Active storm track this week...

>> Monday, December 31, 2012

Quiet weather today as we end 2012, but the first system to affect us this week will move in tomorrow. That system will provide us with some chilly rain at times for New Year's Day with highs in the 40s in many spots. Rain amount look to be under a half inch for most places.

The next system will likely spread some chilly rain in Thursday. Although I can't totally rule out a little bit of wintry precip on the northern fringe of the system, I am not overly impressed at the moment.

A third potential system could move through Friday night or Saturday morning. The -0z GFS did not have the system, while it was there on the European (very weak overall) as well as the UKMET (stronger).

See the video for much more....

Read more...

Active storm track...

>> Monday, December 24, 2012

Three systems will impact our region this week. Some bullet-points...


- System 1 is moving through today bringing periods of rain. Some spots are picking up a good soaking, and it's a chilly, wet Christmas Eve.

- System 2 will be a dynamic one and bring anything from severe weather to a while Christmas for parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Mississippi Valley.

 
   I am very concerned about the severe weather aspect of this system across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, western Florida, and Georgia later tomorrow. All modes of severe weather look possible, and the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak is there. 


   That system will spread rain into the Carolinas by Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. A severe weather threat will likely develop into the Carolinas by Wednesday, especially along and to the south and east of I-85. How significant that severe weather threat is for the Carolinas will depend on how much instability can creep up our way. 


- System 3 will roll through Saturday. It is actually taking a favorable track for some western Carolina wintry weather, but at the moment, lack of cold air could be a problem for those outside the mountains. 

I hope you all have a wonderful, safe, blessed Christmas. 

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Cold and windy today.... mountain snow...

>> Friday, December 21, 2012

Snow is flying up in the mountains today, and it will be a decent little snow event in the favored northwest facing areas.

Winds are a big factor today...in the mountains, gusts will be over 70 or 80mph at times with piedmont and foothills gusts likely over 40 or even 50mph at times.

It's also cold....piedmont highs will be in the 40s today.

Quiet this weekend, then all eyes turn to next week.

There are still all kinds of question marks with a wide range of tracks possible for the main system Wednesday. I detail this in today's video.... give it a look....

Read more...

Sharp cold front headed in...

>> Thursday, December 20, 2012

A dynamic storm system is cranking in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this morning, and we will have a good round of rain and embedded storms in our region this afternoon into this evening.

This system is producing heavy snows in parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest and severe weather in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this morning.

The best threat of severe weather in the Carolinas will be closer to the coast, but we will need to keep an eye out for some low-topped stronger storms anywhere across the region this afternoon and evening.

It'll be sharply colder tomorrow with foothill and piedmont highs only in the 40s and a stiff west wind gusting over 30mph at times.

Up in the mountains, some upslope snow will kick in tonight and extend into tomorrow. The favored areas will pick up multiple inches of snow in some instances, and winds could gust to 50mph+ in the mountains tomorrow.

Quiet and cool weather will unfold through the weekend.

Next week...

Still tons of question about our system next week. Please see the video for details...

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Lots to discuss....

>> Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Please see today's video.... A graphic is worth a thousand words, and I have a bunch of them in there!

Some quick hits...

- Beautiful today.... 60s for highs with full sun.

- Sharp cold front brings a round of showers and embedded storms later tomorrow and tomorrow evening. This is a low instability/ high shear environment, so the possibility of low-topped severe storms will need to be watched.

- Much colder Friday....piedmont highs in the 40s with a stiff northwest wind.

- Quiet and cool weekend.

- All sorts of uncertainty with the near-Christmas system. The 0z GFS came in with a wild solution, bombing out a low as it moved right overhead through the Carolinas. This is a big eastward jump from previous runs.

European was also different.

Bottom line is I have zero confidence in the timing or track of that low at the moment. Again, see the video for more....

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Sunshine back today and tomorrow....next system Thursday...

>> Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Some nice weather is on the way today and tomorrow with highs topping 60 in many places.

Our next system will bring a round of showers and storms later Thursday and Thursday night to the region. Following that system, a fairly chilly, but very quiet, weekend will unfold.

Our next system will then begin to take shape in the southern Plains by Christmas morning. This has the look of a Miller B system....in other words, one low could ride up near or west of the mountains while a secondary coastal low might try to form.

The key to this system is the blocking over the Canadian maritimes....how strong it is, and how long it stick around. The European and Canadian models are stronger with the block with the GFS. The stronger the block is, the more pronounced the cold air damming will be around the Carolinas, and therefore, the higher the potential would be for winter weather.

Way, way to early to know how this will unfold. Many in the region will wind up with rain, but in the favored CAD areas, something of a wintry variety can't be ruled out by the day after Christmas. The odds are higher from the Virginias northward.

Please see today's video for more...

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More showers/ storms this afternoon.... a look ahead....

>> Monday, December 17, 2012

Another round of showers, and maybe some storms, will rumble through this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are possible, especially in South Carolina and Georgia. Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the biggest threats.

Take a look at today's video.... I look at our next system Thursday, as well as a likely system just after Christmas.

Read more...

Sunshine today.... some changes in next week's forecast...

>> Friday, December 14, 2012

Full sunshine will be on display for our Friday with highs in the upper 50s in many spots across the region.

Our next cold front will slide in Sunday and bring with it the chance of some showers Sunday and Sunday night. The European and NAM models then develop another wave of low pressure that rides through and gives us more rain chances Monday. The GFS is much drier Monday.

As I cautioned earlier in the week, we could see some big changes with the potential system in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. The upper level pattern remains very chaotic, and it now appears the energy will bundle much farther north and east than some other modeling had indicated. If that scenario is correct, our region winds up dry Tuesday and Wednesday. That appears to be the case as of now.

Longer range...

Things still look to be lining up for a fairly interesting weather pattern for the final 10 days of the month. Another cold front will move through by next Thursday or Friday, and then we will watch for incoming storm systems from the west.

The 0z run of the GFS was fun for snow lovers to look at.....and I showed some panels from that in today's video. Please remember that you can take absolutely no specifics from the longer range modeling. However, I am just showing you that some players are on the field for the possibility of more interesting times later this month.

Here's today's video...

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Sunshine returns.... couple of systems on the horizon...

>> Thursday, December 13, 2012

Please see today's video for an extensive look at what's ahead....

Some highlights...

Sunshine back with us today and tomorrow. Cold night ahead tonight with lows of folks in the 20s.

Cold front will bring some shower chances Sunday with the best rains probably occurring Sunday night into Monday morning.

As expected, the models continue to really struggle to resolve the details of the system Tuesday-Wednesday. In fact, the 6z GFS has totally lost the system as it keeps all of the energy phased way up north. See the video for more.

Bitterly cold air looks to plunge into the Lower 48 later next week into the weekend prior to Christmas. It remains to be seen how far south that cold air makes it, but there could be some fun and games for somebody wherever waves of low pressure try to ride along that front.

Please see the video below...

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Coastal low today...sunshine tomorrow and Friday...

>> Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Waves of rain will develop through Georgia into South Carolina and mainly eastern North Carolina. However, a little rain could make it roughly as far west as I-85 at times today and tonight. It will be a cool day around the region as well.

High pressure builds in and gives us lots of sunshine tomorrow and Friday.

Another front will move in this weekend and generally give some shower chances from Saturday night through Sunday night. The Euro model is much heavier with the rain amounts than the GFS, especially late Sunday and Sunday night.

System next week....

Interesting system to track next week. Let me just say that the pattern is very chaotic with tons of upper level energy moving around the Lower 48. The development of the system next week depends on the spacing and interactions between disturbances to be just right to develop a closed upper air low across the Southeast and then off the mid-Atlantic.

I think the idea of some snow occurring maybe in the mountains of NC and then points north from there could be increasing just a bit in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. But it is still overly, overly early. Anything south and east of there will be tricky at best to get any snow, but we will see.

And, again, let me caution.... if these pieces of upper level energy do not interact as is currently modeled, this system could vanish altogether. Would not surprise me at all.

It's frankly way to early to even mention any areas, even the mountains, as having the chance of snow. But I am just throwing some ideas out there for you.

Please see today's video for more in depth thoughts...

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Cooler temps, coastal low tomorrow, and interesting stuff next week....

>> Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Please take a look at today's video. I discuss at length the interesting possibilities being shown on some modeling next week.....

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Some showers today and tonight... much cooler tomorrow...

>> Monday, December 10, 2012

A sharp cold front is approaching the region today. Ahead of the front, it will be mild again with highs in the 60s and 70s around here. Meanwhile, temps have plunged into the single digits deep down into the Plains states and some snow has flown as far south as Dallas this morning.

The chillier airmass will take hold around here by tomorrow and will then be with us the rest of the week.

A coastal low will form Wednesday and will spread some chilly rains inland. How far inland remains a question mark, but at this point, I am thinking roughly I 85.

And yes, I saw the 0z GFS printing out some snow Monday around the Carolinas. I get into this in the video, but the overall chances of that scenario unfolding are very small.

Here is today's video...

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Mild December weekend.... chaotic pattern ahead...

>> Friday, December 07, 2012

Take a look at today's video... I delve into some thoughts on the pattern as we head deeper into December. It looks pretty chaotic with lots of upper level energy and lots of separate disturbances. However, I do not see any sign of a cold pattern locking into the eastern US anytime soon.

As for the weekend, lots of mild air floods in. However, more typical December temps do look to settle in next week following an early-week cold front...

Again, see the video for much more...

Read more...

Cooler today... mild weekend ahead.... changes next week...

>> Thursday, December 06, 2012

It will be a much cooler day today around the region compared to what we had earlier in the week as cool high pressure wedges in from the northeast. Today will feel more like a typical December day.

However, a very mild December weekend is on the way, and some folks could again top 70 for highs, especially Sunday.

Next week....

We will have a cold front slide through Monday or Monday night and bring some showers and maybe a storm or two. No drought-busting rains here, but the rain amounts look a little better than our previous couple of systems.

Cool sunshine will be with us mid-week next week followed by a more active storm track setting up. It looks like we will head into a period featuring a storm system every few days, which is far different than what we've had recently. The next system could roll through the following Thursday with another one several days later.

Lots of very cold air will flood the northern US, and that cold air will try to bleed southward with time. The upcoming, new pattern does not look like one that will lock any sustained cold into the Southeast. However, it does look like an interesting pattern with the active storm track and the cold air not that far away, at least relative to the upper Southeast.

See today's video for much more...

Read more...

Some light rain in some areas today...

>> Wednesday, December 05, 2012

We will have some spotty showers and light rain at times today as a front moves through. However, the rain will not be anything significant.

Much cooler tomorrow, then milder again this weekend.

The entire weather pattern will be much different by next week, starting with a Monday cold front. Look for a much more active storm track with lots of cold air spilling into the portions of the Lower 48 as well.

See today's video for much more on this...

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Another warm one today.... cold front arrives tomorrow...

>> Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Highs again today will top 70 in many spots around the region. However, a cold front will turn us much chillier, although briefly, later this week. More warmth then returns for the weekend and early next week.

In today's video, I discuss all of that plus take a look at how the mid-month pattern for December is setting up.

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Near record warmth today and tomorrow...

>> Monday, December 03, 2012

Highs will top 70 in many locations around the region today and tomorrow ahead of our next cold front. Enjoy!

The cold front then slides through Wednesday with a brief shower chances, and then it will be sharply colder by Thursday with some Piedmont spots only seeing 40s for highs.

I spend a good deal of time looking an an upcoming pattern change for the second 10 days of this month in today's video....give it a look.

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Warming trend the next several days...

>> Friday, November 30, 2012

Highs will gradually get a little warmer each day through early next work week. In fact, I still thin some of us could hit 70 Monday or Tuesday.

One cold front will then move through by Wednesday. There will be a quick shower chance with that, but unfortunately, probably not a whole lot to get excited about in the rain department.

Following that front, we will ease back into cooler weather by Thursday and Friday.

Another front then looks to arrive sometime the following weekend.

There do look to be some changes in the overall weather pattern by about Dec. 8-10. The big Alaskan vortex is showing signs of at least weakening and moving a bit, which allows for some west coast ridging to come degree. The placement of the ridge winds up a little different on the GFS and the Euro....I show this in today's video.

But the overall idea is that at least some changes in the overall weather pattern look to arrive for the second 10 days of December. It's still too early to tell how long any changes might last....whether a couple of days or something more prolonged.

See the video for more on this....

Read more...

More cool sunshine today...

>> Thursday, November 29, 2012

Again today, highs will be in the 50s under a clear sky. 60s will settle in for our weekend highs, and I still think some spots could hit 70 Monday or Tuesday ahead of our next front.

That next front will swing through by Wednesday and gradually transition us back to a cooler temperature regime. At this point, it looks like the more significant cold air might follow a second front toward the end of next week....see the video for more on this.

Long-range...

I have heard lots of rumblings about blow-torch warmth for December....I just don't really see it. Yes, it will be quite mild this weekend into the first couple of days of next week, but then we will have a couple of cold fronts move through and cool us down.

In looking at the overall indicators I like to look at, no, I do not see any sign of a cold and stormy pattern locking in. However, I also do not see any sign of extended periods of significant warmth as we head toward mid-December.

There has been a persistent trough near Alaska that has kept us from seeing any real sustained cold....and there are signs that we will see that feature at least weaken if not vanish later into December.

But even with that trough having been in place and us having a less than optimal overall setup for Southeast cold, it's been a chilly month of November. Greensboro is -3.9 for the month, Raleigh is -4.6, Charlotte is -2.8, and GSP is -1.6....so it has been pretty chilly overall.

Here's today's video:

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Sunshine returns today...

>> Wednesday, November 28, 2012

After a lot of clouds and some rain around the region yesterday, cool late November sunshine returns today.

We will have a warming trend this weekend into early next work week followed by a mid-week cold front.

In today's video, I take a look at all of that plus share some December thoughts....

Read more...

Some showers today...

>> Tuesday, November 27, 2012

We will have some showers from time to time today as an area of low pressure moves through the region. Unfortunately, the rain will not add up to much....probably a quarter inch at the very most in many places.

Sunshine returns in full force tomorrow with 50s for highs. Look for 60s this weekend, then we could even see some 70s by Monday or Tuesday.

See today's video for all of the details:

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Milder today...some shower chances by late tonight

>> Monday, November 26, 2012

Take a look at today's video. In it, I discuss our incoming storm system and also take a look at December's pattern.

Read more...

Very quiet as we head into Thanksgiving...

>> Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Once east of the Rockies, the weather is about as quiet as can be for this big travel day today. Locally, look for lots of lower 60s for highs.

For Thanksgiving, beautiful around here with sunshine and highs in the 60s. 60s will hang around for one more day on Black Friday.

It will turn sharply colder for Saturday and Sunday.

Take a look at today's video.... I look at these items in greater detail and also take a look at our setup as we head into early December.

Read more...

2012-2013 Winter forecast

>> Friday, November 16, 2012

Well, there were lots of disappointed snow fans across the Southeast last Winter, but a new Winter approaching brings new hope of the white stuff for snow lovers around the region.

Let's delve into a few factors..... first of all, the ENSO cycle.

Conditions through the Winter will likely be ENSO neutral, as the El Nino many expected has simply failed to materialize. You can see on the charts below that most modeling takes values to neutral or even negative by Spring.

IRI/ CPC modeling:


CFS model:
NAO:

The NAO might be the single biggest influencing factor in the temperature regime around here. There is no magic bullet, but the NAO definitely plays a huge role. Last year, a mainly +NAO led to a warm Winter overall in our part of the country. The previous Winter, the NAO remained in the negative state for much for the time, equating to an overall cold Winter.

What about this Winter? Well, over the past several months, the NAO has tended to be negative more often that not. I also like to look at how the NAO and AO behave during the month of October. You will notice that this October, we had a -NAO for much for the month.

This can make or break a Winter Outlook, but my thinking at the moment is that we will continue to tend to see a -NAO through the Winter, more often than not. If that is the case, that will mean ridging and blocking around Greenland, colder temps in the eastern US, and a more favorable setup for Winter weather-producing storm systems.


AO:

Much the same as the NAO, you will notice we had a -AO for much of October. If a -AO, there is arctic air readily available to be tapped into the eastern US.


Let me state that again.... an incorrect forecast for the NAO/ AO stage can quickly bust a Winter Forecast....that is what happened to mine last year. So, this is a very important factor.

Analog years....

Finding some ENSO analog years.....these are the 4 main Winters a looked at in terms of analogs.

2003-2004
1993-1994
1990-1991
1979-1980

Below is the temp anomaly and precip anomaly maps for each of those Winters.





Other Items

There are other considerations as well, such as the PDO, the QBO, and the solar cycle among others, but I won't spend any time here discussing those. But those factors were considered as well.

Forecast: 

One big item this forecast hinges on is the idea that the overall blocking tendency the atmosphere has shown recently will continue to some extent through the Winter. That is one baseline of the forecast. Another key component is the NAO to trend negative, at least at times.

With that in mind, for the Southeast US, I will go for a near to slightly below average temperature trend for the Winter as a whole. I will go with slightly above average precipitation for a good chunk of the Southeast.

Remember, the temperature portion of the forecast is December through January.

As for snow, remember the snowfall portion of the Winter forecast is first flake to last flake, regardless of month. Many mountain areas have already seen some good snow amounts for this time of the season.

So, the general idea is above normal snowfall for the mountain areas from NC on northward. I will go with near average snow for the foothills and the Piedmont of NC into the Upstate of SC and north Georgia and the Tennessee Valley. See the map below.






Read more...

Milder today....

Much milder weather will be with us today compared to yesterday with highs in the 50s. Look for 50s again tomorrow.

See the video for much more on our weekend weather and the big Thanksgiving week next week....

Read more...

Cold day...

>> Thursday, November 15, 2012

Some heavy, chilly rains early this morning in SC into parts of NC. Around the Charlotte metro, temps have been in the 30s with the rain this morning.

Rain will end this morning, but it will be a chilly day with highs in the 40s for much of the Piedmont.

The weather will be quiet for a couple of days, but then another coastal low will develop by Sunday. Sunday again looks chilly, and the big question is how far inland will any precip make it.

See today's video for much more...

And for those wondering, yes, I will put out a Winter Forecast. I am putting some of the final touches on it and will release it soon...

Read more...

Excellent weekend weather...

>> Friday, November 09, 2012

It's another frosty, cold morning across the region. However, highs today will rebound nicely....60s for most under a sunny sky.

The weekend will be great with lots of highs in the lower 70s with a continued sunny daytime sky.

A huge winter storm continues to unfold across the western US, and Blizzard Warnings are up in Montana as I type. The trough and cold front associated with that system will swing through here Monday night and Tuesday and bring some showers, however, at this point, the system does not look especially impressive for the eastern US.

Following that system, another shot of chilly air will settle in for the remainder of next week.

See the video for more.

Read more...

Warming trend into the weekend...

>> Thursday, November 08, 2012

First of all, a big 'thank you' to all of the great folks at News 14 for allowing me to take some time off to spend with my family after the birth of our daughter a couple of weeks ago. It is really appreciated.

On to the weather, a Nor'easter continues to pound the Northeast with snow, rain, wind, and storm surge.I document some of the impacts in today's video.

Around here, we are looking at a warming trend into the weekend. In fact, the weekend looks spectacular with sunshine and afternoon highs pushing into the lower 70s in many spots.

A sharp cold front will swing through around Tuesday followed by more chilly weather. See the video for lots of details.

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Monster storm....

>> Saturday, October 27, 2012

It is truly going to be fascinating to watch this monster of a storm system unfold. It boggles the mind to think about how all of the pieces for this to happen had to come together in exactly the 'right' way. But, all of these types of weather players are often on the field....they just rarely come together in this type of fashion. 

Honestly, I am having a difficult time getting a handle on exactly what will transpire for the New England coastal areas. There is not a ton of precedence for a system coming in at this angle with as low of a pressure as this could have. In all honesty, it could wind up being devastating coastal flooding and surge problems.

Some problems are likely along the NC Outer Banks, but the worst of the impacts from coastal surge will likely be from roughly Delmarva and New Jersey on up into New York. That is assuming the system comes ashore around NJ, which is my current thinking.

 For NC, some heavy rain and windy conditions are likely in eastern parts of the state. The rain amounts around the I 85 corridor look paltry, if there's any at all. All of the region will see winds really begin to ramp up later Sunday and especially into Monday and Monday night.

Snow... This will really be something. West Virginia looks to just get dumped on....measuring the snow in feet in some spots.

For the NC mountains, accumulating snow will almost certainly occur, the question is how much. At this time, I am thinking there will wind up being some heavy, wind driven snow in many mountain spots, and I could definitely see a 6-12" type of snow in some of the most favored areas if current trends hold. There could even be some flakes that work their way out into the Piedmont as some of the coldest 850mb temps wrap around on the south side of the system.

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Extreme weather event is possible...

>> Wednesday, October 24, 2012

If you enjoy following the weather, the possibility of an extreme weather event should pique your interest. I discuss it in the video below:

Read more...

Penelope East

>> Tuesday, October 23, 2012

I am pleased to share with you the news of the arrival of Penelope....she was born Friday evening. All are doing well.

I will be out of the weather office for a little while, but I will probably post some things here from time to time.




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Back to dry weather...

>> Friday, October 19, 2012

After showers and storms at times last evening and through the night, a cold front has advanced eastward this morning, and dry weather is returning to the region.

An extremely quiet weather pattern is ahead.....see today's video for more....

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Kenny's discussion...

>> Thursday, October 18, 2012

Showers and thunderstorms are likely today ahead the advancing cold front responsible for yesterdays severe weather outbreak across the deep south.  While I don't expect a widespread outbreak of severe weather like we've seen over the past few days, an isolated severe thunderstorm with heavy rain and damaging winds can't be ruled out.  Highs today should climb into the lower 70s. Look for shower chances to linger into the evening hours before the cold front passes through the area.  Cloud cover will keep temperatures on the mild side with lows overnight dropping into the mid 50s.  The good news is, once this front passes through the region, a ridge of high pressure builds in across the south which has all the makings for a beautiful weekend.  I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable weekend.


Kenny Egri
kennyegri@gmail.com

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Cold front brings some shower/ storm chances...



We will have a chance (albeit fairly limited) of a few strong to severe storms in the region today as a cold front moves through. I discuss that, as well as what's ahead, in today's video...

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Ahhh....

>> Wednesday, October 17, 2012

I don't know about you, but to me, there is just something uplifting and exciting about the weather this time of year. You walk outside, the leaves are falling, there is a chill in the air under a beautiful blue sky..... hard not to love this time of year.

More fantastic weather continues today with highs in the low and mid 70s across the region.

We will get a cold front in here tomorrow that will bring a quick chance of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. But after that, an extended period of quiet, beautiful October weather will be with us not only for the weekend, but much of next week too.

Here is today's video....

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Kenny Egri discussion

>> Tuesday, October 16, 2012

The showers and storms that pushed through our area yesterday have given way to beautiful conditions as a ridge of high pressure continues to build into our area throughout the day.  Accompanying this high pressure  will be light winds, low humidity, and plenty of sunshine with temperatures holding to the lower 70s. 

Overnight temperatures will also be comfortable with lows dipping down to the lower 50s.  Thursday marks the next chance for showers as a weak cold front sweeps through our area.  However, chances of showers are not very high as there isn't much moisture for the cold front to work with due to the current high pressure over our area.  Therefore, only a slight chance of showers on Thursday with daytime highs in the lower to mid 70s and evening lows in the lower 50s.  All of this before a ridge of high pressure builds back into the area behind the cold front on Friday setting the stage for what looks to be a beautiful weekend ahead.


Kenny Egri

kennyegri@gmail.com

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Back to beautiful October weather...

Here is today's video.... after some showers and storms yesterday, back to cool October sunshine today....

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Nice October weekend weather...

>> Friday, October 12, 2012

If you enjoy crisp October weather, you will look the weekend on tap.We also have some action in the tropics. Here's the video today with all of the details:

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Kenny's Thursday Discussion....

>> Thursday, October 11, 2012

A chilly start to this Thursday morning in the wake of a weak cold front that passed through our area  just a few hours ago.  Waking up temperatures have the area in the upper 40s to low 50s.  The main weather story today, is the ridge of high pressure that has set up across the southeast behind the cold front funneling in drier air.  Today and tomorrow alike will be beautiful days with plenty of sunshine and highs in the low 70s.  Night time temperatures will also be consistently chilly as we see more of the same upper 40s and lower 50s.  


This all before another weak cold front passes through our area early Friday which should only be noticed in the way of high temperatures on Saturday only reaching the upper 60s. Until next time, have a wonderful weekend.

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Beautiful October Weather...

Here is today's video....a detailed look at what's ahead, plus a peek into the longer range...

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Milder, brighter weather...

>> Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Our wedge will continue to erode away today, and the result is a lot of brighter, milder daytime weather. Nighttime temps will remain chilly over the next few nights.

Here is today's video with all of the details:

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Kenny Egri Discussion

>> Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Kenny Egri is a News 14 Carolina weather intern this semester. Kenny is finishing up is bachelor's degree in the meteorology program and UNC Charlotte. 

I will be posting his discussion here from time to time this Fall. Here is his posting for today:

A classic Carolina wedge also commonly referred to as cold air damming is a phenomena in which colder air at the lower levels in the atmosphere get trapped, or "wedged" on the eastern side of the mountains.  While it is a little more involved than just this, as a general synopsis, this is what it is happening when we refer to a Carolina wedge.  Speaking of this wedge, it kept temperatures well below average yesterday with highs only reaching the lower 50s.  Today's forecast appears to be a little better in the way of high temperatures as the wedge slowly begins to erode allowing warmer air to return.  The biggest challenge with today's forecast is a
matter of timing which will ultimately affect overall temperatures.  Modeling suggests that clouds will break way by early afternoon allowing temperatures to reach the mid 60s across the region.  However,I think these models have taken a very aggressive approach to the situation across the region.  Looking at more current observations, I expect clouds will linger a little bit longer than models suggest and keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s for the day.  Partly cloudy skies overnight tonight will only allow lows overnight to
falls into the upper 40s.  Tomorrow will be much warmer in the absence of the wedge with temperatures returning into the mid 70s before a weak cold front shifts through our area on Thursday,causing temperatures to drop slightly, but overall a beautiful week ahead.

Kenny Egri
kennyegri@gmail.com

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Wedge slow to erode, but brighter times ahead...

Here is today's edition of the video.....give it a look:

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Very chilly with rain at times today...

>> Monday, October 08, 2012

A good day today to have a pot of chili on the stove....many Piedmont and foothill locations will have temps in the 40s to lower 50s through the afternoon, and we will have rain at times.

The wedge slowly breaks down tomorrow.... here are all of the details in today's video:

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Mild today and tomorrow.... much colder Sunday...

>> Friday, October 05, 2012

A big-time temp change is on the way by Sunday. In fact, many Piedmont spots could be in the 50s all day with some rain at times Sunday.

Details in today's video:

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Sharp cold front on the way this weekend...

>> Thursday, October 04, 2012

Lots to talk about in our upcoming weather.... see today's video for more:

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Drier air working in... big plunge of chillir air on the way...

>> Wednesday, October 03, 2012

All of the details in today's video:

Read more...

Showers and storms today....drier by tomorrow...

>> Tuesday, October 02, 2012

A slow-moving storm system continues to impact the region. The result is continued scattered showers and storms today.

Drier air then takes over for most tomorrow through Saturday, and then we gear up for a chilliest air thus far this season by early next week.

Lots of details in today's video, docked below:

Read more...

Shower and storm chances return....

>> Friday, September 28, 2012

Here is today's video.... a complex forecast ahead....

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Warm today.... shower and storm chances arrive tomorrow...

>> Thursday, September 27, 2012

A cold front will begin to slide into the region tomorrow, and that will bring some showers and storms to the region by tomorrow afternoon.

It appears that front will slide down into South Carolina by Saturday, and as an area of low pressure rides along it, some showers are possible at times along with cooler temps this weekend.

The timing and placement of the rain chances over the weekend, and into next work week, is a very challenging forecast item this morning. See the video for more....

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Warmer today...

>> Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Highs in the 80s here over the next few days, and a fairly unsettled weekend forecast. Details in today's video, docked below:

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Warming trend ahead...

>> Tuesday, September 25, 2012

It's been a chilly start to the day across the region with lows in the 40s....even a few upper 30s mixed in. Highs today will again be fantastic....70s with lots of sun.

Highs return to the 80s tomorrow through Friday. A cold front will drop into and then stall out across the region this weekend, ushering in a return of shower and storm chances.

The forecast is then fairly complex for early next week....

See today's video for more....

Read more...

Chilly Autumn mornings....

>> Monday, September 24, 2012

Many mountain spots down in the 30s this morning.... many foothills and piedmont spots will down into the 40s. Expect a repeat performance tonight....even cooler in some piedmont spots tonight than what we saw this morning.

Gorgeous weather around here for the next few days with lots of sunshine. Look for a steady warming trend over the next several days as well.

Our weather forecast will also become more unsettled again as we get into the Friday-Sunday time period.

All of the details in today's video:

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Beautiful weather ahead....

>> Thursday, September 20, 2012

Here is today's video....some fantastic weather on tap. All of the details in today's video, docked below:

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Cooler, drier air has arrived....

>> Wednesday, September 19, 2012

After a wet, unsettled day yesterday, a cold front has swept the rain and storms off to the east. Northeast winds are bringing in a much cooler and drier airmass, and the result will be a nice day today. In fact, the weather looks very nice the next few days overall.

Another cold front will slide through this weekend, and the cooler air thus far this season will likely arrive by Monday and Tuesday.

Here's today's video with more....

Read more...

Showers and storms today....

>> Tuesday, September 18, 2012



Dynamic storm system rolling into the region today. This has been an interesting system to track, and there were some rotating storms around parts of the region yesterday. One of those storms moved right through the Charlotte metro.... see my twitter feed for some radar shots of that as it moved through.

Severe weather is a possibility today. Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds are the primary threats.

Some localized flash flooding issues could also arise due to saturated ground conditions in many areas.

Cooler air begins to arrive tonight.

See the video for lots more....

Read more...

Wedge still with us this morning...

>> Monday, September 17, 2012

Interesting weather day across the region yesterday. Many Piedmont and foothill locations had 60s for highs with clouds and some showers. This was due to one of our cold air damming scenarios being in play.



That wedge will slowly erode today, but we are only talking 70s for highs with clouds and some showers at times.

We will have a cold front as well as an area of low pressure near the Gulf coast play a part in our weather over the next 48 hours. As those features approach late tonight, the coverage of showers and storms should increase from the west. Tomorrow then looks unsettled with good chances of showers and storms at times. A few storms could be severe as well.

Some model discrepancies then arise for Wednesday. As the low then rides up the Atlantic coast, we could very well wind up with lots of lingering clouds and some showers. If that's the case, many spots could again have some 60s for highs.

Drier weather later this week....please see today's video for lots more on all of this...

Read more...

Still quiet today, but some subtle changes...

>> Friday, September 14, 2012

Here's today's video:

It will be a touch warmer and muggier today compared to recent days as a cold front approaches from the northwest. That front will then stall out over South Carolina this weekend.

A bit of isentropic lifting (moisture riding up and over the front) will then begin to take place as we get toward Saturday night and Sunday, leading to more clouds as well as the chances of some showers, especially in the mountains and foothills.

We will then have two separate systems move our way early next work week. One piece of energy, in the southern branch, will bring some rain and storm chances later Monday and Monday night. Then a sharp cold front will slide through by Tuesday night, bringing additional shower and storm chances.

A healthy shot of chilly air will plunge into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley behind that front, but how much of that cooler air will settle into our side of the mountains remains debatable.

Read more...

Great weather marches on.... changes ahead...

>> Thursday, September 13, 2012

The weather will remain nice and quiet over the next couple of days with dry conditions and lots of sun overall.

A cold front will drop into the region this weekend and stall out in northern South Carolina. Some moisture will try to ride up and over that front by Saturday night and Sunday and will at the minimum increase clouds. There is also the chance of some showers, mainly in the mountains and foothills.

Two systems will impact the region early next week. One southern stream system will bring some rain and storms Monday and Monday night, then a sharp cold front approaches from the northwest later Tuesday bringing some showers and storms.

A pretty good shot of cooler air looks to follow that front by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

Details on all of this, plus Nadine in the tropics, in today's video:

Read more...

Another great day....

>> Wednesday, September 12, 2012

More excellent weather across the region the next couple of days with sunshine, comfortable temps, and low humidity. Enjoy!

The rain chances with our weekend cold, while not nil, look pretty low.

Better shower and storm chances will arrive next week. A Gulf low will approach around Monday followed by a cold front Tuesday or Wednesday.

Be sure and see today's video for more....

Read more...

More excellent weather...

>> Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Here is today's video.... in it, I discuss how long this nice weather will last, a look at the weekend, and the active tropics...

Read more...

Beautiful....

>> Monday, September 10, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video...

The weather this week will simply be awesome. after some fantastic Sunday weather, more of the same is on the way. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with some low and mid 80s for the second half of the week.

Humidity levels will be quite low, a stark contrast to the extremely muggy conditions last week.

Morning lows will continue to dip well down into the 50s in the foothills and piedmont...even a couple of upper 40s can't be ruled out in the normally cooler spots.

In the mountains, a few spots had 30s for lows yesterday morning, and 40s and 50s will be the rule for lows up that way most of this week.

Read more...

Still warm and muggy..... big weather change ahead...

>> Thursday, September 06, 2012

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...

Highs today will again be in the 80s with very muggy conditions remaining in place. Locations outside of the higher elevations were largely dry yesterday, but today will feature at least some chance of some showers and storms.

Tomorrow looks mainly dry, but then we will get a round of showers and storms Saturday as a strong cold front swings in.

Nice weather change....

A beautiful stretch of September weather is on the way Sunday through basically all of next week. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s and most morning lows will be in the 50s (40s in the mountains).

Each day will feature a sunny sky with low levels of humidity. Looks great!

Read more...

Still quite muggy... looking ahead to next week...

>> Wednesday, September 05, 2012

We remain in a tropical airmass, and again today, scattered showers and storms will develop. We'll still have some scattered showers and storms tomorrow too.

Our next cold front will swing in this weekend. This one will be a game-changer. Look for some showers and storms Saturday and Saturday night, but following that front, the first real taste of Autumn-like air arrives.

Lows next week will dip into the 50s for several mornings, we will have lots of sun with low humidity, and highs will be in the 70s or 80s. Looking forward to it!

Here's today's video...

Read more...

Fairly hot today.... better shower/ storm chances ahead

>> Friday, August 31, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video....

The remnants of Isaac continue to lift north through the Ozarks and the Lower Mississippi Valley, and heavy rains will continue to impact that region and spread into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the weekend.

For our area, some isolated showers and storms can't be ruled out today, but a lot of us will be dry with highs in the lower 90s.

Better shower and storm chances will work in here this weekend, and the chances of showers and storms will likely peak Sunday and Monday.

Tropics...

The Atlantic Basin is very active. Kirk is a potent hurricane in the central Atlantic, however, it is re-curving north and northeast out to sea.

Leslie is the newest tropical system, but it too looks to curve to the north then northeast prior to threatening the US.

Read more...

Warm conditions....

>> Thursday, August 30, 2012

Isaac continues to being heavy rains to parts of the Gulf coast region and Lower Mississippi Valley, and those soaking rains will be spreading into the Ozarks and eventually Ohio Valley.

Around here, a few showers and storms will be a possibility today with warm afternoon temps.

Eventually, it appears the remnants of Isaac could enhance the chance of some showers and storms around here this weekend into early next work week.

Below is today's video.... all of this is discussed in great detail....

Read more...

Issac battering the Gulf coast

>> Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Big problems developing in parts of the Gulf coast region.... I run down some of that, as well as the local weather in the Carolinas, in today's video:

Read more...

Isaac set for landfall tonight....

>> Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Here is today's video:

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Isaac in the Gulf....

>> Monday, August 27, 2012

Here is today's video.... please see it for lots of info regarding Isaac as well as our local weather....

Read more...

Shower and storm chances return....

>> Friday, August 17, 2012

A cold front is nearing the region today, and it will stall out this weekend over Georgia and South Carolina. The result will be cooler temps this weekend along with some shower and storm chances.

See today's video for more....

Read more...

Low humidity today.... cooler and unsettled this weekend...

>> Thursday, August 16, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video...

Read more...

One front today... another for the weekend...

>> Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video:

As a cold front slides through the region today, we will have the chance of a few showers and storms. Highs will be in the mid 80s for most.

Some drier air will temporarily arrive behind that front tonight and tomorrow. Our Thursday will feature lots of sun, highs in the upper 80s, and low levels of humidity.

Our next cold front will then quickly approach late Friday. It appears that next front will stall out a little south of the area, allowing some cooler temps to arrive. However, due to the close proximity of the front, the weekend looks to feature a good deal of clouds and some occasional showers and storms.

Read more...

Scattered storms today...

>> Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video..... give it a look:

A cold front is approaching, and that front will kick off some scattered showers and storms, especially this afternoon and evening. Highs will head toward the upper 80s with some low 90s today.

A few showers and storms could linger tomorrow, and then Thursday looks dry.

A pretty deep trough for this time of year will swing into the eastern US this weekend. This trough will drive a cold front through our area Saturday. Out ahead and near the front, shower and storm chances will return later Friday and Saturday. Following the front, some cooler and drier air will try to settle in for early next week.


Read more...

Quiet Monday weather....

>> Monday, August 13, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video...

After some delightful Sunday weather across the region, the weather today will also be pretty nice, albeit a little warmer than yesterday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s under a partly cloudy sky. Although a few isolated shower or storms can't be ruled out, most spots in the piedmont and foothills should remain dry.

A cold front will swing in from the west tomorrow and bring much better chances of some afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Another system will then arrive and bring more storm chances for Friday and especially Saturday.

Tropics...

No active systems at the moment. There are lots of areas of dry air in parts of the Atlantic Basin, and that is one of the reason tropical systems are having a hard time at the moment. See the video for more...

Read more...

Cold front moving in...

>> Friday, August 10, 2012


What a soaker last night! Many spots in the mountains, foothills, and western and southern Piedmont received over 1-2" of rain last night....nice, soaking rains.

Today, as a cold front approaches,we will likely see showers and storms firing this afternoon and into tonight. A few storms could produce some damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rain.

The front will be slow to move through the area, so I will maintain the chance of some Piedmont scattered showers and storms tomorrow. However, much drier air should arrive for Sunday and Monday.

Tropics....

Ernesto continues to fall apart over Mexico.

T.D. 7 has formed out in the Atlantic, and this system will likely wind up in the Caribbean later this weekend. The system is surrounded by lots of dry air, and the upper level winds will likely become pretty hostile around the system this weekend. So, it's possible this could become Tropical Storm Gordon relatively soon, but I doubt in the short term that it can strengthen more than that.

See the video for much more....

Read more...

Isolated storms today... more active tonight and tomorrow...

>> Thursday, August 09, 2012

Lots of ground to cover in today's video... give it a look below:

We are between storm systems today, and the result will be only an isolated coverage of showers and storms this afternoon with highs in the vicinity of 90.

However, a disturbance will roll through tonight and likely bring a round of scattered showers and storms, and then an approaching cold front will mean an active weather Friday for the region.

Following that front, some drier air will try to slip into the western Carolinas. Rain chances will shift eastward Saturday, then Sunday looks dry for most folks in the region.

Tropics...

Ernesto continues to scrape near the Mexican coast down in the Bay of Campeche and will dissipate over Mexico this weekend.

There is also a very well-defined tropical wave about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and this wave will likely become our next classified system pretty soon.

Read more...

Warm with some showers/ storms...

>> Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Take a look at today's video.... a good bit happening in our weather locally over the next several days, and I take a look at Ernesto.

Once again yesterday, some portions of the area got absolutely soaked with afternoon and evening showers and storms. One persistent storm developed near Charlotte and dumped over 4" of rain in some locations.

Today, we will be back to the more typical scattered afternoon and evening storms, and some storms could produce some wind damage.

Probably only an isolated coverage of storms tomorrow, and then Friday looks active as a cold front drop in.

Ernesto...

Ernesto made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane near Mahahual, Mexico and will emerge into the Bay of Campeche later today. From there, Ernesto will make a second landfall on the Mexico mainland.

Heavy inland rains, flooding, and mudslides will continue to be the biggest problems with Ernesto.

Read more...

Another damp day...

>> Tuesday, August 07, 2012

More damp weather is on tap today with showers and storms at times across the region. Once again, some pockets of locally heavy rain will be possible.

In the tropics.... Ernesto remains a strong tropical storm as of the 5am advisory. I discuss the system in today's video, docked below....

Read more...

Shower and storm chances high...

>> Monday, August 06, 2012

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video... shower and storm chances high the next couple of days.... Ernesto and Florence in the tropics...

Read more...

Warm and muggy with scattered storms... Ernesto in the Caribbean...

>> Friday, August 03, 2012

See today's video for more on our upcoming weather as well as Ernesto...

Read more...

>> Thursday, August 02, 2012

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.....

Read more...

A few showers and storms... watching the tropics...

>> Wednesday, August 01, 2012


It will be warmer today across the region compared to yesterday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in many spots, and a few showers and storms will remain possible.

Highs tomorrow into the weekend look to be in the low to some mid 90s. Only a few isolated storms tomorrow, but some better scattered storm chances return for Friday and the weekend.

It looks fairly unsettled Sunday and Monday as another front approaches, and then we will see whether or not that front and slip to the south by Tuesday or so.

Tropics...

Our tropical wave out in the Atlantic has not gotten a lot better organized since yesterday. However, it still has a decent chance of becoming our next classified tropical system.

This system will wind up in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and I will continue to keep an eye on it.

Here is the spaghetti chart for the system this morning...


Read more...

Warm and muggy.....

>> Tuesday, July 31, 2012


A lot of our highs will be in the 80s today, and as a disturbance approaches from the Tennessee Valley, the chance of some showers and storms will be with us. It's a challenging forecast today....a lot of the showers and storms might stay south and west of much of NC, but we will see.

Heat will slowly build later this week with highs back in the low and mid 90s.

Tropics...

Keeping an eye on a tropical wave in the southern Atlantic. This wave could slowly organize, and the computer guidance takes the system near the northern Caribbean down the road. Here's the spaghetti chart this morning:




Read more...

Heat at tolerable levels....

>> Monday, July 30, 2012

A lot of Piedmont locations will fail to hit 90 degrees today and tomorrow. Not bad. A few showers and storms will remain possible with a greater coverage of storms on the way tomorrow and Wednesday.

The heat slowly builds again later this week.....but nothing too extreme.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

Heading into the weekend....

>> Friday, July 27, 2012

Scattered storms return to the forecast today after a hot and mainly dry Thursday. A few storms could be severe today. Damaging winds will be the biggest threat with some hail potential too.



For the final weekend in July, look for highs in the low and mid 90s with a few afternoon storms remaining possible.

Next week is looking unsettled with good daily storm chances Monday onward. Highs will ease down a bit as well due to more clouds and storms.

Read more...

Showers and storms.....

>> Friday, July 20, 2012

A frontal boundary is dropping into the region today, and it will stall out through the weekend. This will mean a good coverage of showers and storms over the next few days.

Some storms will produce damaging winds, and any storm could also produce locally heavy rain and lots of lightning.

Here is today's video:

Read more...

Hot and humid..... better storm chances ahead...

>> Wednesday, July 18, 2012


Another hot day today across the region with highs in the mid 90s. Heat index values will likely meet or exceed 100 at this this afternoon. A few storms will also fire with the daytime heating.

A cold front will begin to near the region tomorrow and increase the coverage of showers and storms. Friday looks pretty unsettled as the front actually moves through.

Over the weekend, the front will stall out just to our south. Highs will be in the 80s, but with the close proximity of the front, the chance of some showers and storms needs to be maintained.

Read more...

Hot and humid....

>> Tuesday, July 17, 2012


Summertime stuff over the next couple of days with highs in the 90s, muggy conditions, and a few mainly afternoon and evening storms. Like we have seen recently, a few storms could be severe, and since the upper level winds are so light, the storms will move slowly and produce locally heavy rain. However, I think many spots will remain dry today and tomorrow.

An approaching cold front will really ramp up the shower and storm chances Thursday and Friday, and then cooler temps will follow that front over the weekend as it stalls out over South Carolina. However, it appears some clouds and maybe some showers could linger as the weekend unfolds.




Read more...

Back at it...

>> Monday, July 16, 2012

Back into the regular routine today after some time away from the weather charts last week.


Our work week is beginning with the chance of some scattered showers and storms as an upper level impulse drops in from the northwest. Highs today will be in the lower 90s for most.

The rain chances look lower tomorrow, but then they will ramp back up again later this week as a cold front nears. Thursday and Friday look pretty unsettled, and then some drier air looks to try and slip in here from the north later this weekend.

Read more...

A hot weekend, but big changes next week....

>> Friday, July 06, 2012

Highs will surge into the upper 90s and lower 100s through the weekend, and a few afternoon storms will remain possible.

Big-time weather changes will take place next week. It will be much cooler and very unsettled with lots of showers and storms. Se the video for more:

Read more...

Heat increasing a bit... pattern change ahead...

>> Thursday, July 05, 2012

I hope everybody had a great Fourth!

Highs are creeping upward again across the region, and we will have lots of upper 90s and lower 100s for highs through the weekend. We will also have daily storm chances, focused during the afternoon and evening.

However, a pattern change is in the offing.... details in today's video...

Read more...

Hot, humid, a few PM storms...

>> Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Summertime weather will continue across the region with hot, humid conditions and daily chances of at least a few PM storms. Highs in many areas will remain in the mid to upper 90s into the weekend.

There are some indications of a pattern shift next week.....a shift to a pattern that would favor troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. If that's correct, look for a cooler overall setup as we get deeper into July.

Here is today's video...

Read more...

Lazy, hazy days of summer....

>> Monday, July 02, 2012

What a weekend of heat! Plenty of triple digit heat Friday through Sunday across the region, and many all-time record highs were tied or broken around the Southeast.

In Charlotte, the high was 104 all three days, tying the all-time record high for three consecutive days.

This week will feature more heat, although more of the mid and upper 90s variety as opposed to the triple digits. This week will also feature daily storm chances.

Read more...

Dangerous levels of heat....

>> Friday, June 29, 2012

Highs will surge above 100 degrees for many in the region today through Monday. Afternoon heat index values will exceed 105 and even 110 in some spots through the weekend.

This is the dangerous type of heat and humidity. Please use lots of common sense with any outdoor activities, and please check on anyone you know that does not have access to reliable air conditioning.

In the video, a misspoke about the Excessive Heat Warnings.... they begin tomorrow. Only Heat Advisories out for today....

Here is today's video.... see if for lots of additional information:

Read more...

Excessive heat on the way....

>> Thursday, June 28, 2012

The heat wave is beginning. Record highs will tumble in coming days, and a couple of all-time record highs might even get tied or broken.

Here is today's video:

Read more...

>> Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Another nice day today with some 80s for highs with low humidity, but a big-time heat wave is on the way.

Highs will near or exceed 100 in many spots in the region Friday through Monday, and it will be pretty muggy as well. So, heat will be reaching up into dangerous levels through the weekend.


Read more...

Beautiful today.... big-time heat later this week....

>> Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Read more...

Scattered storms today... Beautiful tomorrow.... Debby thoughts...

>> Monday, June 25, 2012

Take a look at today's video... a whole lot to talk about today...


A cold front will slide through the region from the north tonight. Ahead of that front,  some scattered showers and storms will fire this afternoon and evening.

We will briefly get a delightful airmass in place tomorrow and Wednesday. Highs will struggle to make it into the lower 80s in the Piedmont tomorrow, and we will also have tons of sun and low humidity. It will be warmer Wednesday but still low humidity.

The heat will then really try to build back in here later this week. In fact, some modeling cranks our temps over 100 by Friday and Saturday. I am not going that extreme yet, but just be aware that the heat and humidity will make a big comeback later this week.

Debby....

Tons of uncertainty with the long-term track of Debby. The system is ragged this morning, and I don't anticipate any significant strengthening in the short-term. The system will likely crawl generally northward toward north Florida.

Some models (Euro, Canadian, GFS) take Debby across north Florida over the Gulf stream waters where the system then sits for days and days in weak steering currents. Other models take the system inland over the Deep South.

I am favoring the 'across north Florida' scenario at the moment, but that could easily be incorrect. Stay tuned....

Read more...

Debby thoughts....

>> Saturday, June 23, 2012

Invest 96 L will likely get classified as Tropical Storm Debby this afternoon. Where the system will eventually head is ..... well... uncertain is about as good as it gets.

Check out the latest spaghetti plots.....yikes. See some explanation below....



In terms of a few specific models, the new Euro model remains consistent with a track eventually into Texas. The GFS continues to shoot Debby across Florida. The Canadian is heading right up the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The differences aloft in the Euro and GFS models are fairly subtle, but there is slightly more ridging on top of the system from the Plains states on the Euro than the GFS, and that keeps the system suppressed far enough south that the trough swinging into the eastern US misses picking up Debby.

Which of these model camps is correct should be more evident by this time tomorrow.

All interests along the Gulf coast, from Texas to Florida, need to monitor the progress of Debby.

Read more...

Scattered storms today.... watching the Gulf...

>> Friday, June 22, 2012

Here is today's video.... give it a look:


A cold front is nearing the region today and will kick off a good number of showers and storms as we head through this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds being the primary threat. Any storms could also produce vivid lightning and locally heavy rain.

A few storms are possible this weekend, especially through southern NC.

A wonderful breath of fresh air is on the way by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Cooler temps and low humidity on the way for that time period.

Tropics...

It sure look like we will be talking about Debbie in coming days. If necessary, a recon flight will head into the developing low pressure this afternoon. The model guidance continues to show a lot of spread, as you would expect with a yet-to-be-developed system. For instance, the European model, which yesterday took Debbie across N FL and then off the Carolina coast, now takes the system to Texas.

It is simply too soon to know where this system will eventually wind up, but all interests along the Gulf coast need to monitor the system's progress.

Read more...

Hot....

>> Thursday, June 21, 2012

Here's today's video..... lots happening....take a look:

Lots of highs today will head into the mid 90s across the region. It will also be quite muggy....altogether, a pretty uncomfortable day.

Isolated showers and storms will fire this afternoon and evening, but much better shower and storm chances arrive tomorrow afternoon with the approach of a cold front. The front then washes out over the weekend, so a few storms will remain possible, but the chances will be decreased from Friday's levels.

Interesting goings-on in the tropics. Chris is a non-issue out in the north Atlantic. However, of greater interest is what's happening in the western Caribbean Sea. The European and Canadian model both develop this into a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The Canadian then eventually takes the system west toward Texas while the Euro model strengthens the system, moves it into north Florida then up near the Carolina coast next week. Stay tuned....

Canadian valid Tuesday evening:



European valid Friday morning:


Read more...

Getting hotter and muggier....

>> Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Highs today will approach 90 in many areas in the region, and then I expect highs to exceed 90 in many spots tomorrow through Saturday.

Not only is it getting hotter, it is getting muggier as well, and this will be a pretty good little dose of summer heat and humidity.

There are some signs of the heat trying to back down a bit by early next week. See the video below for details....

Read more...

Heat and humidity build this week...

>> Monday, June 18, 2012

After simply wonderful weather for the Father's Day weekend, heat and humidity will build this week. By Wednesday, I anticipate a lot of lower 90s for highs, and that will likely extend right on into the upcoming weekend.

Some afternoon storms will also fire in some parts of the region today.... see the video for all of the details....

Read more...

Beautiful weekend.... heating up next week...

>> Friday, June 15, 2012

Fantastic weather will unfold through the weekend with lower 80s for highs, lots of sun, low humidity, and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Enjoy.....it will really heat up next week.

Here's the details in this morning's video:

Read more...

Drier air has arrived....

>> Thursday, June 14, 2012

As soon as you step out the door this morning, you will notice the difference in terms of how it feels out there. Dewpoints have dropped into the lower 50s, and many temps across the Piedmont have fallen into the 50s as well.

Fantastic weather is on the way this weekend.....here's the video with the details:

Read more...

Drier air poised to arrive....

>> Wednesday, June 13, 2012

We are transitioning from our exceedingly muggy airmass to a much drier one. A few showers and storms are possible across southern NC today, but then a very pleasant June airmass will completely take over tomorrow into early next week.

Here's the details in today's video:

Read more...

One more unsettled day....

>> Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Today will again feature scattered showers and storms across the region, but an extended period of dry and pleasant weather is in the offing. Here's today's video to discuss it:

Read more...

Unsettled for a couple of days....

>> Monday, June 11, 2012

Showers and storms highlight our forecast today and tomorrow as a very soupy tropical airmass is in place. Here is today's video with all of the details:



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Warming up... unsettled next work week...

>> Friday, June 08, 2012

Highs will warm through the 80s as we head into the weekend.

The weekend will be a wet one across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Deep South, and that slow-moving system will give us unsettled weather for much of next work week.

See all of the details in today's edition of the video. I am using some of our on-air graphics for News 14 in the video today....

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Cooler with some shower chances...

>> Tuesday, June 05, 2012

We had a batch of rain move through the region last night into this morning, and a few additional showers are a possibility today through Thursday.

Highs the next few days will be in the 70s with heat then building into the weekend. Some spots could hit 90 by Sunday and Monday.

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Severe weather potential today...

>> Friday, June 01, 2012

A potent storm system continues to swing into the region today. Showers and storms highlight the forecast, and we will likely wind up with a broken line of storms moving through from mid-afternoon into early evening from west to east.

See the video above... I run down some of the various severe weather parameters in play today.

The basic idea is that damaging winds are our primary severe weather threat. However, isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, nor can some hail.

This also means that weather could be an issue for the college baseball regionals across the region today. However, the weather looks great starting tomorrow.

Delightful weather will then unfold through the weekend. Highs tomorrow should be in the 70s with low humidity.

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Warm today with a few storms... unsettled Friday weather...

>> Thursday, May 31, 2012

A frontal boundary remains draped across the region behind the departed Beryl. That front will lift north by this evening as a warm front and will kick off a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening.

It will be quite warm today with highs in the upper 80s...even a few lower 90s possible.

The past couple of days have been extremely active in the Plains. Hundreds and hundreds of severe reports have come in, and that system will move into our region tomorrow. I expect an active Friday around here with showers and storms. Some storms will likely wind up being severe. Damaging winds will be the big threat, but isolated tornadoes and hail are also possible.

This also means the weather could be a challenge for the regionals that begin tomorrow in Chapel Hill, Raleigh, and Columbia. The good news is the weather should be perfect Saturday and Sunday.

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Beryl sending rain into the region...

>> Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Tropical Depression Beryl will continue to lift northeast from south Georgia and up into the eastern Carolinas through tomorrow. Widespread rain totals of 2-3+" are possible through the eastern Carolinas, while almost everybody in the region should see at least some rain. Some rain totals have exceeded a foot in parts of northern Florida with Beryl. For the Piedmont, look for scattered showers and storms today and tonight. The showers/ storms will likely be effective rain-producers in this moisture-laden airmass. Another cold front will move in Friday. That system looks rather potent, and some severe weather looks like a possibility. Behind that front, the weather looks great for the weekend with dry conditions and lower humidity.

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Watching the coast....

>> Friday, May 25, 2012

All eyes are on a developing low pressure that might become 'Beryl' this weekend. Here is today's edition of the video....with some new content! I apologize for the annoying humming noise....working out some bugs still.

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Scattered storms today....heat on the way...

>> Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....


After a day and night that featured widespread rain and storms, I expect more scattered showers and storms today. Again, any storm could produce lots of lightning, locally heavy rain, and the potential for some hail and damaging wind gusts.

Heat will build Friday through the weekend. I think our weekend highs will be close to 90 for many in the region, but rain chances look very slim. So, overall, pretty good news for the races out at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

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Monday....

>> Monday, May 21, 2012

Had a wonderful time emceeing a Time Warner event in conjunction with the All-Star race out at Charlotte Motor Speedway Saturday. Met some great folks and had a great time. I greatly appreciate the opportunity to do that.

The only downside is that I lost a large portion of my voice....so, if you notice I sound strange (stranger than normal anyway!) on-air today, that's why.

Tropical Storm Alberto formed Saturday off the SC coast, and it's currently located east of the FL and GA coasts. Alberto will head northeast and out to sea, remaining offshore. A few showers will occur along the coast today and tomorrow, and there will be a slightly higher rip-current potential, but not a huge deal if you have beach plans. 

Around here, look for a few showers and storms today, and then showers and storms look likely tomorrow and Wednesday as a cold front nears.


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Drier air poised to arrive....

>> Thursday, May 17, 2012

**No video this morning due to the launch of our new graphics system. **

A much drier airmass is located just to our north, and over the next 24 hours, that will take hold across the region. The result will be a much drier weather setup for us over the next few days.

Highs today will warm to near the lower 80s, and there still could be an isolated storm or two, especially over southern sections. Lows tonight will drop well down into the 50s.

I am going with a dry forecast tomorrow with low humidity and highs in the 70s. The forecast Saturday looks much the same.

Some modeling brings in some rain chances Sunday, but for the time being, I will hold off on any shower or storm chances until Monday onward.

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Trending toward drier weather...

>> Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video...


A pretty mean complex of overnight storms moved through the region producing some incredibly vivid lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. That complex has continue to press east through the region this morning.

Later today, we will have some scattered showers and storms fire. Today, the farther east and south you go in the region, the better the storm chances will be. Highs will warm to 80 or above in many spots.

For much of the Piedmont, a dry forecast returns tomorrow, and it will likely stick around through the weekend. Look for lower levels of humidity as well. All in all, some nice weather for the second half of the week.

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Unsettled again today...drier times ahead...

>> Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Above is a photo submitted by Beth Hall, a viewer in Rockingham County. This photo shots an apparent tornado. The NWS will conduct a storm survey in the area today. 

It was a pretty active afternoon and evening across the region yesterday. We had numerous showers and storms, and some of the storms were severe.

In addition to the severe weather, tons of rain has fallen, and we have some areas in the 4-5"+ rain for rain totals over the past couple of days.

More scattered showers and storms will fire this afternoon and evening as an upper level disturbance moves in. Once again, some storms could be strong to severe, and any additional areas of heavy rain will likely cause some flooding issues.

The zone of best shower and storms chances begins to ease eastward tomorrow, and I think by the time Thursday arrives, we are looking at a mainly dry forecast.

The weekend weather still looks very nice, and I still see no weather problems for the All-Star race out at Charlotte Motor Speedway Saturday evening.

Here is today's edition of the video:

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