow and sleet for many. From south to north, and precip will kick over to a sleet and then freezing rain or rain scenario, depending on the surface temp in your back yard.
For the Charlotte region (and extreme northern SC), I can't rule out a brief dusting or a light, minor glazing early tomorrow. The precip just looks too limited for anything overly significant however. But, it is possible a few issues could drop up for the morning commute. Ground and road temps are cold, so it would only take a little freezing rain to create some issues.

For the Triad, there will likely be a period of snow and sleet that will gradually transition to some light freezing rain or rain. For the immediate I-40 corridor, I will go with a dusting to maybe 2" or snow and sleet with the possibility of a minor glazing before the precip ends.
More significant accumulations are likely up near the VA border and up into VA. For the VA border counties, I will go with 1"-3" with locally higher amounts....and again, a glazing possible on top of that.

**Hear this.....it is quite possible that the amounts will verify on the lower ends of those ranges given. Moisture is limited and the air is dry, so that will be an issue for precip to overcome.**

Here is the bottom line. This is not a huge event, but it could definitely play a role in the morning commute tomorrow, especially the farther north you go. So get up early, check the road and weather conditions, and of course, we will be like with updated information here on News 14 Carolina.

Here is the map I am using on air this morning....

Saturday/Saturday night...

The trend in the modeling over the past couple of cycles has been toward a weaker, less amplified system. With that said, there is still the potential for some snow in parts of the region. I will continue to take a closer look at this one as we near the weekend.

Read more...

Tuesday afternoon....

Just a quick check-in. Seems most modeling is trying to shift that axis of heaviest precipitation Thursday AM to the areas along and north of I-40. That is not set in stone, but the trend for this system today has been for most of any potential issues to be confined to the northern half of NC. But, this is a fine line in terms of where this axis of precip spreads in, so I wouldn't write off any specific area just yet. Remember, it was just the 0z NAM today that brought a nice little event to much of the region. Just watching the trends today though....

For the weekend, I still think the potential for this one is very much alive. The GFS continues to indicate a significant system, but there are temp issues for snow fans in the southern Piedmont. The Canadian is weaker and farther east.

The latest Euro is very, very close to developing the system into a biggie. But it keeps the upper level energy a little too strung out, and therefore keeps the system as more of a weak wave of low pressure as opposed to a bomb going off. However, gut feeling on this one is that it trends into a more significant system somewhere in the region. Might wind up being the Virginias that see most of the snow if it winds up really bombing out. However, at this point, I think everybody is still in the game on that one, and all options (from the weak wave, farther east scenario to the strong, deepening low, farther west scenario) are still on the table.

Read more...

Really impressive cold....

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a look.



This blast of arctic air is very impressive. Highs today will be at least 20 degrees below normal again across most of the region, and many Piedmont spots will again fail to reach freezing. In fact, the Triad region will likely not make it out of the 20s. All of this will full sunshine today.

Lows tonight will again be in the teens. So keep those faucets dripping and the outside pipes wrapped.

Next system...

The NAM (one of the shorter-range models) continues to bounce around where the heaviest axis of precip will be with the next system late Wednesday night through Thursday. This lowers my confidence.

As it stands now, I will still mention a light wintry mix being possible across the Piedmont from very early Thursday morning until late morning or midday....any precip after that would try to fall in the form of light rain or drizzle in many places.

Will this be a huge deal? Probably not. But wherever that axis of heavier precip does impact, some accumulation is possible. Where is still the question.

Weekend system?

The potential for a storm system around Saturday is still very much on the table. However, the models continue to show a high degree of variability in their handling of this system. The GFS is still the most impressive with it while the Euro is still a little out to sea and weaker.

If the GFS is correct, parts of the region could see a rain changing to snow scenario Saturday and Saturday night. But I am far from confident at this point.

Read more...

Frigid...

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...



First of all, I want to thank my buddy Andy Wood for putting up some great content here on the blog while I was away. Interesting stuff. Andy is a meteorologist at the Fox station in Greenville-Spartanburg, and you can read his stuff anytime at the Fox Carolina Weather Blog.

Bundle up.....we are in the grips of another huge blast of true arctic air. We had some light snow pinwheel through yesterday evening, and it was enough to whiten the ground in some spots. However, the cold is the big story.

This is impressive cold, and some Piedmont spots will not see temps above freezing again until Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will struggle to make it into the low to mid 30s, and many spots will do good to see lower 30s tomorrow. It will remain blustery, especially today, with winds gusting to 30 or 35mph.

Overnight lows will dip into the dangerously cold category. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the teens across the Piedmont. When you factor in the wind tomorrow morning, we will be looking at single digit wind chill values.

Next system...

Our next storm system will roll through Wednesday night into Thursday. Now, this does not look to produce huge amounts of precip, however, there is enough there to catch your attention. The airmass across the region, at least initially, will be cold enough to produce a wintry mix with some spots possibly kicking over to rain before the precip ends Thursday.

It is still a bit too early for specifics, but some accumulating wintry precip is possible.

Weekend system???

Various models at various times have produced a big winter storm for parts of the Southeast over the upcoming weekend. However, I have zero confidence in that possibility yet. We are dealing with relatively small-scale features in a fast-moving flow pattern, and any range of possibilities (from cold and dry to significant wintry precip) are on the table. We will see....

Read more...