Gustav a Category 4

Gustav now has maximum sustained winds of 125mph, making it a Category Four hurricane. Landfall ideas really unchanged.

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Turning a Page...

Today marks my final day in the evening shift here at News 14 Carolina. Bob Child has decided to step back from being full-time here at the big 14. For those that don't know, Bob is a talented guy in many different ways, and I know he is looking forward to spending more time on some of his creative interests.

So, beginning Monday morning, I am moving into the Monday-Friday AM shift for the Greensboro market. I have always loved the morning shift when I have done it on a fill-in basis. I am so excited to get started, and I hope all of you folks in the Triad will start your mornings off with me and with News 14 Carolina. I know I am eager to give you your Wake-Up Weather and tell you what to expect for the day as you head out the door.

Believe it or not, I have been in the Wednesday-Sunday shift, mainly evenings, for my entire career up until this point. Even back at WTVA, my previous station, I was Wednesday through Sunday. I have not had weekends off since I was 20 years old.

But the biggest thing I am thankful for with this new shift involves my family. This new shift will allow me so much more time with my kids, and I am so excited about it. I will not have to miss any more soccer games or t-ball games, and I can actually tuck my kids in to bed on a regular basis. My family has sacrificed a lot for me thus far in my career....we lived in 5 different homes between 2003 and 2006. I am very thankful to have found some stability here with News 14 Carolina, and I am glad we have actually been able to put down some roots. And now I will be able to spend the time with my family that I have been hopeful for.

So at any rate, for the Charlotte market, you won't see me on weekend evenings anymore. However, I will be on the air for some midday and morning weekday shifts from time to time. And I will not be on for the Triad market on Thursday and Friday evenings. However, like I mentioned, you folks in the Triad will get to put up with me every Monday through Friday morning.

I am thankful for this opportunity, and I am very excited to get started. I am ready to take that bull by the horns and run with it.

In terms of the tropics, I do not have any changes with my earlier ideas. Gustav is getting set to explode in intensity, and I would expect this to be a major hurricane sooner rather than later. This will be a very big deal for the central Gulf coast.

Hanna still has lots of question marks with it, but I am getting the feeling more and more that this could wind up in the Gulf.

Let me know what you think in terms of the new blog layout, and please let me know any suggestions you have.

And of course, college football season is here. My MSU Bulldogs open up the season tomorrow evening at 6:45 at Louisiana Tech...the game is on ESPN2.

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**UNDER CONSTRUCTION**

Working on some improvements to the blog this evening.....hopefully this won't last too long....

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Gustav now a hurricane

A recon plane has found that Gustav has become a hurricane once again. It looks like the period of fairly rapid intensification might be beginning now....latest extrapolated pressure was down to 978mb.

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Model Data...

Here is a quick video I put together on Google Earth showing the model plots for Gustav and Hanna. Still getting the hang of Google Earth, so forgive the jumpiness.

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Friday morning...

Good morning! Let's talk tropics....

Gustav: The table looks set for Gustav to rapidly strengthen over the next couple of days. I expect Gustav to become a major hurricane, and it might happen before it even reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

My ideas are unchanged in terms of landfall. I think the most likely landfall location is somewhere between Lake Charles, LA and Pascagoula, MS late Monday night or Tuesday. I notice the UKMET model turns Gustav southwest once it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico, but that is an outlying solution.

Anyone with interests on the Gulf coast from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle needs to continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For those heading to the App State-LSU game, I don't think you have any major problems in terms of the actual weather. The only problems would potentially be with traffic heading home due to evacuations in Louisiana.

Hanna: Hanna will continue moving WNW for a few more days, and then the steering currents relax. After that, it is still anybody's guess where Hanna eventually tracks. There is a growing consensus amongst the modeling that Hanna could then make an odd SW track and head to or south of south Florida and toward the northern Gulf coast. Quite an odd track, but we shall see.

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And then there were two....

Whew.....what a day yesterday. After literally no sleep the night before due to the rain and winds, I got in to work at 1:40am and I did not leave News 14 until after 2pm. Came home, waved to my family, and took a nap for a couple of hours. After a calm evening, I think I am back to close to 100%.

At any rate, Gustav has begun the strengthening process once again and is looking pretty healthy this morning. I still am sticking with a most likely landfall spot between Lake Charles, LA and Pascagoula, MS. More generically, if you have interests on the Gulf coast between the upper Texas coast and the Florida Panhandle, you need to closely monitor Gustav.

I still think Gustav could become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

And, our next tropical disturbance, 95L, has become a tropical depression and will likely become Tropical Storm Hanna soon. The track guidance for this one is all over the place, but a generally NW or WNW motion should continue to a while before we see a bend back to the W or SW. This one could wind up impacting the Bahamas, Cuba, and/or the East coast. We will be talking much more about Hanna-to-be in the coming days.

Please note I have updated the information in the right-hand column....it is all auto-updating, and there is some good info there on Gustav and TD8.

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Flooding problems...

Big-time flooding problems continue across portions of the viewing area....especially in Mecklenburg and Cabarrus counties. Lots of roads have been closed, and Cabarrus County School are closed for the day.

Apartment buildings and home have been flooded as well as numerous automobiles. Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for further news on the flooding from this morning's rains.

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New tornado watch until 10am...

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2am Wednesday...

I am now in the Captain's chair for the Charlotte market. Could not sleep at all....toss, turn, toss, turn, repeat....literally no sleep. I don't think my wife was faring much better. I know the kids kept being quite restless....probably all just because of the rainy, blustery night. But that's OK...hopefully an extra cup of coffee or two will do the trick.

I know Jeff definitely put in a LONG day yesterday....I know that bed will feel extra-comfy to him this morning.

Looks like the back edge of the current batch of heavy rain and embedded storms will slowly work through the area from west to east. Just starting the forecasting process now, so more later.

Quick note on Gustav....I would anticipate oil prices to start to rise again and lots of folks get jittery of the system's eventual track. Don't know how much, but I expect a significant rise of crude oil prices....hopefully I am wrong.

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Continued Tornado Threat...

Looks like there is a ton of helicity, or turning of the winds with height, out there this afternoon/ early evening. It looks like the showers and storms are having no problems beginning to rotate, and I expect the tornado threat to continue into this evening across much of the southern Piedmont. In fact, there is a chance we will see the SPC include more counties in a Tornado Watch.

Check out this MCD...click to read the text.

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Tornado Threat...

Tornado threat definitely looks real today....and these are normally fairly weak and tough to pick up on radar.

I will be in and out (I am off today), but keep it with News 14 Carolina for the latest....

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Gustav could become a major hurricane...interesting weather here too...

Gustav is a 90mph hurricane this morning, and land interaction with southwestern Haiti will occur with the next 12 hours or so. However, after that, Gustav will likely bend back to the WNW or W and head through the bath water-warm water temps just south of Cuba. As Gustav traverses the south side of Cuba, it has the chance to become a major hurricane.

There is still a good deal of divergence in the model data down the road, however, I am now confident this will head into the Gulf of Mexico. To me, the most likely scenario at this point looks to be an eventual landfall on the central or western Gulf coast. And odds favor this being a significant hurricane. All interests along the Gulf coast need to closely monitor Gustav.

App State is down in Baton Rouge Saturday to take on LSU, and my Mississippi State Bulldogs are in Ruston to open the season with Louisiana Tech. Gustav should not be an issue....Gulf landfall would likely be next work week.

Around here, a wet day is on tap as tropical moisture continues to get lifted up our way. In the Piedmont, 1-3" of rain could fall between this morning and tomorrow, with some locally heavier amounts possible. Even higher amounts of rain will occur in the mountains and foothills.

I do need to mention there is some risk for a spin-off tornado, especially this afternoon and tonight. Obviously, instability values will not be very high due to the clouds and rain. However, helicity values look to be very high, so even though the wind fields (speed of the winds) are not overly impressive, a couple of tornadoes look possible.

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Gustav

Recon has found Gustav is a 60mph tropical storm. Odds are this will become a hurricane sooner rather than later.

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TD 7

Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Looks like this one will head generally northwestward. This is probably another case of the stronger the system is, the farther north it will track and vice versa. This will likely become Gustav soon. All of the information has been switched over to this system on the right side column.

Grace's first day of preschool went well. Time to squeeze in some yard work over the next couple of hours and then see if we can get soccer practice in amongst the showers.

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Time keeps on rolling....

School has begun for lots of kids around the region already, but Monday is a big day in the East household......Monday will be Grace's, my middle daughter, first day of pre-school.

Wow. When I took the job here at News 14 Carolina, Grace was only 8 months old. Now she is starting pre-school and we have another daughter that is almost 2 to go along with Grace and Jayden. And not only does pre-school start, but Monday evening is Grace's first night of soccer practice. I am the head coach of her team, and she is very excited about the big day tomorrow (so am I).

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Wet week ahead...

Fay's moisture will get drawn up our direction this week, and the result will be good rain chances on a daily basis. And the prospect of some healthy rain amounts still look good.

Here is the HPC 5-day precip map.....

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