Tuesday afternoon....

Just a quick check-in. Seems most modeling is trying to shift that axis of heaviest precipitation Thursday AM to the areas along and north of I-40. That is not set in stone, but the trend for this system today has been for most of any potential issues to be confined to the northern half of NC. But, this is a fine line in terms of where this axis of precip spreads in, so I wouldn't write off any specific area just yet. Remember, it was just the 0z NAM today that brought a nice little event to much of the region. Just watching the trends today though....

For the weekend, I still think the potential for this one is very much alive. The GFS continues to indicate a significant system, but there are temp issues for snow fans in the southern Piedmont. The Canadian is weaker and farther east.

The latest Euro is very, very close to developing the system into a biggie. But it keeps the upper level energy a little too strung out, and therefore keeps the system as more of a weak wave of low pressure as opposed to a bomb going off. However, gut feeling on this one is that it trends into a more significant system somewhere in the region. Might wind up being the Virginias that see most of the snow if it winds up really bombing out. However, at this point, I think everybody is still in the game on that one, and all options (from the weak wave, farther east scenario to the strong, deepening low, farther west scenario) are still on the table.